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Finland’s basic income plan could change everything

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Re: Finland’s basic income plan could change everything

#221

Post by gnaritas »

nradov wrote: post #207
gnaritas wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is extremely optimistic. It's inevitable. > We don't have AI that advanced Correct. > or evidence that AI will get that advanced any time soon. That's incorrect. The trend is obvious, watson can already out diagnose a doctor. AI doesn't have to work like a human to out do a human just as planes don't have to flap their wings. > What IS coming soon is automation of mindless, lower-level jobs. That is coming, bu…

Religious fanatics believe that coming off the messiah is inevitable. You don't have any more evidence than they do. This belief that general AI will show up soon and change the world is nothing more than a secular religion.

That's a straw-man. There's plenty of evidence that even limited non general purpose AI will harm the job market enough cause massive social issues; I was very clear, general AI is not necessary for these things to be problems. Self driving cars alone will cause massive unemployment across many sectors over the next decade as it becomes common and unemployment need only get so high before social change is forced.

As for the inevitability of general purpose AI, that's not an unfounded religious belief based on nonsense from the ignorant, it's an obvious and practical step that will be taken because there's every reason to believe it's possible and no reason to believe brains are magical and intelligence isn't achievable, and tons of the smartest people in the world are actively trying to do it. Informed and logical predictions are nothing like superstition and to say there's no evidence is just willful blindness.

Re: Finland’s basic income plan could change everything

#222

Post by camikazeg »

vinceguidry wrote: post #12

I'm cautiously enthusiastic about basic income. I want to believe that it really can change everything, until that nagging doubt of "but human nature just doesn't work that way!" inevitably kills the buzz. The idea behind basic income is to remove day-to-day struggle from people's lives. If only they didn't have to worry where their next rent check is coming from, then potentially a huge groundswell of human capital…

There are also plenty of children of wealthy families that essentially receive checks from their parents every month that they live on, in exchange for no real work responsibilities.

I would say that there's a fair sized wave of accomplishment coming out of this group. Has Zuckerberg ever had to have a real job?

They are both cherry picked groups, and have vastly different backgrounds that affect their level of productivity. Giving everyone $8,000 per year would have vastly different results for different people. It's hard to say what the net effect would be.

Re: Finland’s basic income plan could change everything

#223

Post by beat »

kwhitefoot wrote: post #215
beat wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's different for me. I know a bunch of people who are deeply creative, artists and musicians and such, who spend enormous amounts of time volunteering their productivity - or what's left of it, after "earning a living". I'd love to see them with the opportunity to not have to worry about eating, so they could make things instead. The conflation of value and money is one of the worst things about our society. Money…

Why is this comment grey?

Because political partisan trolls went through and downvoted everything I said on this subject. Happens every time. :(

Re: Finland’s basic income plan could change everything

#224

Post by Grishnakh »

gnaritas wrote: post #221
nradov wrote: post #207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Religious fanatics believe that coming off the messiah is inevitable. You don't have any more evidence than they do. This belief that general AI will show up soon and change the world is nothing more than a secular religion.

That's a straw-man. There's plenty of evidence that even limited non general purpose AI will harm the job market enough cause massive social issues; I was very clear, general AI is not necessary for these things to be problems. Self driving cars alone will cause massive unemployment across many sectors over the next decade as it becomes common and unemployment need only get so high before social change is forced. As…

They've been working on AI for ages now with little to show for it.

People have been saying the exact same thing about fusion, and it's always "20 years away", but we're no closer to having fusion power than we were 40 years ago.

Re: Finland’s basic income plan could change everything

#225

Post by namlem »

topspin wrote: post #96
mikeash wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The people who receive checks from the government every month are already preselected for failure. You don't get a government check at random, you get it for being disabled, for being too old to work, for being incapable of holding down any sort of job, etc. Looking at them to see how the population at large might react to basic income is not going to be informative.

Right, so the new check recipients will be people that were otherwise capable of sustaining themselves, as those who aren't are already accommodated. I suspect that the 'human capital' liberated by basic income will mostly find its way to level 400 World of Warcraft Death Knights and 40 000 word critiques of Breaking Bad episodes. Should the legions of working folk try to actually use their new liberty for anything w…

The new check recipients who will benefit most include people who currently work, possibly at multiple jobs, but still barely earn enough to get by.

Re: Finland’s basic income plan could change everything

#226

Post by spullara »

jaegerpicker wrote: post #198
vinceguidry wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a lot of people, and they shouldn't be left out of the discussion. Retired people and the disabled accomplish a lot of things. It's just that these are personal accomplishments. Paying someone to not have to participate in the economic system, seems to me to force them to forever remain outside of it, unless they have a rare kind of motivation, that kind of motivation would mean they didn't need the basic inco…

I disagree with your second part. A good counter example is that if I had a basic income, I'd be much more likely to pursue a career in scientific research, particularly in the area of Marine Biology. I love software development but I also love biology. The big choice for me is that software pays very well and makes it much easier to support a family which is also important to me. Given an opportunity to have a basel…

Devil's advocate. Doesn't that mean that you would stop doing something that people value and start doing something people don't value as much? I'm for BI but this makes it sound like you would do something that people don't want and that you might be worse at doing than your current job.

