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Here’s $100. Can you win $800M at Powerball?

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Re: Here’s $100. Can you win $800M at Powerball?

#81

Post by Vraxx »

Splines wrote: post #58
cableshaft wrote: post #14

The comment on the site where some people play when it's a high payout more for wanting to participate in the cultural event (i.e. go see Star Wars in theaters) than the expectation that they'll win makes a lot of sense. I think that's mainly why I get a few tickets sometimes when it gets super high, even though I know my chances of winning are significantly worse and my chances of winning at all are almost nothing.

More people buying doesn't change your chances - it potentially lowers your payout. Makes me wonder if getting more people to play higher jackpots ends up evening things out in the end.

It may even out from an expected value for the purchaser point of view, but the profits keep climbing for Powerball the more people that hop on the bandwagon.

Re: Here’s $100. Can you win $800M at Powerball?

#82

Post by bradleyjg »

QuotedForTruth wrote: post #77
ethbro wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be fair, wouldn't the odds of QuickDraw picking the same numbers twice (even if there weren't a built in limit against that) be the same odds as winning the jackpot in the first place?

Only if you are only picking two sets of numbers. If you are doing 10k sets, the last set has a 9999/292M chance of being the same numbers as one of the other sets.

Right, that's the birthday problem.

Re: Here’s $100. Can you win $800M at Powerball?

#84

Post by KingMob »

aus_ wrote: post #47

Free YC 2016 application: Build website to crowdsource $292,201,338. Buy all the lotto tickets. Pay back investors 150% of their investment. Make ~ $69.5M. (assuming lotto tickets are a $1) (someone else can figure out the break even point after taxes)

Something like this happened in Virginia in early 1992. At a certain point, the jackpot/(cost of buying all numbers) ratio was high enough that an Australian business group swooped in, hiring volunteers to purchase as many tickets as possible. They only managed to cover 5 million out of 7 million possibilities (ran out of time), but they still won the lottery, winning a $27 mil jackpot.

Re: Here’s $100. Can you win $800M at Powerball?

#85

Post by elf25 »

jchendy wrote: post #17
baldeagle wrote: post #6

Isn't this the wrong problem? It lets you enter X dollars, then it simulates if you played $1 on X numbers of sequential drawings... which would have terrible odds. Wouldn't it be better to simulate X numbers on Y draws, which would lead you to know the number of times/people would have to play to win. I don't think probability is communicative, is it? EDIT: It would also be neat to simulate the number of winners you…

It's also not clear what the end condition is. I edited the source so that it always picks my numbers, and it just keeps going. So far I've spent $2,734 and won over a trillion.

you are the only cadet to pass the kobiashilotto test.

Re: Here’s $100. Can you win $800M at Powerball?

#87

Post by dsl »

worried_citizen wrote: post #76

I recently purchased a OneRNG trng and decided to give it a chance at guessing the right number with its quantum-noise super powers. Reading from it overnight produced 24 million guesses and no winner. Though several were just one number off. Too bad so sad. I'm really curious what RNG the registers use when people say "let the computer guess for me". I'm pretty sure they don't all have a TRNG installed on the circui…

"Quick Pick" numbers are not generated at the store. Regardless of if you pick the numbers or let the computer do it, your request is sent in real time back to a lotto office where the real ticket is securely generated (with a TRNG if you so choose). The local terminal then receives a bitmap to print out.

Re: Here’s $100. Can you win $800M at Powerball?

#88

Post by aetherson »

cbhl wrote: post #22
jchendy wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's also not clear what the end condition is. I edited the source so that it always picks my numbers, and it just keeps going. So far I've spent $2,734 and won over a trillion.

It stops when balance = 0, i.e. you spent $x + all your winnings on lottery tickets.

Right, which is some bullshit. I mean, they cheated. Yes, it is mathematically provable that a random walk will eventually touch 0. That would be the case even if the lottery was strongly positive expected value.

They ask you to comment if you won. Their program guarantees you lose when it terminates -- even if you hit the 1:292,000,000 odds.

Re: Here’s $100. Can you win $800M at Powerball?

#89

Post by praptak »

rdtsc wrote: post #18

The obvious equivalent for the HN crowd: "Here is $50k. Now quit your job and start a start-up" Difficulty bonus -- startup idea is generated by a Markov chain and could be anything -- "Uber for dogs", "Taxidermied pets as drones" etc.

"Negative lottery as a service"

Customers (drawn from the rational HN crowd) pick lottery numbers and pledge not to play the lottery for a period of time (selectable from a really cool animated dropdown). At the end of the period we mail them the amount saved on tickets or, in the unlikely event the numbers actually came up, lost by not playing.

As premium paid service, infinite period of time with physical printed yearly reports and cool framed diplomas to hang on the wall.

Re: Here’s $100. Can you win $800M at Powerball?

#90

Post by pcmaffey »

guelo wrote: post #37
rdtsc wrote: post #18

The obvious equivalent for the HN crowd: "Here is $50k. Now quit your job and start a start-up" Difficulty bonus -- startup idea is generated by a Markov chain and could be anything -- "Uber for dogs", "Taxidermied pets as drones" etc.

1. The odds of succeeding at a startup are a lot better than 292 million to 1. 2. You get a paycheck, even if it's less than market rate. 3. It's fun and exciting to use someone else's money to try to come up with a new business type.

4. You're much more likely to learn and grow professionally tackling problems you likely wouldn't otherwise face (or at least at a higher rate).
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