G.M. Invests $500M in Lyft • Hacker News Board

Re: G.M. Invests $500M in Lyft

#381

Post by jmspring » Tue, Jan 05, 2016, 4:34 AM UTC

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #140

It is predicted that autonomous cars will reduce America's fleet of vehicles by something like 10-fold [1]. I think it will unfold something like this: FIRST, instead three cars for mom, dad and kid, the average family has one car that drops mom off to work, then dad, and then the teen off to school. SECOND, aforementioned car makes use of its down time to drive strangers around via Uber, Lyft, et cetera. The car's o…

4 will happen sooner? Doubtful. Get out of US cities. People love their cars and as such, mechanics just like plumbers and electricians are going to be around for years.

There will not be a predominance of consumer owned self driving cars in my lifetime, despite what Tesla, etc. think. Just like how most rail transit in the US makes little sense due to lack of density, the autonomous car won't appeal to everyone due to lack of use, want of control, etc. As such, mechanics will be around for a long while.

People buy vehicles like Toyota Tacomas and will own them for 20+ years. I see that not changing with the 2016s, despite all the announcements of every major automotive company working on autonomous cars.

Maybe in major cities in the US (maybe) and maybe in parts of Europe.

But I don't see it. It's about as farcical as door to door delivery by drone with Amazon. Looks great in theory, practice (and practicality) not really once you dig into it.

Re: G.M. Invests $500M in Lyft

#382

Post by csours » Tue, Jan 05, 2016, 4:36 AM UTC

laichzeit0 wrote: post #380

ssmoot wrote: post #240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's crazy unrealistic that autonomous cars will be the majority in anything short of 20 to 30 years. The tech doesn't even exist yet. It's taken that long just to see ABS become standard equipment across 90% of vehicles. And this just completely ignores the ~5 to 7 year product cycle. There's no way that in just one or two generations of the Taurus we have a completely self-driving car capable of operating i…

I don't see why we couldn't just add more intelligence to the roads to make it easier for cars to navigate. Before we didn't have tar roads with road signs and traffic lights, etc. It would be infinitely more feasible to make roads more clever than trying to cram human-like driving intelligence into car AI.

Certainly we can, and we will. It will probably roll out in some Michigan cities (and has), San Francisco, Austin, and a few cities.

Then... we wait. How long until Idaho has instrumented cities?

What about construction areas? What about parades? Even with Vehicle to infrastructure communication you will still need AI.

Re: G.M. Invests $500M in Lyft

#383

Post by jmspring » Tue, Jan 05, 2016, 4:41 AM UTC

stcredzero wrote: post #361

Merad wrote: post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry, I think this is just totally disconnected from the reality of the average American who lives outside of a major urban center. 1. Mom, dad, and kid all need to go to work/school at roughly the same time. If they all have a 15-20 minute commute (well below average for many areas) and the destinations for all three aren't in the same immediate vicinity, we're right back to the family needing 2-3 cars. 2. Eh, no.…

The average person's car is somewhere between messy and a pigsty. Give people an economic incentive for keeping a neat car, then you're going to see neat cars. This is clearly true for the current Uber and Lyft fleets.

"Current uber and Lyft fleets" -- they made a conscious economic decision. Maybe think about reality of life, a commute, family, etc.

A friend with an incredibly smart 7 year old still has a messy car. Her daughter, despite the ability to read and understand things well above her age, is a 7 year old. The car is a mess.

When it comes to these pie in the sky utopian scenarios, I wish people on HN would step outside and actual observe every day people.

Re: G.M. Invests $500M in Lyft

#384

Post by JumpCrisscross » Tue, Jan 05, 2016, 5:02 AM UTC

prawn wrote: post #355

wadenick wrote: post #235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, I agree with your premise here. Personal anecdote, I lived in San Francisco in the city 8 years. It was by far more economical for me to have both Zipcar and taxis (later UberX and Lyft) combined per month than to have a vehicle lease + parking costs + insurance/maintenance/gas. By far. In both $ and time. I'm not certain that other elements of your vision work in non-metro areas.

What percentage of people live in metro areas though?

In 2010, 80.7% of Americans live in an areas with an overall population density of 2,534 people per square mile [1].

[1] http://www.reuters.com/article/usa-cities-population-idUSL2E...

Re: G.M. Invests $500M in Lyft

#385

Post by spacehome » Tue, Jan 05, 2016, 5:05 AM UTC

twistedpair wrote: post #349

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #140

It is predicted that autonomous cars will reduce America's fleet of vehicles by something like 10-fold [1]. I think it will unfold something like this: FIRST, instead three cars for mom, dad and kid, the average family has one car that drops mom off to work, then dad, and then the teen off to school. SECOND, aforementioned car makes use of its down time to drive strangers around via Uber, Lyft, et cetera. The car's o…

Classic Jevon's Paradox [1]. Use of the resource (cars) will become more efficient, and rather than use decreasing, it actually simulates increased usage. Desktop processing apps were supposed to make office workers so productive they would only work a 4 hour work week. The reality? Workers are now so connected that they end up working 6-7 days a week. If I can rent out my car when I'm not using it, my car is cheaper…

The driverless car that you rent will make the fixed costs of using a car go to zero but increase the marginal costs of driving (because there's a middle-man now). However, Jevon's Paradox crucially depends on the marginal cost decreasing, so I don't think Jevon's Paradox applies in this case.

