Live data from Hacker News

Bitcoin Is Dead, Long Live Bitcoin

avc.com

101–110 of 199 posts

Re: Bitcoin Is Dead, Long Live Bitcoin

#101

Back in 2009 when I was getting into bitcoin, it was widely described as a "stateless currency" and not just an alternative to Visa or credit cards. Having a background in economics, bitcoin looked to me like a truly revolutionary technology and if it was adopted en masse would change politics forever. The problem however is that a nation's currency is arguably the primary source of it's sovereignty. Whomever control…

I think many people overestimate the importance of currency because of the visibility it has. Because it represents the stored wealth that people have, people confuse it with wealth itself.

The actual game of business is played out in the provision of goods & services that people want. Currency is the score. You need a means of keeping score in order to play the game, and when one doesn't exist, it will be created. And it helps if more people agree on the means of keeping score; it makes it easier for them to play together. But it doesn't really matter whether that's dollars or euros or pounds or drachmas or cigarettes. People use the currency that the people they want to play with use; the dollar is popular because many people want to play with the U.S. They don't adopt a new currency unless there is no alternative way of keeping score.

The problem with Bitcoin is that most mainstream goods & services providers didn't really want to play with the people who used it. When they did, they went through intermediaries like Coinbase who immediately exchanged it for dollars. Bitcoin caught on because there was a vacuum in the currency space for people that wanted to trade illegal drugs or move money out of China. It fails because this vacuum doesn't extend to the majority of the population.

It's worth remembering this when evaluating other emerging technologies. Look for what people want, places where there's a current lack of available solutions, and ignore the ones that theoretically could change everything if only large groups of people did things that aren't really in their personal interest.

Re: Bitcoin Is Dead, Long Live Bitcoin

#102
post #38
post #9

The problem with bitcoin, as I see it, is that discussion of problems that may exist can lower the value of bitcoin- whether the problem is real or not. If you're heavily invested emotionally with bitcoins, you need to discuss these problems so that they can be solved. If you're heavily invested financially , you need to make sure no one talks about these problems, at least until you have a plan for how you're not go…

That's the same as ordinary currencies. If enough people believe (for example) that the Venezulan Bolivar is unsound, or the government of that country is unsound, then the price of the Bolivar will fall. Even if that government isn't necessarily doing something bad like recklessly printing currency.

The difference is that a government currency still has some value to dampen that fluctuation because it's backed by a sovereign state. The government of Venezuela can horribly mismanage it but people will still need to use the Bolivar to pay taxes, the government can require shops to accept Bolivars and ban foreign currency, etc.

That can cause huge problems but short of the government collapsing it does serve to limit the volatility of a currency. In contrast, Bitcoin has absolutely no value beyond the social consensus. It's very easy to imagine scenarios where the value of any stored Bitcoin you have craters overnight: major miners run out of VC cash & shut down, you're on the wrong side of a fork, a major competitor launches, etc. In every case, the floor price is zero and there's no recourse if you fail to convince someone else to accept it at the price you think is fair.

Re: Bitcoin Is Dead, Long Live Bitcoin

#103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, do you honestly believe that VCs have even a fraction of the power that Wall Street does?

I think it's a false distinction. Institutional capital, distinct from Angel money, is part of the same ecosystem. VC's are part of the larger global equity market, taking funds from LP's such as pension funds in the same way that Goldman and the rest do. The fact that they are smaller in total dollars doesn't mean they have structurally different goals. At the end of the day a VC has to show returns to the LP in the…

A fair point, thank you.

Re: Bitcoin Is Dead, Long Live Bitcoin

#104

1. I have no idea how to get Bitcoin. A quick search takes me to several exchanges that look like torrent sites for pirating shit. 2. Nor has anyone presented me a compelling reason to get bitcoin (other than the future). Off the top of my head, if a company offered me an account that would take care of my online transactions in a secure way using Bitcoin, I might be interested. Maybe I'd put a few hundred in it each…

The only real compelling reason anyone has these days to buy a bitcoin seems to be for use on darknet markets, mostly to buy drugs. The merits of those markets are wonderful to discuss, but as I don't really have a use for drugs in my life right now, I have no need for bitcoins.

Re: Bitcoin Is Dead, Long Live Bitcoin

#105
post #92

Back in 2009 when I was getting into bitcoin, it was widely described as a "stateless currency" and not just an alternative to Visa or credit cards. Having a background in economics, bitcoin looked to me like a truly revolutionary technology and if it was adopted en masse would change politics forever. The problem however is that a nation's currency is arguably the primary source of it's sovereignty. Whomever control…

> Back in 2009 when I was getting into bitcoin, it was widely described as a "stateless currency" and not just an alternative to Visa or credit cards. Having a background in economics, bitcoin looked to me like a truly revolutionary technology and if it was adopted en masse would change politics forever. No state or political entity will EVER support en masse a currency that it does not control and/or is NOT backed b…

Well this is the point. If private citizens adopted BTC over their nation's currency it would completely upend the political power structures - which arguably is the most democratic thing possible.

No nation state would ever encourage it, but in theory it would flatten the world to the greatest extent ever - moreso than any transportation technology (shipping, airfreight etc...) ever.

