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Canada forgot to plan for its future by leaning on oil and the loonie

theglobeandmail.com

91–100 of 169 posts

Re: Canada forgot to plan for its future by leaning on oil and the loonie

#91

Canada didn't forget anything. We have a diverse economy with common sense measures like reducing our net debt to GDP, while keeping a fully funded retirement pension fund (CPP, unlike SS, actually invests in the public market). Even the way we do provincial transfer payments is sane. While one industry is booming (Oil, manufacturing, tech) other "have not" provinces get payments through the federal government. This…

Look at the allocation of value on the stock market. Overwhelmingly oil and gas despite that being a rather small part of the economy. Look at the allocation of most mutual funds that a Canadian owns as part of their retirement portfolio. Look at the nature of the previous gov'ts budgetary and economic planning (in as much as they did that kind of thing). Overwhelmingly in favour of the resource sector.

> Look at the nature of the previous gov'ts budgetary and economic planning (in as much as they did that kind of thing). Overwhelmingly in favour of the resource sector.

You seem quite married to this simplistic thesis that oil is Canada's downfall, but "just look" isn't an argument. I looked, and the non-oil economic output continued to grow through the oil boom, just not as fast as the oil and gas sector. Yes, oil was a temporary boost, but the country isn't any worse off than if it hadn't extracted that oil. By the way, the government does not enforce oil production quotas in Canada. The fact that the world oil price soared above $100USD causing massive production increases in Canada was not an economic policy of the Canadian government. That's the market economy functioning, not central planning as you imply. The government didn't peg the CAD to world oil prices, the international currency markets did. NOT producing oil in the highest price environment in the history of the world would have been an economic loss for Canada.

Furthermore, the last government, like the current one and every Canadian government in living memory, gave billions in handouts to every sector of the economy, especially manufacturing. The federal government spent billions balling out the US automakers in Canada. Yet manufacturing has been declining since the 1990s, long before the current oil boom. Have you seen a chart of labour productivity in Canada vs. the US and Mexico over the last 20 years? We're a high-cost low-productivity environment and not just because of a high dollar. Having actual social security programs and higher unionization rates places a big, structural role in failing to attract and retain manufacturing capacity within NAFTA.

It's puzzling that you think the oil production boom in Canada was caused by the Canadian government when production was booming in every petroleum producing country in the world because of high global demand. It's even more puzzling that you think the oil boom of the last 10 years and the supposed policies of the last federal government account for global macroeconomic trends that have existed for 20-30 years.

Re: Canada forgot to plan for its future by leaning on oil and the loonie

#92
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd argue Canada made concerted efforts to support natural resource industries at the cost of all other industries. Eg. expending massive political capital with the US to push for Keystone XL. We've hurt our image abroad by fighting climate change action, Canada even refused to consider asbestos a hazardous material because there's a single asbestos mine in the country. As soon as that mine closed we switched to cons…

"expending massive political capital" Luckily, political capital is a fiat currency and can be created or destroyed by the CBC in moments.

How many Americans (US + Mexico + South)/Europeans/Asians/Africans watch the CBC? I think the parent was referring to international political capital.

Re: Canada forgot to plan for its future by leaning on oil and the loonie

#93

Canada didn't forget anything. We have a diverse economy with common sense measures like reducing our net debt to GDP, while keeping a fully funded retirement pension fund (CPP, unlike SS, actually invests in the public market). Even the way we do provincial transfer payments is sane. While one industry is booming (Oil, manufacturing, tech) other "have not" provinces get payments through the federal government. This…

Even the way we do provincial transfer payments is sane. While one industry is booming (Oil, manufacturing, tech) other "have not" provinces get payments through the federal government. This brings a measure of stability to the system. Yes and no, the resource-heavy provinces have been working hard for natural-resource carve-outs and natural resource revenues get a 50% haircut going in anyway. Any rational economist…

"Canada went all-in on oil" implies Canada had a choice. When the global price of a commodity you have massive reserves of spikes, what else do you do besides sell as much of it as you can?

Re: Canada forgot to plan for its future by leaning on oil and the loonie

#94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's because all of our non-resource companies are either: 1. American / international subsidiaries. 2. Mid-sized CCPCs. 3. Owned by private equity firms. I agree that Canadians do not allocate their retirement savings correctly and that our stock market is not a reflection of our economy, but our government has common sense measures to support a variety of industries.

The gov't was giving preferential tax treatment to resource extraction and deliberately dismantling the regulatory environment around them. Basically extending what the Alberta provincial gov't has done for decades out to the rest of the country. A high dollar also favoured those industries against all others. Not sure if the feds could have done anything about the high dollar, but it certainly choked everywhere outs…

> A high dollar also favoured those industries against all others.

Er, oil is priced in USD and exported from Canada. A low dollar favours oil production just as much as any other export.

Re: Canada forgot to plan for its future by leaning on oil and the loonie

#95
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not to play second fiddle to Toronto and Vancouver, but here in Mtl we have a fairly lively startup scene and some bigger players like Ubisoft, Google, and Bombardier as well. I frequent our Montréal Python usergroup, and I'm routinely impressed by the calibre of the presentations and the work that people are showing off.[1] If you want talent, it's certainly available, and it's cheaper than SV. [1] https://www.youtu…

Montreal has a fairly decent cluster of game studios, does it not? If nothing else I'm hoping they're hard at work making the next Deus Ex game at Eidos Montreal :)

> Montreal has a fairly decent cluster of game studios, does it not?

