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Here’s $100. Can you win $800M at Powerball?
131–140 of 162 posts
Re: Here’s $100. Can you win $800M at Powerball?
#132A lottery ticket doesn't buy a chance, it buys a pleasant daydream. It buys a mental escape hatch. It buys the 'what would I do' game for another week. A movie costs $12 in a theater for 2 hrs of enjoyment. A lottery ticket costs $1 for a week of intermittent enjoyment. For certain segments of the population, a lottery ticket is a downright bargain. Math problems are easy. Real world problems are difficult. As an asi…
What do you think of http://lesswrong.com/lw/hl/lotteries_a_waste_of_hope/ and http://lesswrong.com/lw/hm/new_improved_lottery/?
Re: Here’s $100. Can you win $800M at Powerball?
#133Lottery is a progressive tax on stupidity.
http://smbc-comics.com/index.php?db=comics&id=2320#comic
This is actually not strictly applicable: what SMBC is talking about is a game that is some portion gamble but for which there is a house edge or strategy that you can exploit for gain. A lotto drawing is purely random (read: no skill) so someone with sufficient understanding of the math is no better off than someone who writes in random numbers. The same is true for slot machines.
Re: Here’s $100. Can you win $800M at Powerball?
#134Lottery is a progressive tax on stupidity.
That's a pretty reductive way of saying it.
I agree though if you've worked in the casino industry as long as I have there's precious few other ways to reason about what's going on in the minds of people who don't understand gambler's fallacy.
Re: Here’s $100. Can you win $800M at Powerball?
#135I'm genuinely surprised by the popular opinion that people play lotto only to win a nearly impossible jackpot. I rarely play, but when I do it's during the big frenzies like this just for kicks but with decent chances making my money back with a bit extra. I spent $3 (powerball single + multiplier). I won $4 last night by getting just the multiplier right (1:39 odds).
The Mega Millions games has 1:14.71 odds of winning. I'll play both Powerball and MM once or twice a year and my loose accounting on my winnings lands me around +$4. Basically nothing over the years but I have enjoyed the frenzy.
I don't think I fall into "stupid tax" territory and I do understand the probability of a jackpot win. I just don't care about it and enjoy the little rush of the chance.
Re: Here’s $100. Can you win $800M at Powerball?
#136Free YC 2016 application: Build website to crowdsource $292,201,338. Buy all the lotto tickets. Pay back investors 150% of their investment. Make ~ $69.5M. (assuming lotto tickets are a $1) (someone else can figure out the break even point after taxes)
Alternatively: a double or nothing scheme. Crowdsource ~$146 million and only buy half the lotto tickets. For each of the ~11 million combinations of regular numbers, buy 13 tickets covering half the possible powerball numbers. Assume you win the $800 million jackpot and lose 50% to taxes, you have $400 million left over. You spend ~$292 million to double your investors money and have ~$107 million left over. Assume…
Assume you win the $800 million jackpot and lose 50% to taxes, you have $400 million left over.
Gambling losses are tax deductible as expenses against gambling winnings.
Going with your scenario, if you spend ~$146 million and win ~$800 million, you'll be taxed on the ~$654 million profit. Off the top of my head you're looking at ~$400 million in after tax winnings.
So the investors get their ~$146 million back and then take a share of the remaining ~$400 million.
Re: Here’s $100. Can you win $800M at Powerball?
#137A lottery ticket doesn't buy a chance, it buys a pleasant daydream. It buys a mental escape hatch. It buys the 'what would I do' game for another week. A movie costs $12 in a theater for 2 hrs of enjoyment. A lottery ticket costs $1 for a week of intermittent enjoyment. For certain segments of the population, a lottery ticket is a downright bargain. Math problems are easy. Real world problems are difficult. As an asi…
What do you think of http://lesswrong.com/lw/hl/lotteries_a_waste_of_hope/ and http://lesswrong.com/lw/hm/new_improved_lottery/ ?
I don't know what he thinks of it, but everyone should give these two pieces (especially the second one) a read. I was absolutely ready to hate it given the title of the first one (I, too, am in the "buying a dream" rationality camp), but the second piece especially was just too damn good.
Re: Here’s $100. Can you win $800M at Powerball?
#138I saw the headline and thought it was a startup parable with the $100 representing VC money and $800M a huge exit. I need to be less cynical!
Re: Here’s $100. Can you win $800M at Powerball?
#139I'm sure if you put $100 in stocks, you get much better odds to make a fortune!
Re: Here’s $100. Can you win $800M at Powerball?
#140I clicked "play $100" 4 times and lost. So I clicked "bet paycheck" and entered $10,000 (no I don't really make that much).
And boom, I won $1,000,000. So I guess I should start playing the lottery?
(I suspect there's a bug).