Why Americans Work So Much Despite Keynes's Prediction • Hacker News Board

Re: Why Americans Work So Much Despite Keynes's Prediction

#31

Post by mhuffman » Mon, Jan 11, 2016, 9:36 AM UTC

marchenko wrote: post #27

patio11 wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One answer is that the market forces tend to funnel all increases in income to landowners as rent. This is partially a result of Americans choosing to consume more housing than citizens of peer nations or, indeed, Americans historically. The size of the average owned American home doubled since 1950. You can save a substantial amount of money if you're willing to live like a 2015 Japanese salaryman or a 1950 American…

The house/ school district connection is not a small matter: it transforms housing into a positional good, and (under present conditions) a zero-sum game. In many places, it is not possible to exercise a preference for a cheaper, more modest home without also accepting a tradeoff in school quality.

> The house/ school district connection is not a small matter

If you are a parent, it is a BIG deal. Over the past 10 or so years my location movements have had available education in the top three criteria (along with price and crime rate).

Re: Why Americans Work So Much Despite Keynes's Prediction

#32

Post by tmd » Mon, Jan 11, 2016, 9:39 AM UTC

Number of hours worked per week is not everything. I suspect that Americans do work less over the whole lifetime -- the retirement age has decreased (at least for men, see [1]) while life expectancy is increasing. The problem is that it's impossible to estimate total hours worked over lifetime for people presently in their 20s-30s and current pensioners give you a delayed statistic.

Personally I think that economy based on a 15-hour work week would be sub-optimal. Total salaries being equal, I'd rather employ a single person working 40 hours than three working 15 where you need to deal with lots of communication and administrative overhead.

Maybe the solution would be taking multiple "gap years" during your career or "mini retirements" but many employers don't like holes in your CVs.

[1] https://www.soa.org/News-and-Publications/Newsletters/Pensio...

Re: Why Americans Work So Much Despite Keynes's Prediction

#33

Post by mhuffman » Mon, Jan 11, 2016, 9:41 AM UTC

patio11 wrote: post #21

ScottBurson wrote: post #8

One answer is that the market forces tend to funnel all increases in income to landowners as rent. I was not familiar with this theory until a few days ago, when someone here on HN linked to an online version (edited and abridged) of Henry George's Progress and Poverty [0]. I've been reading it since; its clarity is stunning: I feel as if a great veil has been lifted from my eyes. Whether I'll still feel that way in…

One answer is that the market forces tend to funnel all increases in income to landowners as rent. This is partially a result of Americans choosing to consume more housing than citizens of peer nations or, indeed, Americans historically. The size of the average owned American home doubled since 1950. You can save a substantial amount of money if you're willing to live like a 2015 Japanese salaryman or a 1950 American…

I think in a lot cases you might have this backwards.

Many new schools, especially in the South, are built in the county or in a more rural part of the town, because property is cheap or donated there.

If the school is a "good" (you can decide on what that means for you) school, then all of a sudden, the property near that school become much more valuable to build home on for parents.

If the value of the property goes up, taxes go up in those new divisions.

Now, you have a situation where THE SCHOOL has driven off poor families and increased its own budget ... just because it was "good" to start off with!

So it isn't always that people are building the "good" schools on already expensive property to cater to the wealthy.

Re: Why Americans Work So Much Despite Keynes's Prediction

#34

Post by miseg » Mon, Jan 11, 2016, 9:41 AM UTC

tmd wrote: post #32

Number of hours worked per week is not everything. I suspect that Americans do work less over the whole lifetime -- the retirement age has decreased (at least for men, see [1]) while life expectancy is increasing. The problem is that it's impossible to estimate total hours worked over lifetime for people presently in their 20s-30s and current pensioners give you a delayed statistic. Personally I think that economy ba…

That's the trouble. From an employee's perspective, I'd like a job with less than 40 hours per week (but also be paid lesson for it). But full working hours are favourable to employers.

Re: Why Americans Work So Much Despite Keynes's Prediction

#35

Post by logicallee » Mon, Jan 11, 2016, 9:49 AM UTC

all of these comments are totally wrong. why do the richest Americans work the most, why did Gates work insane hours like 100 a week?

obviously it's not because they can't afford to stop working. it's because America has a culture that work is - awesome.

what other country could give developers unlimited vacation days? (for example.)

