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G.M. Invests $500M in Lyft

nytimes.com

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Re: G.M. Invests $500M in Lyft

#361

Post by stcredzero »

Merad wrote: post #229
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #140

It is predicted that autonomous cars will reduce America's fleet of vehicles by something like 10-fold [1]. I think it will unfold something like this: FIRST, instead three cars for mom, dad and kid, the average family has one car that drops mom off to work, then dad, and then the teen off to school. SECOND, aforementioned car makes use of its down time to drive strangers around via Uber, Lyft, et cetera. The car's o…

Sorry, I think this is just totally disconnected from the reality of the average American who lives outside of a major urban center. 1. Mom, dad, and kid all need to go to work/school at roughly the same time. If they all have a 15-20 minute commute (well below average for many areas) and the destinations for all three aren't in the same immediate vicinity, we're right back to the family needing 2-3 cars. 2. Eh, no.…

The average person's car is somewhere between messy and a pigsty.

Give people an economic incentive for keeping a neat car, then you're going to see neat cars. This is clearly true for the current Uber and Lyft fleets.

Re: G.M. Invests $500M in Lyft

#362

Post by astrange »

prawn wrote: post #354
jonathankoren wrote: post #329

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Never lived in the rural area did you? No one likes buses, because buses are slow. They're slow because they make lots of stops that are irrelevant to your trip. As someone that regularly rode the school bus on a route that took an hour, compared to a 10 minute direct route. Fuck buses. Yes taxis, exist, but not many. The only people I knew that ever took them were people that lost their licenses. What you've actuall…

Those are generally larger buses that are completely fixed in their route and stops, right? Smaller buses able to optimise routes to make fewer stops will help. Split the current big bus into 3-4 smaller ones and the people going close to the full distance might not stop for the first 80% of stops. That would cut out a lot of time. Obviously rural areas will be the last to see these changes for non-commercial traffic…

If the city isn't designed for shared transit, even a small trip is going to be awful. SuperShuttle, which picks up 4-5 groups at a time from airports and doesn't use a fixed route, can still add hours to your trip home in LA.

On the other hand, I've used airport busses between transit hubs in cities where everyone takes the subway and it was really quite nice. Better if I ever figure out luggage delivery, of course.

Re: G.M. Invests $500M in Lyft

#363

Post by omarforgotpwd »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #140

It is predicted that autonomous cars will reduce America's fleet of vehicles by something like 10-fold [1]. I think it will unfold something like this: FIRST, instead three cars for mom, dad and kid, the average family has one car that drops mom off to work, then dad, and then the teen off to school. SECOND, aforementioned car makes use of its down time to drive strangers around via Uber, Lyft, et cetera. The car's o…

More likely mom dad and the kid will each have three cars

Re: G.M. Invests $500M in Lyft

#364

Post by tedmiston »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #140

It is predicted that autonomous cars will reduce America's fleet of vehicles by something like 10-fold [1]. I think it will unfold something like this: FIRST, instead three cars for mom, dad and kid, the average family has one car that drops mom off to work, then dad, and then the teen off to school. SECOND, aforementioned car makes use of its down time to drive strangers around via Uber, Lyft, et cetera. The car's o…

With respect to the third point, I think this needs a source.

People in NYC don't own cars because public transit options are convenient, extensive (at least in Manhattan), and inexpensive.

While Uber/Lyft/etc are convenient and flexible, an unlimited MTA pass is $117/mo. It's hard to imagine Uber's cost dropping so dramatically so as to compete with that.

But maybe you'd argue that they don't need to, because Uber is replacing taxis [1]. I do think the discounted car sharing offerings like uberPOOL and Lyft Line could bring competition to public transit. It'll be interesting to see where their pricing settles in the long run and if/when either experiments with an unlimited rides offering.

1: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/uber-is-taking-millions-...

Re: G.M. Invests $500M in Lyft

#365

Post by pmorici »

tommoor wrote: post #25
pmorici wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The big difference for me is that Lyft allows you to tip in the app that's very telling.

personally I'd like to see startups help to move us away from a tipping economy, kind of bummed when they added that

I'd be fine with no tipping if I thought the drivers were being paid reasonably but I don't think they are.

