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Here’s $100. Can you win $800M at Powerball?

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Re: Here’s $100. Can you win $800M at Powerball?

#41
post #16

I think most of us realize that they're not going to win, but when the jackpot becomes a national event every 6 months or whatever, there's usually some joy in buying a ticket anyway

There's more joy in giving $2 to a person who needs it.

Make that $5. $2 doesn't even get them a sandwich anymore.

Re: Here’s $100. Can you win $800M at Powerball?

#44

This is a fascinating sentence: While the large jackpot prize may be tempting, it's extremely hard to have that one ticket in 292 million. I think my favorite part is that extremely hard isn't a very accurate description of how unlikely it is.

I saw a theory somewhere that human beings aren't very good at intuitively understanding even large order of magnitude differences between unlikely events. We have a mental category of "unlikely but not impossible" and slot everything from one in a thousand to one in a billion into that bucket.

I.e. the Lloyd Christmas bucket (Dumb and Dumber). "You mean, not good like one out of a hundred?" "More like one in a million." "So you're telling me there's a chance!"

Re: Here’s $100. Can you win $800M at Powerball?

#46
post #16

I think most of us realize that they're not going to win, but when the jackpot becomes a national event every 6 months or whatever, there's usually some joy in buying a ticket anyway

There's more joy in giving $2 to a person who needs it.

Those things aren't mutually exclusive

Re: Here’s $100. Can you win $800M at Powerball?

#47
Free YC 2016 application:

Build website to crowdsource $292,201,338. Buy all the lotto tickets. Pay back investors 150% of their investment. Make ~ $69.5M.

(assuming lotto tickets are a $1) (someone else can figure out the break even point after taxes)

Re: Here’s $100. Can you win $800M at Powerball?

#48

Question: With a jackpot of $800mil and the chances of winning 1 in ~300mil, could you not buy 300mil tickets? (Excepting, of course, the risk that someone else wins and the cost of taxes).

The cash payout is ~$500 million, and after taxes you may end up with $309 million.

So, yeah, probably not a winning strategy.

Re: Here’s $100. Can you win $800M at Powerball?

#49

Question: With a jackpot of $800mil and the chances of winning 1 in ~300mil, could you not buy 300mil tickets? (Excepting, of course, the risk that someone else wins and the cost of taxes).

You could. Lamentably I don't have 300 million lying around.

I think there is a limit on # tickets purchased.

When there are cracks in the lottery games there are people who do find ways to exploit them.

Re: Here’s $100. Can you win $800M at Powerball?

#50
post #47

Free YC 2016 application: Build website to crowdsource $292,201,338. Buy all the lotto tickets. Pay back investors 150% of their investment. Make ~ $69.5M. (assuming lotto tickets are a $1) (someone else can figure out the break even point after taxes)

Hope someone else didn't win cutting the prize in half.
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