Re: Why Americans Work So Much Despite Keynes's Prediction

#36

Post by tmd » Mon, Jan 11, 2016, 9:51 AM UTC

miseg wrote: post #34

tmd wrote: post #32

Number of hours worked per week is not everything. I suspect that Americans do work less over the whole lifetime -- the retirement age has decreased (at least for men, see [1]) while life expectancy is increasing. The problem is that it's impossible to estimate total hours worked over lifetime for people presently in their 20s-30s and current pensioners give you a delayed statistic. Personally I think that economy ba…

That's the trouble. From an employee's perspective, I'd like a job with less than 40 hours per week (but also be paid lesson for it). But full working hours are favourable to employers.

You're right but I wouldn't like that even as an employee (which I am). Imagine your that your team triples in size and everyone is in some kind of part-time arrangement that makes it difficult to synchronize any kind of real-time communication. Horror.

Re: Why Americans Work So Much Despite Keynes's Prediction

#37

Post by sde » Mon, Jan 11, 2016, 9:54 AM UTC

ScottBurson wrote: post #8

One answer is that the market forces tend to funnel all increases in income to landowners as rent. I was not familiar with this theory until a few days ago, when someone here on HN linked to an online version (edited and abridged) of Henry George's Progress and Poverty [0]. I've been reading it since; its clarity is stunning: I feel as if a great veil has been lifted from my eyes. Whether I'll still feel that way in…

Productivity growth is measured in terms of the lowest quality mass produced consumer goods that are still around across the decades, because it's measured along with estimating inflation, which is measured that way. So inflation has been higher than the conventional government provided numbers, and productivity growth lower. You can buy more cheap boxed stuff for an hour's wages, and you can get much more advanced technology and other advances in the quality of products and services. But people can't live on enhanced quality, phones with more features, or increased quantities of the lowest quality of food, when they're trying to live an American lifestyle that takes a car, housing, medical care, education, and so on.

Also consider that the median wage in the U.S. includes the effect of a lot of immigration. Average immigrants make more than they would in their countries of origin, but less than average Americans, while average American born workers have done better than the median statistic. College educated American born workers have done better yet, but a lot of that increase has been paid in the form of mortgages and rent to retirees and the rich, because of urban housing market inflation, as ScottBurson pointed out.

Re: Why Americans Work So Much Despite Keynes's Prediction

#38

Post by lmm » Mon, Jan 11, 2016, 9:57 AM UTC

jacobolus wrote: post #28

patio11 wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One answer is that the market forces tend to funnel all increases in income to landowners as rent. This is partially a result of Americans choosing to consume more housing than citizens of peer nations or, indeed, Americans historically. The size of the average owned American home doubled since 1950. You can save a substantial amount of money if you're willing to live like a 2015 Japanese salaryman or a 1950 American…

Zoning has a lot to do with home sizes. In general American cities are zoned to not allow smaller units, even for those who might prefer the cheaper rent if given a choice. Japan has much simpler and more flexible zoning laws. ...But Japan doesn’t have the history of racially motivated urban design in general, so the story is a bit complicated. That, and America has been heavily subsidizing an automobile-based lifest…

Japan has extreme ghettoization of immigrants; most landlords will simply refuse to rent to foreigners.

Re: Why Americans Work So Much Despite Keynes's Prediction

#39

Post by gozur88 » Mon, Jan 11, 2016, 10:00 AM UTC

>What Keynes foretold was a very optimistic version of what economists call technological unemployment—the idea that less labor will be necessary because machines can do so much. In Keynes’s vision, the resulting unemployment would be distributed more or less evenly across society in the form of increased leisure.

I would be shocked if that actually happened. From what I can tell most people would rather make more money than have more leisure, even if it's not a conscious decision. Since employers would rather hire one guy for 40 hour weeks instead of two guys for 20, if marketable people don't demand shorter hours (and less money) it's never going to happen.

Also, it's an overly simple view of technological innovation. Technology tends to eliminate low skill and unskilled jobs, creating fewer numbers of higher skilled positions. It's pretty naive to think if you automate a steel mill you're going to be able to transition people from that mill into medicine or software development.

Re: Why Americans Work So Much Despite Keynes's Prediction

#40

Post by hellofunk » Mon, Jan 11, 2016, 10:06 AM UTC

Meanwhile, the Netherlands has a new law in effect on January 1 that requires employers to allow for shorter working days unless there is a strong reason to prevent them. And since the Netherlands is one of several European companies on the list of world's "most prosperous" [0], a list which does not include the U.S. in the top 10, perhaps this is validation of Keynes afterall.

[0] http://www.prosperity.com/#!/