Re: G.M. Invests $500M in Lyft

#366

Post by Tycho »

stcredzero wrote: post #361
Merad wrote: post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry, I think this is just totally disconnected from the reality of the average American who lives outside of a major urban center. 1. Mom, dad, and kid all need to go to work/school at roughly the same time. If they all have a 15-20 minute commute (well below average for many areas) and the destinations for all three aren't in the same immediate vicinity, we're right back to the family needing 2-3 cars. 2. Eh, no.…

The average person's car is somewhere between messy and a pigsty. Give people an economic incentive for keeping a neat car, then you're going to see neat cars. This is clearly true for the current Uber and Lyft fleets.

Cars could make pit stops to get cleaned while the owners are not using them.

Re: G.M. Invests $500M in Lyft

#367

Post by tomwalsham »

BookmarkSaver wrote: post #166
axplusb wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How about Mom, Dad, and Junior share rides with other Moms, Dads, and Juniors who are headed in the same direction?

Because that is already a possibility (carpooling is an established idea), and the critical reasons why it isn't more popular don't significantly change with automated cars. People don't want to spend their commute with random people who just happen to be going the same direction. Perhaps more important is that it creates a strict commitment to be prepared to leave on time and a reliance on others leaving on time.

You just literally described trains and buses. Don't assume the form of the vehicle remains the intimate 3-across sedan style.

Re: G.M. Invests $500M in Lyft

#368

Post by tomwalsham »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #140

It is predicted that autonomous cars will reduce America's fleet of vehicles by something like 10-fold [1]. I think it will unfold something like this: FIRST, instead three cars for mom, dad and kid, the average family has one car that drops mom off to work, then dad, and then the teen off to school. SECOND, aforementioned car makes use of its down time to drive strangers around via Uber, Lyft, et cetera. The car's o…

I'm in the 'sooner rather than later' camp, and have one more key driver.

Insurance. As soon as human drivers are provably poorer than automated drivers, the cost to insure a meat driver goes up. It will not take long to build a very strong case for the lower risk profile once the early adopter vehicles take the road.

Re: G.M. Invests $500M in Lyft

#369

Post by ape4 »

amyjess wrote: post #178
k-mcgrady wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have evidence of this? I didn't think it was possible to find out what drivers rated you and it seems odd that they'd expect a cash tip when the point of the system is that it's cashless.

Here's one: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/uber-driver-complaints-e... > So we compiled a list of seven things you might be doing to annoy your Uber driver and destroy your rating. Avoid these behaviors to ensure a smooth ride for both you and your driver. > 2. You don't tip. From one of the biggest Uber driver blogs: http://therideshareguy.com/should-uber-passengers-tip-their-... > I often see drivers referring…

Just how would a rider tip?

Re: G.M. Invests $500M in Lyft

#370

Post by tedmiston »

adevine wrote: post #96
kbenson wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'm guessing your particular objection here is that they're a non-financial company and it doesn't seem to be part of their core business? Although I'm pretty sure every major automaker is also a financial company, and has been for quite a while. All those special 0% down or cash back deals don't come from the dealer.

GM's financial arm was GMAC, which, while bailed out during the financial crises, eventually rebranded and IPO'ed as Ally Financial. The US Treasury made a ~ $2.4 billion profit on a $17.2 billion investment: https://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages/j...

I made some pretty unreasonable but convenient assumptions with the basic compound interest formula in back-of-the-envelope math to arrive at ~2.25% annual interest rate.

http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=compound+interest&a=*C....

Assumptions:

- I know the amount was not dispersed all at once at the start

- I have no idea what compounding frequency seems appropriate

- Does not account for inflation

- Time frame: 12/29/2008–10/17/2014 per the linked pdf [1]

Aside: $17.2B 2008 dollars adjusted for inflation becomes $18.89B 2014 dollars.

https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=17%2C200%2C000%2C000+2...

That makes the return a bit less exciting.

I'd love to model this in a more accurate way if others know how that might be done.

1: https://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Documen...

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