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Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

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Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#191
post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

TSLA is a different beast, I think should be excluded. The rest are fair.

I just test drove a TSLA car today. I "summoned" the car from its parking spot. I then drove around town (in insane mode). Turned on autopilot and the car drove down the highway by itself (changing lanes when directed). Went back and then car perpendicular parked itself. So, ya, it's basically a software company.

That's a robotics company.

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#192

Angie's List: from $28 in Jul 2013 to $9[0] Box: from $24 in Jan 2015 to $10[1] GoPro: from $87 in Oct 2014 to $11[2] Groupon: from $26 in Nov 2011 to $2.60[3] GrubHub: from $46 in Apr 2015 to $21[4] Twitter: from $70 in Jan 2014 to $18[5] Yelp: from $97 in Mar 2014 to $21[6] Zillow: from $121 in Feb 2015 to $22[7] Zynga: from $15 in Mar 2012 to $2[8] 0: http://www.google.com/finance?q=ANGI 1: http://www.google.com/f…

Facebook: $38.23 to $94.97 (May '12 - present) [0] Wayfair: $32.18 to $37.81 (Oct '14 - present)[1] TripAdvisor: $27.91 to $70.63 (Dec '11 - Present)[2] Hubspot: $29.05 to $50.04 (Oct '14 - Present) [3] Tesla: $10.40 to $204.99 (Jul '10 - Present ) [4] ZenDesk: $15.25 to $23.10 (May '14 - Present) [5] LinkedIn: $90.09 to $196.10 (May '11 - Present) [6] 0: https://www.google.com/finance?q=facebook&ei=OGyZVsiyEYqNmAG..…

What about ANET, PANW, SPLK, WDAY? Enterprise startups so often overlooked.

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#193
post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I highly doubt this will be happening to the likes of Uber or AirBNB anytime soon, for one Travis Kalanik is one of the brightest guys on the planet and relentless in his efforts, much like Jobs in his prime. AirBNB will face more challenges but the amount of monetary funds it collects in transactions and fee's it is collecting will keep it at the top for a long long time. Anytime a company puts money back into the h…

"Travis Kalanik is one of the brightest guys on the planet" That is a strong statement. Care to justify?

He resold cereal dammit, he's practically a miracle worker. /s

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#194

I'm not surprised at all. Etsy used to be user based and hand made. Now it's just another market place. They still act like they try to enforce "non-mass-produced" but there are countless examples of the opposite being true. Places where people have directly reported instances of this and the problem is still present. I think the problem is that they stopped caring about their user base and, therefore, became less ub…

An alternative hypothesis: maybe they reached the limits of the scalable, addressable, growth market for small-batch, handmade goods?

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#195
post #10
post #5

To be clear, it's lost XX% of it's market cap. The market cap is a knowingly-flawed assessment of earnings potential for a company. Its actual value is probably unchanged.

Market cap is just value of a single share * number of shares outstanding. Do you have a better way of valuing a publicly-traded company? When you say "its actual value is probably unchanged", what value are you talking about? If you think there is a disconnect between share price and value (however you're measuring that), then it is an excellent opportunity to arbitrage an inefficient market.

> Do you have a better way of valuing a publicly-traded company?

I do, but it involves time travel. In 1981, Shiller published "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Dividends?" ( https://www.aeaweb.org/aer/top20/71.3.421-436.pdf ) in which he compares index prices to their ten year dividend earnings, ex post. Volatility of prices is high, but the dividend streams are not.

What this suggests is that price tends to react to short term news far more strongly than dividends would suggest is reasonable. What it doesn't tell us is whether the shift in price is diverging from reality, or converging on it.

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#196
post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agree. Airbnb's valuation is very close to eBay's. So, that means that it's expected that in the near future AirBnB will generate at least $2-3 billion in net profits per year. Actually, it would have to be more than that, because investors expect even higher valuation on IPO. Peter Thiel stated he thinks AirBnB will be $100+ billion company, which would imply he expects at least $7 billion after tax profits in the n…

AirBNBs revenue is over 1.2B, 340M per quarter. http://skift.com/2015/11/23/airbnb-revenue-now-larger-than-c...

$340 was for Q3, which is when most people take vacations and doesn't reflect other quarters. The projection for 2015 was $800-900 million.

But, that is year 2015, which is 7th year since they incorporated and I was writing about first 6 years of existence.

For the record, eBay's revenue in 2003 (7th year of existence) was $2.2 billion.

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#197
post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Disagree entirely. Twitter? No good way to monetize. Groupon? Failed to monetize effectively after virality faded and without a moat competitors did the same thing. Yelp? A web version of the BBB protection scheme whose profit comes from the shake down protection racket against small businesses, not from users. Zynga had no moat and other companies quickly did the same thing with much leaner overhead, like King and a…

Just saying, Box's main target is enterprise market and they definitely charge a hefty amount from their customers. They have beat analyst expectations for both revenue growth and profit (well, less loss) for every quarter since IPO, it's just a tough market.

I still can't fathom how monetizing what are basically just shared network drives, a feature already built into windows, is a successful venture.

Hire an IT guy and have him setup network shares, done. But obviously there seems to be some need I'm overlooking, considering the revenue these companies are making.

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#198

I'm not surprised at all. Etsy used to be user based and hand made. Now it's just another market place. They still act like they try to enforce "non-mass-produced" but there are countless examples of the opposite being true. Places where people have directly reported instances of this and the problem is still present. I think the problem is that they stopped caring about their user base and, therefore, became less ub…

An alternative hypothesis: maybe they reached the limits of the scalable, addressable, growth market for small-batch, handmade goods?

They did, and then they failed to respond properly because their corporate leaders are a bunch of hippies.

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#199
post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's crazy. The employees owners just gutted the value of their own company.

Alternatively, they are informing the market of their perceived value of the company.

Or rationally reacting to having their net worth concentrated nearly entirely in a single security. Contrary to essentially all financial advice.

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#200
etsy is clear case of poor management, just taking a brief look at their financial statements it is clear they are doing something clearly wrong. Their revenue is growing but their expenses are growing at the same rate so they remain unprofitable. from 2014 to 2015 revenue grew from 29 million to 45 million per quarter while general expenses grew from 22 million to 31 million. Amazon is another company that does this but at least they have the sense to keep the company slightly in the black to slowly gain small amount of cash reserves, etsy is just burning through their capital for no reason, they earn plenty of revenue to be able to turn a profit
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