I'm wondering if this an IP raid by GM. A couple of terms of the deal are that GM gets a seat on the board (for $500m, I would expect so) and access to Lyft's software. The latter might be the important part to GM.
G.M. Invests $500M in Lyft
251–260 of 402 posts
Re: G.M. Invests $500M in Lyft
#252Earlier quoted context omitted.
I was under the impression that Ford was the only one that didn't take a bailout.
You are correct.
IIRC Ford actually got very lucky in that they were actually in huge trouble before the market crash and decided to mortgage the company right before the credit market seized up. So that was really why they didn't need to take the bailout.
Re: G.M. Invests $500M in Lyft
#253It is predicted that autonomous cars will reduce America's fleet of vehicles by something like 10-fold [1]. I think it will unfold something like this: FIRST, instead three cars for mom, dad and kid, the average family has one car that drops mom off to work, then dad, and then the teen off to school. SECOND, aforementioned car makes use of its down time to drive strangers around via Uber, Lyft, et cetera. The car's o…
> Barring massive public subsidy for car ownership
You're talking like that isn't something already
> AND FINALLY, as distributed car ownership falls, retail locations for their maintenance go out of business
The number of these doesn't matter as long as they're within reasonable driving distance.
Re: G.M. Invests $500M in Lyft
#254It is predicted that autonomous cars will reduce America's fleet of vehicles by something like 10-fold [1]. I think it will unfold something like this: FIRST, instead three cars for mom, dad and kid, the average family has one car that drops mom off to work, then dad, and then the teen off to school. SECOND, aforementioned car makes use of its down time to drive strangers around via Uber, Lyft, et cetera. The car's o…
Sorry, I think this is just totally disconnected from the reality of the average American who lives outside of a major urban center. 1. Mom, dad, and kid all need to go to work/school at roughly the same time. If they all have a 15-20 minute commute (well below average for many areas) and the destinations for all three aren't in the same immediate vicinity, we're right back to the family needing 2-3 cars. 2. Eh, no.…
1. Ok, maybe 2 cars if the locations are in completely disparate locations, but carpooling is possible.
2. User feedback could be a useful deterrent against messing up someone else's SDC, in the same way that both drivers and passengers can leave feedback with Uber today.
3. True, but one can adapt to this.
Or maybe i'm just hopelessly optimistic... :)
Re: G.M. Invests $500M in Lyft
#255It is predicted that autonomous cars will reduce America's fleet of vehicles by something like 10-fold [1]. I think it will unfold something like this: FIRST, instead three cars for mom, dad and kid, the average family has one car that drops mom off to work, then dad, and then the teen off to school. SECOND, aforementioned car makes use of its down time to drive strangers around via Uber, Lyft, et cetera. The car's o…
I think, just like with most predictions that are based on trends, the current set of expectations will be uprooted by an unforeseen technological advancement. I'll even go as far as predicting that this technological advancement will be a personal (or family) aerial vehicle[1] that makes commuting as easy as vehicular travel, but perhaps safer, and definitely faster. In other words, I think the automobile will dimin…
A personal gyrocopter-like flying car would definitely be a luxury vehicle. Flying is still pretty expensive compared to just rolling on the ground. Only the wealthy would be able to afford such quick, direct travel. But then again, I see telepresence hardware as the thing that takes over as the mode of "transportation" for the wealthy businessmen and women. Why would you need to head into the city to attend a board meeting when Cisco would have a VR system ready to go in your home office? Sit at the desk while multiple cameras create a 3D representation of you. Your colleagues' images are projected around you so it appears as if everyone is in the same room. Motion tracking knows where your eyes are looking and where your head is facing so the images shift according to your viewpoint. Get up and give a presentation standing in front of your desk and get your virtual place in the room shifted to the front.
Everyone can hear you, see you, and most importantly, see your body language. Go a little further with hardware power and have the computer place clothes on you. Wear a ratty tshirt in your home but wear a nice Armani suit in the meeting. Some of this tech is here already but just nowhere near as fast as it would need to be to achieve perfect, virtual telepresence.
Re: G.M. Invests $500M in Lyft
#256I don't know whether this is a real difference or not, but Lyft "feels" like a much nicer company than Uber. I'm not thrilled about Lyft's rampant hipster-branding, but Uber seems like a company run by pricks. Maybe it's just because they're the underdog, but I'm really rooting for Lyft.
