Canada forgot to plan for its future by leaning on oil and the loonie • Hacker News Board

Re: Canada forgot to plan for its future by leaning on oil and the loonie

#41

Post by thescriptkiddie » Tue, Jan 12, 2016, 3:43 PM UTC

cmrdporcupine wrote: post #6

We had a gov't for 10 years full of "Calgary-school" (Canada's right-wing ultra free market economic ideologues coming out of the University of Calgary econ/poli-sci program). They were overwhelmingly driven by an oil and gas agenda. From the gov't down to mutual fund investors, everyone was treating our economy like a one-trick pony, all oil and gas. If you listened to people talk, Alberta's oil sector was supportin…

>a story to the country about resource driven prosperity which was factually incorrect

In a way, all stories about resource driven prosperity are incorrect. Natural resources are exported and so is the wealth they bring. You never hear about the prosperity of mining towns because they never have any, and when the resources run out they don't have jobs either.

Re: Canada forgot to plan for its future by leaning on oil and the loonie

#42

Post by HorizonXP » Tue, Jan 12, 2016, 3:44 PM UTC

seivan wrote: post #31

HorizonXP wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All of those profitable companies were once unprofitable. They got their start from some sort of initial investment, whether it was investors, family, or just taking an existing profitable business and morphing it. Most startups in the tech sector are exactly as you describe. And that's the point. Eventually, one of those startups finds something that can turn a profit. They build something that people want and are a…

Yeah but usually those "traditional" business have something more concrete to invest in e.g transportation, inventory, manufacturing or buying shelf space. I imagine if "SnapChat" blows up, they won't need to hire the engineers GameApp0, FoodApp1, CarApp2 let go. It doesn't really need to scale like a "traditional" factory. I get what you're saying, and I am not arguing against your points. I am just trying to get cl…

I wouldn't say you're worried for no reason, but software is an outlier: it requires very little equipment to build. You could literally write software anywhere in the world as long as you have a computer, and as a byproduct, an Internet connection.

If you're sufficiently motivated, you'll always be able to find work, either as an employee, or as an independent consultant.

Re: Canada forgot to plan for its future by leaning on oil and the loonie

#43

Post by a-priori » Tue, Jan 12, 2016, 3:53 PM UTC

turnip1979 wrote: post #35

3pt14159 wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

$100k CAD is not the ceiling. Far from it. I've personally extended offers for $120k, and that was for a pre-series A startup. The larger guys pay even more. First company that comes to mind, Shopify, pays up to $150k: https://angel.co/shopify/jobs/88003-software-developer?utm_s... And it goes up from there, especially once you start looking at positions that include less sexy startups, less common technologies, or m…

My data is from before Shopify's success ... I think you are right that Shopify might be helping to raise salaries (to be fair, their post says 70K to 150K). I'm curious .. the 120K offer, how experienced was the individual (in terms of years, etc.). Just saying, average house price in Toronto is 1 million. It should not cost 10x a dev's income to buy a house in Richmond Hill. In the Bay area, total comp of 400K is n…

Just putting this out there that I personally make >$120k as a developer in Ottawa, and I doubt I'm all that rare seeing as there's people at my company with a more senior job title than I have.

I don't think Shopify being in town has anything to do with that, just that the ceiling is higher than you may think.

Re: Canada forgot to plan for its future by leaning on oil and the loonie

#44

Post by eloff » Tue, Jan 12, 2016, 3:56 PM UTC

stinkytaco wrote: post #21

HorizonXP wrote: post #10

I've been saying this to my circle of friends and family for years. The stark contrast between Toronto and Silicon Valley is mind-numbing. And the short-sightedness of our politicians and society is infuriating. I cannot understand why people think it's ok to rely on banks, resource companies, and manufacturing to hold up our economy. We need to invest in growth sectors. It may not create a ton of jobs immediately, b…

>We need to invest in growth sectors. It may not create a ton of jobs immediately, but the potential payoff could save us. If you're not growing, you're dying. I'm curious what these growth sectors are? Are you referring to software companies? Because though I agree that's a growth sector, it's hard for me to envision how many jobs that creates in the long run. Wouldn't it create the same problems as manufacturing, i…

I think this is short-sighted. Either way, the technology innovation will happen, and the jobs will be lost. The question is, does the innovation happen in your country, where some of the money sticks to your "fingers" through taxes and knock-on effects in the local economy? Or does it all go to SV.

Re: Canada forgot to plan for its future by leaning on oil and the loonie

#45

Post by alanctgardner3 » Tue, Jan 12, 2016, 4:03 PM UTC

HorizonXP wrote: post #20

mhurron wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'm seriously considering going back to SV. You do know that tech centers in the US are outliers and general policy in the US is basically the same as Canada, and other countries that have a large mass of natural resources, Australia for example. Mass exploitation of every resource in reach will make us rich. Or, to put it another way 'Drill baby drill.' Silicon Valley and those that think it's different live in a…

100% agreed. But that insulated bubble is tremendously helpful for growing from a little shitstorm of a startup into something potentially world-changing. Your odds are vanishingly low when it comes to succeeding in a startup. As a founder, you should do everything you can to stack the odds in your favour. Edit: I can't respond to your reply, so I'll do it here. It's not just about funding. It's about finding like-mi…

I love that people who don't work in tech can still afford to live in Toronto. I don't think we're doing as well as we could to combat income inequality, but I'm glad we aren't throwing billions of dollars at overinflated startups. Hell, the biggest recent Canadian startup success story is Shopify, which actually sells real products and has revenue. Not just "slap some ads on it and we'll turn a profit".