Re: Finland’s basic income plan could change everything

#227

Post by shawn-furyan »

Grishnakh wrote: post #224
gnaritas wrote: post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a straw-man. There's plenty of evidence that even limited non general purpose AI will harm the job market enough cause massive social issues; I was very clear, general AI is not necessary for these things to be problems. Self driving cars alone will cause massive unemployment across many sectors over the next decade as it becomes common and unemployment need only get so high before social change is forced. As…

They've been working on AI for ages now with little to show for it. People have been saying the exact same thing about fusion, and it's always "20 years away", but we're no closer to having fusion power than we were 40 years ago.

The goal posts are continually moved with AI because AI never seems to look quite like human intelligence (though why should it?). AI and ML coupled with robots that are relatively simpler than Rosie from the Jetsons are cheaply out-competing human labor in many sectors today, and an avalanche of new sectors is on the cusp (within 2-5 years, not 20 years). Driverless cars currently outcompete human drivers, and a enormous number of people are currently employed as drivers. The remaining hurdles are regulatory. AI is intelligent enough today to outcompete a lot of humans in the work which is currently putting food on their tables. And I haven't seen the burgeoning industry that readily turns former taxi drivers into productive workers in other industries. The industries that can readily accept taxi drivers are generally shrinking as well (meaning, they've got all the workers they need, more than they need, in fact).

Maybe you're right, and it will all work itself out. Some huge growth industry to which humans are uniquely (at least at first) well suited may spring up in the next couple years. But the crisis is awfully close (taking into account driving occupations alone), and there's no market solution in sight, so it seems like prime time to start looking for non-market solutions.

Re: Finland’s basic income plan could change everything

#228

Post by paulddraper »

Ao7bei3s wrote: post #65
vinceguidry wrote: post #12

I'm cautiously enthusiastic about basic income. I want to believe that it really can change everything, until that nagging doubt of "but human nature just doesn't work that way!" inevitably kills the buzz. The idea behind basic income is to remove day-to-day struggle from people's lives. If only they didn't have to worry where their next rent check is coming from, then potentially a huge groundswell of human capital…

Unemployment benefits just aren't like basic income. At all. 1. They're barely enough to feed yourself and pay for rent, if even. Nothing more. 2. The authorities keep you busy filing paperwork and sending applications for awful jobs. Don't meet your quota, miss a deadline, don't make a meeting, or refuse any job (even if quite beneath your qualification), and your benefits are cut. 3. If you're unemployed, long-term…

If the only jobs you can get are ones "quite beneath your qualification", you might rethink the reality of those career qualifications.

Re: Finland’s basic income plan could change everything

#229

Post by jaegerpicker »

spullara wrote: post #226
jaegerpicker wrote: post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I disagree with your second part. A good counter example is that if I had a basic income, I'd be much more likely to pursue a career in scientific research, particularly in the area of Marine Biology. I love software development but I also love biology. The big choice for me is that software pays very well and makes it much easier to support a family which is also important to me. Given an opportunity to have a basel…

Devil's advocate. Doesn't that mean that you would stop doing something that people value and start doing something people don't value as much? I'm for BI but this makes it sound like you would do something that people don't want and that you might be worse at doing than your current job.

I don't think so, I'd say a different sort of people value the current work I do. People who are interested in making money over other pursuits. The people who really care about ecology/biology and advancing human knowledge there would put making money as second to the science. Therefore they tend to not have as much money. It's less about the volume of people that value something and more about the kind of people that value something IMO.

Re: Finland’s basic income plan could change everything

#230

Post by gnaritas »

Grishnakh wrote: post #224
gnaritas wrote: post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a straw-man. There's plenty of evidence that even limited non general purpose AI will harm the job market enough cause massive social issues; I was very clear, general AI is not necessary for these things to be problems. Self driving cars alone will cause massive unemployment across many sectors over the next decade as it becomes common and unemployment need only get so high before social change is forced. As…

They've been working on AI for ages now with little to show for it. People have been saying the exact same thing about fusion, and it's always "20 years away", but we're no closer to having fusion power than we were 40 years ago.

>They've been working on AI for ages now with little to show for it.

That's just not true, it's just that every time the AI crowd makes something really cool and it becomes used, we stop calling it AI because it doesn't think like we do.

> People have been saying the exact same thing about fusion, and it's always "20 years away", but we're no closer to having fusion power than we were 40 years ago.

That's also not true. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ITER

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