When I was in Colorado Springs, Lyft was much more available than Uber so I used it for the first time after only having ever used Uber for the past year. The major thing I found different was the driver wanted me to sit in the front and was much more enthusiastic about conversation. It wasn't bad but it was definitely different and somewhat offputting. Not sure if that was just a single event, but I wonder if each c…
I've found Uber drivers (all over the country) to be just the right amount of chatty, and very friendly. Haven't tried Lyft yet.
Re: G.M. Invests $500M in Lyft
#257It is predicted that autonomous cars will reduce America's fleet of vehicles by something like 10-fold [1]. I think it will unfold something like this: FIRST, instead three cars for mom, dad and kid, the average family has one car that drops mom off to work, then dad, and then the teen off to school. SECOND, aforementioned car makes use of its down time to drive strangers around via Uber, Lyft, et cetera. The car's o…
The only thing I'd like to add is that if the car is used this often the utilization rate of the car would significantly increase thus causing the car to go in for maintenance more often. Average mileage on a car is 13,000 per year and if a car is being used to drop the whole family off and then do rides on its own you are looking at 70,000-100,000 on a car per year. You are encouraged to get an oil change every 6,00…
>Not only that but power trains are engineered with a half life of ~250-300,000 before they become unusable
This makes me think of an interesting side effect.
Will there be pressure on automotive engineering teams to significantly increase drivetrain half-life in consumer vehicles due to automated-driving?
I imagine there are trade-offs made at present that limit the drivetrain half-life simply because there isn't a great deal of pressure to increase the life of a consumer car beyond 300,000 miles ( 300,000 mi * 1 yr / ~10,000 mi = 30 yr old cars).
Semi-trucks may be a nice example where a similar engineering pressure currently exists. A mechanic friend once told me semi's can drive a million+ miles.
Re: G.M. Invests $500M in Lyft
#258Earlier quoted context omitted.
Because that is already a possibility (carpooling is an established idea), and the critical reasons why it isn't more popular don't significantly change with automated cars. People don't want to spend their commute with random people who just happen to be going the same direction. Perhaps more important is that it creates a strict commitment to be prepared to leave on time and a reliance on others leaving on time.
> People don't want to spend their commute with random people who just happen to be going the same direction Many, many people already do this on public transport. What we're talking about is general door-to-door public transport. Car-pooling is awkward to arrange, particularly for short joined parts of the journey (e.g. picking someone up part way and dropping them off a little later), and it's extremely hard to arr…
>Many, many people already do this on public transport
Total fantasy. Virtually nobody uses public transport. 5% of commuters use public transport. Relative to the car-pooling, who sees double the volume of users as public transport, 10%.
Re: G.M. Invests $500M in Lyft
#259Earlier quoted context omitted.
Carpooling in private cars is very different from carpooling in self-driven cars. While you own the private cars, it's very reasonable to expect you not to share the ride with strangers or to occupy another's car. However, if it's a self-driven car which no one owns - it's just like public transit, but way more efficient. Instead of buying a monthly train or bus pass you just pay your self-driven car rental/lease, to…
As long as cars aren't prohibitively expensive and remain symbols of personal freedom and identity, then people will pay for the luxury of not riding in public transportation.
Some people have an aversion to riding on public transit when it is used by people large income/wealth disparities, i.e. the professional doesn't want to be on the same bus as the indigent person.
Those people might use a vehicle subscription, because the cost of private rides would still be lower than the costs of private vehicle ownership (depreciation, maintenance, insurance). Many people would pay for the privilege of a private ride (like they do with Uber/Lyft now).
If car subscriptions services succeed and are nearly ubiquitous, the personal-freedom symbolism of car ownership will degrade.
Then, if people want to own a car as a status symbol, they will probably be better served by a more expensive one anyway, the same way people buy other status symbols (rose-gold iPhones, etc). Ironically, most of those status-symbol cars will still have an autonomous mode.
Re: G.M. Invests $500M in Lyft
#260It is predicted that autonomous cars will reduce America's fleet of vehicles by something like 10-fold [1]. I think it will unfold something like this: FIRST, instead three cars for mom, dad and kid, the average family has one car that drops mom off to work, then dad, and then the teen off to school. SECOND, aforementioned car makes use of its down time to drive strangers around via Uber, Lyft, et cetera. The car's o…
I think it's crazy unrealistic that autonomous cars will be the majority in anything short of 20 to 30 years. The tech doesn't even exist yet. It's taken that long just to see ABS become standard equipment across 90% of vehicles. And this just completely ignores the ~5 to 7 year product cycle. There's no way that in just one or two generations of the Taurus we have a completely self-driving car capable of operating i…
I'm with you. I'd love for us to get there, but the predictions are highly highly optimistic imho. 15+ years for limited scenarios at best.