Re: Canada forgot to plan for its future by leaning on oil and the loonie

#46

Post by Frostbeard » Tue, Jan 12, 2016, 4:05 PM UTC

S_A_P wrote: post #5

I was recently in Calgary. I found the people there friendly, polite and nice just like all the Canadian stereotypes suggest. I would love to live up in Canada, but HOLY HELL is it COLD! I couldnt deal with that. I was just in Calgary, I cant imagine Edmonton, Red Deer or the like. Is it just as cold on the east coast? I would imagine it has to be. Signed, Someone from Houston, Tx

As far as Canada goes, the winters in Calgary are pretty nice. I've lived in the Yukon, Nova Scotia and I grew up in the lower mainland of BC, but I'm in Calgary now and have been for a couple of years. Definitely prefer it here.

There's little snow, and we get tons of sunshine. When it does get cold, it's dry, so it doesn't feel as bad as a warmer temp on the coasts. You get reprieves in the form of chinooks too, where the temperature will jump up 20 degrees for a week or two. It's above freezing here today, but it was at -20C on Friday.

There is a tech scene here as well, and it's starting to get a bit more traction now that oil and gas aren't eating up all the brain power. Getty Images has offices here, and there are start-ups in and out of the energy industry. It'll be interesting to see what the city looks like in 10 years. Lots of folks are calling for it to be the next Detroit, but it doesn't really seem to be going that way.

Re: Canada forgot to plan for its future by leaning on oil and the loonie

#47

Post by green7ea » Tue, Jan 12, 2016, 4:06 PM UTC

cmrdporcupine wrote: post #6

We had a gov't for 10 years full of "Calgary-school" (Canada's right-wing ultra free market economic ideologues coming out of the University of Calgary econ/poli-sci program). They were overwhelmingly driven by an oil and gas agenda. From the gov't down to mutual fund investors, everyone was treating our economy like a one-trick pony, all oil and gas. If you listened to people talk, Alberta's oil sector was supportin…

I'm from Quebec and I have to agree with you that it could easily be north america's Germany. There is a lot of very talented software developers in Montreal but a lot of them leave to get higher salaries or work for foreign companies that love the very low, government subsidized wages [1].

If the government invested all that money in small to middle sized local companies instead the province would be so much more prosperous. Right now, profits are our biggest export. Not only that but the government insists on propping up big, mismanaged companies like CAE and bombardier time and time again [2] instead of investing in startups.

[1] http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/how-far-wi... [2] http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/mark-milke/bombardier-corporate...

Re: Canada forgot to plan for its future by leaning on oil and the loonie

#48

Post by hluska » Tue, Jan 12, 2016, 4:07 PM UTC

eloff wrote: post #44

stinkytaco wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>We need to invest in growth sectors. It may not create a ton of jobs immediately, but the potential payoff could save us. If you're not growing, you're dying. I'm curious what these growth sectors are? Are you referring to software companies? Because though I agree that's a growth sector, it's hard for me to envision how many jobs that creates in the long run. Wouldn't it create the same problems as manufacturing, i…

I think this is short-sighted. Either way, the technology innovation will happen, and the jobs will be lost. The question is, does the innovation happen in your country, where some of the money sticks to your "fingers" through taxes and knock-on effects in the local economy? Or does it all go to SV.

Canada already has a strong software sector and programs to support all sorts of research and development (ie - SR&ED). I can't imagine where Canada fails to nurture a software industry...

Re: Canada forgot to plan for its future by leaning on oil and the loonie

#49

Post by green7ea » Tue, Jan 12, 2016, 4:08 PM UTC

jordigh wrote: post #24

HorizonXP wrote: post #10

I've been saying this to my circle of friends and family for years. The stark contrast between Toronto and Silicon Valley is mind-numbing. And the short-sightedness of our politicians and society is infuriating. I cannot understand why people think it's ok to rely on banks, resource companies, and manufacturing to hold up our economy. We need to invest in growth sectors. It may not create a ton of jobs immediately, b…

Not to play second fiddle to Toronto and Vancouver, but here in Mtl we have a fairly lively startup scene and some bigger players like Ubisoft, Google, and Bombardier as well. I frequent our Montréal Python usergroup, and I'm routinely impressed by the calibre of the presentations and the work that people are showing off.[1] If you want talent, it's certainly available, and it's cheaper than SV. [1] https://www.youtu…

The problem is that the gov. subsidizes big, foreign companies that export most of their profits. If only this talent was invested in local companies that reinvested the profits locally.

Re: Canada forgot to plan for its future by leaning on oil and the loonie

#50

Post by JamisonM » Tue, Jan 12, 2016, 4:13 PM UTC

3pt14159 wrote: post #16

Canada didn't forget anything. We have a diverse economy with common sense measures like reducing our net debt to GDP, while keeping a fully funded retirement pension fund (CPP, unlike SS, actually invests in the public market). Even the way we do provincial transfer payments is sane. While one industry is booming (Oil, manufacturing, tech) other "have not" provinces get payments through the federal government. This…

   Even the way we do provincial transfer payments is sane. While one 
   industry is booming (Oil, manufacturing, tech) other "have not" 
   provinces get payments through the federal government. This brings
   a measure of stability to the system.

Yes and no, the resource-heavy provinces have been working hard for natural-resource carve-outs and natural resource revenues get a 50% haircut going in anyway.

Any rational economist can say that Canada went all-in on oil because that is exactly what it did. A prolonged stretch of an inflated loonie has resulted in a long-term reduction in manufacturing capacity which means that the country is not poised to take proper advantage of the decline in the dollar that has now occurred. Instead there will be a ramping-up period where productivity is lost.