Canada forgot to plan for its future by leaning on oil and the loonie • Hacker News Board

Re: Canada forgot to plan for its future by leaning on oil and the loonie

#31

Post by seivan » Tue, Jan 12, 2016, 3:20 PM UTC

HorizonXP wrote: post #26

seivan wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I thought banks, resource companies and actual manufacturing were usually profitable. While most tech lived on VC money, at least when you look at the Bay Area. What am I missing here? Every time I read about this stuff I always get the impression that tech is this abstract thing that barely makes profit and lives on investments while "traditional" businesses lives on selling actual things that creates profit. Which…

All of those profitable companies were once unprofitable. They got their start from some sort of initial investment, whether it was investors, family, or just taking an existing profitable business and morphing it. Most startups in the tech sector are exactly as you describe. And that's the point. Eventually, one of those startups finds something that can turn a profit. They build something that people want and are a…

Yeah but usually those "traditional" business have something more concrete to invest in e.g transportation, inventory, manufacturing or buying shelf space.

I imagine if "SnapChat" blows up, they won't need to hire the engineers GameApp0, FoodApp1, CarApp2 let go. It doesn't really need to scale like a "traditional" factory.

I get what you're saying, and I am not arguing against your points. I am just trying to get clarification if I'm worried for no reason. The salaries are high because so many startups live on credit. Eventually they die and the supply is higher than the demand.

Re: Canada forgot to plan for its future by leaning on oil and the loonie

#32

Post by rgoldade » Tue, Jan 12, 2016, 3:21 PM UTC

S_A_P wrote: post #5

I was recently in Calgary. I found the people there friendly, polite and nice just like all the Canadian stereotypes suggest. I would love to live up in Canada, but HOLY HELL is it COLD! I couldnt deal with that. I was just in Calgary, I cant imagine Edmonton, Red Deer or the like. Is it just as cold on the east coast? I would imagine it has to be. Signed, Someone from Houston, Tx

The West Coast (Vancouver, Victoria, etc.) rarely falls below zero degrees Celsius. Southern Ontario gets cold but it doesn't generally get Alberta-level cold. To be honest, I would rather live in Toronto than Houston.

Re: Canada forgot to plan for its future by leaning on oil and the loonie

#33

Post by 3pt14159 » Tue, Jan 12, 2016, 3:22 PM UTC

cmrdporcupine wrote: post #19

3pt14159 wrote: post #16

Canada didn't forget anything. We have a diverse economy with common sense measures like reducing our net debt to GDP, while keeping a fully funded retirement pension fund (CPP, unlike SS, actually invests in the public market). Even the way we do provincial transfer payments is sane. While one industry is booming (Oil, manufacturing, tech) other "have not" provinces get payments through the federal government. This…

Look at the allocation of value on the stock market. Overwhelmingly oil and gas despite that being a rather small part of the economy. Look at the allocation of most mutual funds that a Canadian owns as part of their retirement portfolio. Look at the nature of the previous gov'ts budgetary and economic planning (in as much as they did that kind of thing). Overwhelmingly in favour of the resource sector.

That's because all of our non-resource companies are either:

1. American / international subsidiaries. 2. Mid-sized CCPCs. 3. Owned by private equity firms.

I agree that Canadians do not allocate their retirement savings correctly and that our stock market is not a reflection of our economy, but our government has common sense measures to support a variety of industries.

Re: Canada forgot to plan for its future by leaning on oil and the loonie

#34

Post by wmil » Tue, Jan 12, 2016, 3:25 PM UTC

cmrdporcupine wrote: post #6

We had a gov't for 10 years full of "Calgary-school" (Canada's right-wing ultra free market economic ideologues coming out of the University of Calgary econ/poli-sci program). They were overwhelmingly driven by an oil and gas agenda. From the gov't down to mutual fund investors, everyone was treating our economy like a one-trick pony, all oil and gas. If you listened to people talk, Alberta's oil sector was supportin…

> Ontario being a "have-not" province

That's because Ontario's government managed to drive out most industry with an energy policy that created high and unstable electricity prices.

As a result Ontario became a receiver of federal equalization payments for the first time ever.

That's what the jokes were about.

Re: Canada forgot to plan for its future by leaning on oil and the loonie

#35

Post by turnip1979 » Tue, Jan 12, 2016, 3:32 PM UTC

3pt14159 wrote: post #12

turnip1979 wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed on the brain drain. Toronto is a major (and expensive) world city. From talking with friends, 100K (Canadian, that's 70K US) is the ceiling for intermediate to senior developers. Junior devs make a lot less ... 50-60K (that's 35 to 42K US)! That said, free healthcare counts for a lot. Also, as a dev in a Canadian tech company, you are probably not going to see as much stress and volatility as your average Sili…

$100k CAD is not the ceiling. Far from it. I've personally extended offers for $120k, and that was for a pre-series A startup. The larger guys pay even more. First company that comes to mind, Shopify, pays up to $150k: https://angel.co/shopify/jobs/88003-software-developer?utm_s... And it goes up from there, especially once you start looking at positions that include less sexy startups, less common technologies, or m…

My data is from before Shopify's success ... I think you are right that Shopify might be helping to raise salaries (to be fair, their post says 70K to 150K). I'm curious .. the 120K offer, how experienced was the individual (in terms of years, etc.).

Just saying, average house price in Toronto is 1 million. It should not cost 10x a dev's income to buy a house in Richmond Hill. In the Bay area, total comp of 400K is not unreasonable ... that makes the 2.5 million dollar homes in MV seem reasonable ... an uncomfortable 6.25x of a dev's income.