Re: G.M. Invests $500M in Lyft

#386

Post by vonklaus » Tue, Jan 05, 2016, 6:33 AM UTC

ghshephard wrote: post #345

MajorLOL wrote: post #342

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> cycle of poverty is strong in these rural locations because of the lack of public transportation Because? Really? Because someone has to buy a car? I think your feelings are in the way of your cognitive ability. >of low-income people moving to common destinations I'm sure there are plenty of low-income people moving to the suburbs/rural areas because they are being priced out of high density centers. Lets not forge…

Re: Buses - if you get a chance, come over to Singapore. The buses come by every 3-5 minutes, have world-class air-conditioning, and on the half-dozen or so routes that I ride regularly, I don't think I've ever had to stand. I rarely bother to even use their (world class) MRT I love the buses so much. An advanced city is not a place where the poor move about in cars, rather it’s where even the rich use public transpo…

Singapore is ~1/4 of the size of Rhode Island and ~200 square miles larger than lichtenstein, the smallest country in Europe. It's like 50k USD to own the ability to own a car which expires in 10 years at which point you will have to scrap it or rebuy this cert. A passat is somewhere north of 150k.

Also, I would add that subways are probably a better way forward than busses for a modern city, or at least some sort of connected underground transport system.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Driving_in_Singapore

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2012-06-04/singapore-...

https://www.google.com/search?q=singapore+size

https://www.google.com/search?q=rhode+island+size

https://www.google.com/search?q=size+of+the+vatican

Re: G.M. Invests $500M in Lyft

#387

Post by jayjay71 » Tue, Jan 05, 2016, 6:47 AM UTC

peter303 wrote: post #132

GM had and still has an impressive technical research center. Its just that establishment big companies dont get the respect that startup companies do. Nor can the employees win big like in a startup IPO. General Electric is currently running a humorous TV commercial about this. A hipster engineers friends throw him a "new job party". But they go slackjaw when they discover he joinged GE instead of Facebook. GE has t…

As someone who used to work at a research lab funded by GM, I can tell you they are incompetent. I was so put off by the experience that I will make sure to never buy a car made by GM.

Re: G.M. Invests $500M in Lyft

#388

Post by crdb » Tue, Jan 05, 2016, 7:47 AM UTC

Tossrock wrote: post #377

crdb wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Uber seems like a company run by pricks I recently interviewed with Uber in Asia, spoke to a half dozen people there right up to the head of the region and many Americans who have been with the company for years, and I did not get the job (so, clearly not biased towards the company). Here's my one data point: they were all really nice, professional, competent people I'd actually want to work with. When I say nice,…

> (imagine what would happen if there was a rape or robbery attempt by an Uber driver) This has already happened: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-34578477 They did some really incredible PR on it (adding the "emergency" button, quick dissociation of the driver and the company, etc), and seem to have gotten off basically scot-free in of public opinion.

Yeah, I discussed that incident as well. They are quite quiet about their security efforts for obvious reasons (you don't want to give criminals hints on how to get away with it) but beyond the obvious dissuasive factor of drivers' identities being known, and bad characters being weeded out quickly by the rating, they were looking into things like comparing path taken by the car with the path it should be taking, flagging up rides to be reviewed and rapidly sent help if necessary.

It's a massive step up from what was available with taxis before. I remember when I worked in Mumbai, getting ripped off systematically until my co-workers helped me find "Meru Cool Cabs" which were always on time, professional and charging my non-Hindi speaking, non-Indian looking self by the meter. That, and trying to haggle on a fare with autorickshaws (resulting in 1 in 20 agreeing - the rest wanted 10x) to go home from the Big Bazaar in Vikhroli, and wondering if the shortest path REALLY has to go through that slum. Wish there had been Uber back then.

Re: G.M. Invests $500M in Lyft

#389

Post by Ntrails » Tue, Jan 05, 2016, 9:33 AM UTC

jmspring wrote: post #383

stcredzero wrote: post #361

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The average person's car is somewhere between messy and a pigsty. Give people an economic incentive for keeping a neat car, then you're going to see neat cars. This is clearly true for the current Uber and Lyft fleets.

"Current uber and Lyft fleets" -- they made a conscious economic decision. Maybe think about reality of life, a commute, family, etc. A friend with an incredibly smart 7 year old still has a messy car. Her daughter, despite the ability to read and understand things well above her age, is a 7 year old. The car is a mess. When it comes to these pie in the sky utopian scenarios, I wish people on HN would step outside an…

>Her daughter, despite the ability to read and understand things well above her age, is a 7 year old. The car is a mess.

Right, and that's a choice. It has nothing to do with "she's a 7 year old" and everything to do with "she's allowed to make a mess in the car".

I was never allowed to eat in the car beyond the odd sweet, and I wouldn't have thrown wrappers or anything else on the floor on pain of death... I find it mind boggling that the child is blamed for the state of the car, when realistically it is just a parenting choice. There are 7 year olds with exceptional table manners even in this modern day, and there are 7 year olds I'm embarrassed to eat at the same table as.

I'm fine with people choosing to have messy cars (mine oscillates between spotless and a dump over ~3 month periods) - but it's a choice and other choices can be made.

Re: G.M. Invests $500M in Lyft

#390

Post by IanCal » Tue, Jan 05, 2016, 10:09 AM UTC

MajorLOL wrote: post #258

IanCal wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> People don't want to spend their commute with random people who just happen to be going the same direction Many, many people already do this on public transport. What we're talking about is general door-to-door public transport. Car-pooling is awkward to arrange, particularly for short joined parts of the journey (e.g. picking someone up part way and dropping them off a little later), and it's extremely hard to arr…

>Many, many people already do this on public transport Total fantasy. Virtually nobody uses public transport. 5% of commuters use public transport. Relative to the car-pooling, who sees double the volume of users as public transport, 10%. http://traveltrends.transportation.org/Documents/CA10-4.pdf

Close to 20% across the UK (representing about 4 million people) and close to 50% in London (compared to 35% driving).

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/census/2011-census-analysis/di...

These are not insignificant figures.

If you say "people don't want to do X" when millions of people in my country already do a more extreme form of X, then I think you're wrong.