Re: Bitcoin Is Dead, Long Live Bitcoin

#106

Back in 2009 when I was getting into bitcoin, it was widely described as a "stateless currency" and not just an alternative to Visa or credit cards. Having a background in economics, bitcoin looked to me like a truly revolutionary technology and if it was adopted en masse would change politics forever. The problem however is that a nation's currency is arguably the primary source of it's sovereignty. Whomever control…

I think many people overestimate the importance of currency because of the visibility it has. Because it represents the stored wealth that people have, people confuse it with wealth itself. The actual game of business is played out in the provision of goods & services that people want. Currency is the score. You need a means of keeping score in order to play the game, and when one doesn't exist, it will be created. A…

Currency is not just the score, it allows for trades and a certain consensus to be achieved (absolute valuation of goods and services, i.e. total order of preference) that can't be achieved through simple peer to peer trading based on personal preference.

Not to mention the inconvenience/logistical inefficiency of having to have a good that interests the seller of your desire, or finding a trading chain. I guess you could create a virtual trading chain that automatically resolves those conflicts (if I recall correctly that's more or less the idea of Ripple), but if the chain fails in the middle the transaction is compromised, and you now depend on a high level of network activity for a viable chain to allow you to trade.

Re: Bitcoin Is Dead, Long Live Bitcoin

#107
post #52

Back in 2009 when I was getting into bitcoin, it was widely described as a "stateless currency" and not just an alternative to Visa or credit cards. Having a background in economics, bitcoin looked to me like a truly revolutionary technology and if it was adopted en masse would change politics forever. The problem however is that a nation's currency is arguably the primary source of it's sovereignty. Whomever control…

As someone with an economics background, I'm surprised you think the biggest problem is the statelessness of Bitcoin. The biggest economic problem to me has always been an unintelligent control of the money supply. You can criticize some of the actions that many central banks do to manipulate the economy, but I have a hard time buying the answer to bad management is no management.

Exactly. The Fed or CBRC may not be perfect with their policies, but at least they're beneficially aligned with the future and stability of their currency (rather than a group of rational self-interested actors).

Re: Bitcoin Is Dead, Long Live Bitcoin

#108
post #104

1. I have no idea how to get Bitcoin. A quick search takes me to several exchanges that look like torrent sites for pirating shit. 2. Nor has anyone presented me a compelling reason to get bitcoin (other than the future). Off the top of my head, if a company offered me an account that would take care of my online transactions in a secure way using Bitcoin, I might be interested. Maybe I'd put a few hundred in it each…

The only real compelling reason anyone has these days to buy a bitcoin seems to be for use on darknet markets, mostly to buy drugs. The merits of those markets are wonderful to discuss, but as I don't really have a use for drugs in my life right now, I have no need for bitcoins.

I don't know, have you tried to buy plane tickets with a credit card? It takes me a solid half hour every time, between the "verified by Visa" crap, the merchant not accepting the card and some failure on their system. With Bitcoin, you tap the link and press "confirm".

It's miles ahead of any other payment system I know, including cash (because you don't have to be in proximity of the recipient).

Re: Bitcoin Is Dead, Long Live Bitcoin

#109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The problem however is that a nation's currency is arguably the primary source of it's sovereignty. The reverse is also true--any significant currency creates sovereignty by elevating the power of those with the greatest influence over that currency. In the case of Bitcoin, the "core" developers, in addition to the highest-volume miners, have been elevated to the sovereign position. Rather than a distributed statel…

Well, right. One may frame this whole "failed versus not failed" as a power struggle between two camps: a. Those who own a large stake in the original BitCoin - such as the developers, miners, venture capitalists, the Winklevoss Twins, etc. and b. Those who don't own a large stake in BitCoin currently, but wish to own a large stake in the dominant cryptocurrency. Wall Street... When you attack BitCoin on any grounds,…

Nah. People need to learn that you simply can't build a decentralized, egalitarian system on capitalist foundations.

Re: Bitcoin Is Dead, Long Live Bitcoin

#110
post #104

1. I have no idea how to get Bitcoin. A quick search takes me to several exchanges that look like torrent sites for pirating shit. 2. Nor has anyone presented me a compelling reason to get bitcoin (other than the future). Off the top of my head, if a company offered me an account that would take care of my online transactions in a secure way using Bitcoin, I might be interested. Maybe I'd put a few hundred in it each…

The only real compelling reason anyone has these days to buy a bitcoin seems to be for use on darknet markets, mostly to buy drugs. The merits of those markets are wonderful to discuss, but as I don't really have a use for drugs in my life right now, I have no need for bitcoins.

That is why there was a Silk Road but they got busted by the FBI. Would sell drugs and ship them in a CD holder, claiming it was a CD-ROM for Bitcoins.

There are other sites that sell things for Bitcoins that are not drugs. But there aren't that many of them.

You have to get the banks to support Bitcoin so you can exchange from Bitcoin and back and that hasn't happened on a large scale yet.

When I went to buy Bitcoin I saw a lot of Russian based sites, and not sure I could trust my bank account info with them as they might be run by the Russian mafia for money laundering.

Post reply on HN