Yeah. I work close to Ubisoft, and there's a cluster of startups around its offices. At lunch hour, all of the local eateries are full of hacker types.

Re: Canada forgot to plan for its future by leaning on oil and the loonie

#96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a recent University of Waterloo grad, this has been my experience as well. I tried interviewing in Toronto/Vancouver for a while but have since given up in the Canadian job market. Not a single company I interviewed with was willing to even come close to US salaries. Everyone I know from school who's any good at all has already left for SF/Seattle/NYC and I'll probably be joining them soon. I'm not sure how these…

It's worse in London. I seen a rant on Medium [1] about the lack of affordable talent in London and I could only think of some of the low ball offers I received which would leave me worse off than staying in the North West. I actually get paid more here in Toronto than I could hope to get in London. My only option for the US is H1B but I'm willing to stick around for a while and I'll consider my options when I'm Cana…

Thanks for that link, it was a good laugh. The dissonance with reality was strong there. A single look at indeed.co.uk will reveal nary a single 600£ daily rate even for senior developers. Best of luck getting a pay increase; hopefully you don't have to deal with the horror of the H1B process to get paid what should be the global rate for software developers.

Re: Canada forgot to plan for its future by leaning on oil and the loonie

#97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Look at the allocation of value on the stock market. Overwhelmingly oil and gas despite that being a rather small part of the economy. Look at the allocation of most mutual funds that a Canadian owns as part of their retirement portfolio. Look at the nature of the previous gov'ts budgetary and economic planning (in as much as they did that kind of thing). Overwhelmingly in favour of the resource sector.

> Look at the nature of the previous gov'ts budgetary and economic planning (in as much as they did that kind of thing). Overwhelmingly in favour of the resource sector. You seem quite married to this simplistic thesis that oil is Canada's downfall, but "just look" isn't an argument. I looked, and the non-oil economic output continued to grow through the oil boom, just not as fast as the oil and gas sector. Yes, oil…

No I don't think the gov't caused the oil boom, or high oil prices or high oil production -- you have created a straw man to rail against.

But from their words -- openly lambasting Ontario and Quebec and their provincial gov'ts -- as well as actions they showed a disregard for diversification. Instead of investing money in infrastructure which would increase manufacturing sector effectiveness, they cut gov't revenue significantly, rolled out a variety of boutique tax cuts, and where they did spend money significantly it was in their own ridings. The disparity in the amount of highway construction in Alberta vs. Ontario for example is pretty staggering. And the only two places to see subway construction in Ontario were in Tory ridings -- Vaughan and Eglinton-Lawrence.

Re: Canada forgot to plan for its future by leaning on oil and the loonie

#98
post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm from Quebec and I have to agree with you that it could easily be north america's Germany. There is a lot of very talented software developers in Montreal but a lot of them leave to get higher salaries or work for foreign companies that love the very low, government subsidized wages [1]. If the government invested all that money in small to middle sized local companies instead the province would be so much more pr…

If the government invested all that money in small to middle sized local companies instead the province would be so much more prosperous. How exactly is anyone helped by money taking a round trip through the government rather than the same thing happening through free markets? You've made the cycle slower, you've made the recipients dependent on government bureaucratic decisions (who are not well-incentivized to deci…

> Quebec's largest mistake was, of course, Bill 101.

No, no, Quebec's largest mistake was accepting confederation. If we'd just joined up with the Americans instead, and batter down all laws protecting our culture and laguage, we would have gotten assimilated anyway, but at least we'd have a stronger economy.

Also, we wouldn't have to deal with the RoC...

Re: Canada forgot to plan for its future by leaning on oil and the loonie

#99
post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Ontario being a "have-not" province That's because Ontario's government managed to drive out most industry with an energy policy that created high and unstable electricity prices. As a result Ontario became a receiver of federal equalization payments for the first time ever. That's what the jokes were about.

That's a good story that the Fraser institute made a lot of noise about, and made a great headline but in reality Ontario was still contributing more in tax revenues and EI contributions than it got in equalization payments: http://www.thestar.com/opinion/commentary/2013/03/30/money_s...

stop hurting Frasier's feefees, Tone Policing Guy below is getting an aneurysm...

Re: Canada forgot to plan for its future by leaning on oil and the loonie

#100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Upstate NY here, and we get the worst weather in the US from Canadian winds and lake effect snow. For half the year it's always windy, always cold, always snowy, and always so, so gray. But aside from that it's a great place to live. Land is cheap, you can get good local food anywhere, and we're safe from nearly every natural disaster you can think of. Just bring a jacket.

Seems like many Americans near the border have this perception as Canada being the 'source' of their cold weather. In reality the bulk of the nastiest storms here in Ontario come over the lakes from northern Michigan, which is, yes, north of us. Look on a map, most of the heavily populated areas of Canada are as far south as northern California. The parts that are north of the 49th are much less populated. Yes, perio…

Here in Ohio we so look forward to what we call Alberta Clippers. Quick little snow storms followed by colder air.

So, yup, we tend to refer to snow and cold as coming from Canada.

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