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Here’s $100. Can you win $800M at Powerball?

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Re: Here’s $100. Can you win $800M at Powerball?

#31

Post by QuotedForTruth »

baldeagle wrote: post #6

Isn't this the wrong problem? It lets you enter X dollars, then it simulates if you played $1 on X numbers of sequential drawings... which would have terrible odds. Wouldn't it be better to simulate X numbers on Y draws, which would lead you to know the number of times/people would have to play to win. I don't think probability is communicative, is it? EDIT: It would also be neat to simulate the number of winners you…

Its not exactly the same but its pretty close when the chances are so low anyways.

Playing 10,000 times in 1 drawing gives you the probability of winning the jackpot:

0.00003422297813=10000/292201338

Playing 10,000 times in 10,000 drawings gives you the probability of winning the jackpot:

0.00003422239258=1-((292201338-1)/292201338)^10000

The difference gets more significant if you play more. For 10 million plays its:

.0342 vs .0336

If you play only 100 times the probability of a jackpot is the same to 7 significant digits.

-edit I put it on $1M and let it run. I hit the 5 numbers, $1M prize, at some point around $150k spent.

Re: Here’s $100. Can you win $800M at Powerball?

#34

Post by bradleyjg »

maxerickson wrote: post #10

This is a fascinating sentence: While the large jackpot prize may be tempting, it's extremely hard to have that one ticket in 292 million. I think my favorite part is that extremely hard isn't a very accurate description of how unlikely it is.

I saw a theory somewhere that human beings aren't very good at intuitively understanding even large order of magnitude differences between unlikely events. We have a mental category of "unlikely but not impossible" and slot everything from one in a thousand to one in a billion into that bucket.

Re: Here’s $100. Can you win $800M at Powerball?

#35

Post by Vraxx »

baldeagle wrote: post #11
sandworm101 wrote: post #9

Is this an article or an attempt to harvest paycheck information?

If it is, it is going to be skewed. I just put in $292,201,338 (the 1 in .... odds for the jackpot).

And funny enough this doesn't guarantee that you'll even hit the jackpot in that total. Man the lottery can be fun!

(to be clear I'm not implying that you said that total will guarantee a jackpot win)

Re: Here’s $100. Can you win $800M at Powerball?

#37

Post by guelo »

rdtsc wrote: post #18

The obvious equivalent for the HN crowd: "Here is $50k. Now quit your job and start a start-up" Difficulty bonus -- startup idea is generated by a Markov chain and could be anything -- "Uber for dogs", "Taxidermied pets as drones" etc.

1. The odds of succeeding at a startup are a lot better than 292 million to 1.

2. You get a paycheck, even if it's less than market rate.

3. It's fun and exciting to use someone else's money to try to come up with a new business type.

Re: Here’s $100. Can you win $800M at Powerball?

#38

Post by baldeagle »

Vraxx wrote: post #35
baldeagle wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If it is, it is going to be skewed. I just put in $292,201,338 (the 1 in .... odds for the jackpot).

And funny enough this doesn't guarantee that you'll even hit the jackpot in that total. Man the lottery can be fun! (to be clear I'm not implying that you said that total will guarantee a jackpot win)

I suspect the simulator will run until well after the actual drawing (it just doesn't play fast enough to burn through that much cash).

Re: Here’s $100. Can you win $800M at Powerball?

#39

Post by bradleyjg »

QuotedForTruth wrote: post #31
baldeagle wrote: post #6

Isn't this the wrong problem? It lets you enter X dollars, then it simulates if you played $1 on X numbers of sequential drawings... which would have terrible odds. Wouldn't it be better to simulate X numbers on Y draws, which would lead you to know the number of times/people would have to play to win. I don't think probability is communicative, is it? EDIT: It would also be neat to simulate the number of winners you…

Its not exactly the same but its pretty close when the chances are so low anyways. Playing 10,000 times in 1 drawing gives you the probability of winning the jackpot: 0.00003422297813=10000/292201338 Playing 10,000 times in 10,000 drawings gives you the probability of winning the jackpot: 0.00003422239258=1-((292201338-1)/292201338)^10000 The difference gets more significant if you play more. For 10 million plays its…

If you play quickdraw you could get the same numbers twice. I think with that caveat the odds should be the same.
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