Apple Car Challenges: Sobering Thoughts • Hacker News Board

Re: Apple Car Challenges: Sobering Thoughts

#21

Post by [deleted] » Mon, Jan 18, 2016, 5:45 PM UTC

kozak wrote: post #7

phkahler wrote: post #5

I hate the term "range anxiety". The industry used to throw it around all the time. That term shifts the blame from the product to the customer. The issue is that a vehicle with a range under 100 miles is not that useful. I could drive a car like that to work most days, but I could not make a significant deviation - to go to another work facility, customer or supplier site, or even to see a friend for dinner after wo…

I live in a climate where you can potentially get stuck in the snow for few hours when going between cities (that happens maybe once per year, but today is exactly such a day, for example). In a gasoline car you would at least stay warm while waiting for the road to be unblocked. With an electric car, this might easily turn into a survival situation.

[deleted]

Re: Apple Car Challenges: Sobering Thoughts

#22

Post by rhino369 » Mon, Jan 18, 2016, 5:46 PM UTC

phkahler wrote: post #5

I hate the term "range anxiety". The industry used to throw it around all the time. That term shifts the blame from the product to the customer. The issue is that a vehicle with a range under 100 miles is not that useful. I could drive a car like that to work most days, but I could not make a significant deviation - to go to another work facility, customer or supplier site, or even to see a friend for dinner after wo…

"Range anxiety" is why I like the drivetrain in the Volt.

Re: Apple Car Challenges: Sobering Thoughts

#23

Post by jobu » Mon, Jan 18, 2016, 5:48 PM UTC

kozak wrote: post #7

phkahler wrote: post #5

I hate the term "range anxiety". The industry used to throw it around all the time. That term shifts the blame from the product to the customer. The issue is that a vehicle with a range under 100 miles is not that useful. I could drive a car like that to work most days, but I could not make a significant deviation - to go to another work facility, customer or supplier site, or even to see a friend for dinner after wo…

I live in a climate where you can potentially get stuck in the snow for few hours when going between cities (that happens maybe once per year, but today is exactly such a day, for example). In a gasoline car you would at least stay warm while waiting for the road to be unblocked. With an electric car, this might easily turn into a survival situation.

Not only that, but most lithium ion batteries don't function very well below freezing: http://batteryuniversity.com/learn/article/charging_at_high_...

This past weekend the high temperatures in large parts of the midwest were below the cutoff point.

Re: Apple Car Challenges: Sobering Thoughts

#24

Post by recursive » Mon, Jan 18, 2016, 5:50 PM UTC

beambot wrote: post #15

gfodor wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Being stuck in traffic barely drains the battery. It's range anxiety, not time anxiety.

What about running the heater to stay alive and defrosted?

10 horsepower is more than 7 kilowatts of output. I think a typical car heater uses much less than this. Perhaps someone knows more precise figures.

Re: Apple Car Challenges: Sobering Thoughts

#25

Post by wmeredith » Mon, Jan 18, 2016, 5:50 PM UTC

iambateman wrote: post #8

I think people forget Tim Cook's background in supply chain. He is one of the most experienced "process-oriented" managers in the world, backed up by $203 billion in cash, with a reputation for lifestyle products and a strong team. I don't think he has underestimated the challenge.

I also thought the point made about innovation in production technology being the main driver of success in the auto industry as something that would be very attractive for Apple. Many, if not most, of their breakthroughs in the last few years have been in hardware manufacturing tech.

Re: Apple Car Challenges: Sobering Thoughts

#26

Post by hueving » Mon, Jan 18, 2016, 5:51 PM UTC

stcredzero wrote: post #3

there’s no Moore’s Law for batteries — their “power” doesn’t double every 18 or 24 months. However, industry-wide figures for power density show a clear upward trend. It's not exponential like Moore's law, but in just under a decade or so, electric cars are going to have range parity with gasoline ones. Also, the graph is misleading. If you combine Tesla EV and other EVs, there is a very promising upward curve in the…

>but in just under a decade or so, electric cars are going to have range parity with gasoline ones.

Only if investment and breakthroughs continue. Moore's law worked out well because people kept buying computers constantly since they were useful even while much slower. When it comes to electric cars though, there is little incentive for consumers to buy them at the moment so there is a significant risk of investment petering out.

Re: Apple Car Challenges: Sobering Thoughts

#27

Post by dangrossman » Mon, Jan 18, 2016, 5:58 PM UTC

jobu wrote: post #23

kozak wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I live in a climate where you can potentially get stuck in the snow for few hours when going between cities (that happens maybe once per year, but today is exactly such a day, for example). In a gasoline car you would at least stay warm while waiting for the road to be unblocked. With an electric car, this might easily turn into a survival situation.

Not only that, but most lithium ion batteries don't function very well below freezing: http://batteryuniversity.com/learn/article/charging_at_high_... This past weekend the high temperatures in large parts of the midwest were below the cutoff point.

EV battery packs have heaters to keep the batteries from getting too cold. The Model S is the best-selling car in snowy Norway. I'm in Pennsylvania, it's below freezing every night in the winter (and often all day), and my Nissan Leaf doesn't mind at all.

Re: Apple Car Challenges: Sobering Thoughts

#28

Post by gutnor » Mon, Jan 18, 2016, 5:59 PM UTC

phkahler wrote: post #5

I hate the term "range anxiety". The industry used to throw it around all the time. That term shifts the blame from the product to the customer. The issue is that a vehicle with a range under 100 miles is not that useful. I could drive a car like that to work most days, but I could not make a significant deviation - to go to another work facility, customer or supplier site, or even to see a friend for dinner after wo…

Another point to that, is that the default assumption, even for a Tesla is that you can charge it at home during the night. For people living in a flat with car on the street, that means going to a charging station on a regular basis for a full charge.

That is beyond anxiety, it means planning your life around your car range, instead of the other way around. And with the current availability of charging stations, it also determine the place you are allowed to go, that's a very big drawback for people that use their car mainly on the weekend for leisure.

Re: Apple Car Challenges: Sobering Thoughts

#29

Post by vonmoltke » Mon, Jan 18, 2016, 6:01 PM UTC

recursive wrote: post #24

beambot wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What about running the heater to stay alive and defrosted?

10 horsepower is more than 7 kilowatts of output. I think a typical car heater uses much less than this. Perhaps someone knows more precise figures.

A typical car heater is "free" in the sense that the heat is generated using the engine coolant. An ICE-powered car as a small heat exchanger called the heater box in the passenger cabin. When the heater is on, a door opens and directs air through the heater box before being blown back into the cabin. As long as the car is running and the engine is hot, you get heat.

Re: Apple Car Challenges: Sobering Thoughts

#30

Post by zardo » Mon, Jan 18, 2016, 6:05 PM UTC

joesmo wrote: post #2

If Apple doesn't do it or do it properly, someone else will. Who really cares what company ends up making good, safe, reliable electric cars? I think it goes without saying that they're not going to use the same engineering techniques they use for their other software to develop the software for the car. It's not about culture. It's about adopting very stringent procedures similar to NASA, aeronautics firms, and othe…

I don't know about airplanes, but cars certainly have their issues. The problem of developing highly reliable software isn't really a solved one. If anything, I think Apple has the advantage of not already being entrenched in an old process.