Re: Canada forgot to plan for its future by leaning on oil and the loonie

#36

Post by fche » Tue, Jan 12, 2016, 3:35 PM UTC

patrick_99 wrote: post #28

3pt14159 wrote: post #16

Canada didn't forget anything. We have a diverse economy with common sense measures like reducing our net debt to GDP, while keeping a fully funded retirement pension fund (CPP, unlike SS, actually invests in the public market). Even the way we do provincial transfer payments is sane. While one industry is booming (Oil, manufacturing, tech) other "have not" provinces get payments through the federal government. This…

I'd argue Canada made concerted efforts to support natural resource industries at the cost of all other industries. Eg. expending massive political capital with the US to push for Keystone XL. We've hurt our image abroad by fighting climate change action, Canada even refused to consider asbestos a hazardous material because there's a single asbestos mine in the country. As soon as that mine closed we switched to cons…

"expending massive political capital"

Luckily, political capital is a fiat currency and can be created or destroyed by the CBC in moments.

Re: Canada forgot to plan for its future by leaning on oil and the loonie

#37

Post by fche » Tue, Jan 12, 2016, 3:36 PM UTC

HorizonXP wrote: post #10

I've been saying this to my circle of friends and family for years. The stark contrast between Toronto and Silicon Valley is mind-numbing. And the short-sightedness of our politicians and society is infuriating. I cannot understand why people think it's ok to rely on banks, resource companies, and manufacturing to hold up our economy. We need to invest in growth sectors. It may not create a ton of jobs immediately, b…

"We need to invest in growth sectors."

Who exactly is this "we"? You personally can invest in whatever sectors you like, and so can your neighbours. How is that not enough?

Re: Canada forgot to plan for its future by leaning on oil and the loonie

#38

Post by chm » Tue, Jan 12, 2016, 3:38 PM UTC

plehoux wrote: post #3

"If the Canadian government is serious about long-term growth, it must focus on how it can build cities and policies that attract people and businesses. But we have not been headed in the right direction on this front." YES! I live in Quebec city and there is a rampant idea in the population that the status quo is the only way forward. More petroleum exploration, larger highways, big government mining investments/sub…

Je ne crois pas que ce soit un problème isolé au Québec. Il me semble qu'après un certain âge, la plupart des gens réagissent moins bien au changement. Cela dit, je partage ton sentiment. Peut-être cette mentalité nous quittera-t-elle avec les Baby Boomers.

Pour être plus positif: connais-tu le secteur aérospatial de Montréal? C'est une partie importante de l'économie qui est souvent méconnue (manifeste dans la réaction vis-à-vis l'aide d'un milliard de $ offerte à Bombardier). http://www.aeromontreal.ca/sector-aerospace/

Re: Canada forgot to plan for its future by leaning on oil and the loonie

#39

Post by cmrdporcupine » Tue, Jan 12, 2016, 3:39 PM UTC

wmil wrote: post #34

cmrdporcupine wrote: post #6

We had a gov't for 10 years full of "Calgary-school" (Canada's right-wing ultra free market economic ideologues coming out of the University of Calgary econ/poli-sci program). They were overwhelmingly driven by an oil and gas agenda. From the gov't down to mutual fund investors, everyone was treating our economy like a one-trick pony, all oil and gas. If you listened to people talk, Alberta's oil sector was supportin…

> Ontario being a "have-not" province That's because Ontario's government managed to drive out most industry with an energy policy that created high and unstable electricity prices. As a result Ontario became a receiver of federal equalization payments for the first time ever. That's what the jokes were about.

That's a good story that the Fraser institute made a lot of noise about, and made a great headline but in reality Ontario was still contributing more in tax revenues and EI contributions than it got in equalization payments:

http://www.thestar.com/opinion/commentary/2013/03/30/money_s...

Re: Canada forgot to plan for its future by leaning on oil and the loonie

#40

Post by HorizonXP » Tue, Jan 12, 2016, 3:42 PM UTC

stinkytaco wrote: post #21

HorizonXP wrote: post #10

I've been saying this to my circle of friends and family for years. The stark contrast between Toronto and Silicon Valley is mind-numbing. And the short-sightedness of our politicians and society is infuriating. I cannot understand why people think it's ok to rely on banks, resource companies, and manufacturing to hold up our economy. We need to invest in growth sectors. It may not create a ton of jobs immediately, b…

>We need to invest in growth sectors. It may not create a ton of jobs immediately, but the potential payoff could save us. If you're not growing, you're dying. I'm curious what these growth sectors are? Are you referring to software companies? Because though I agree that's a growth sector, it's hard for me to envision how many jobs that creates in the long run. Wouldn't it create the same problems as manufacturing, i…

Personally, as invested as I am in the software space, I think Canada should not invest in software technology, at least not exclusively. It's cheap enough that we could still encourage it.

I was doing my Masters in Medical Imaging at the University of Toronto (did not complete). The number of talented students and professors that I interacted with on a regular basis was astounding. And they were working on really amazing things.

Here's a group of potentially 100s of well-educated students that came out of the Canadian education system, so our tax dollars went towards a lot of their training. And once they're done their PhD, they're stuck trying to compete for very limited faculty positions, or finding a post-doc program somewhere, usually abroad.

The brain drain in biotechnology is the one we should be worrying about. We have fantastic resources available here in terms of teaching hospitals and facilities, but no one's taking advantage of it. And the space of biotechnology is so broad and unexplored, that we could be investing in a number of avenues to try to achieve something in the area.

To quote the cliched Wayne Gretzky: Skate to where the puck is going, not where it is.