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G.M. Invests $500M in Lyft

nytimes.com

131–140 of 402 posts

Re: G.M. Invests $500M in Lyft

#131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So you're saying a stagnant company in a stagnant industry that almost died should remain stagnant and not try anything risky at all? It's not wild speculation for GM. They most likely have ways to work together. It's unlikely a completely passive investment.

GM has good reason to make risky decisions, since the taxpayers will likely be asked to support the company a second time if it runs into trouble. As a taxpayer, I would like them to be as safe and stagnant as possible, but I have no say in the matter. This is the moral hazard created by the bailout.

Ford was in bad shape in 2006.

Does anyone even remember the Ford of 2006? With their awful Focus when everyone was clamoring for the euro version? Or the Ford 500?

They didn't avoid a "bailout" because they were a strong company. Two years earlier they mortgaged everything (including the iconic blue-oval logo) while money was still cheap. It was pure luck. Not strength or some sort of moral superiority.

So by the time the crash rolled arounds and GM and Chrysler couldn't do the same, Ford had already secured over $25 billion in funding, with another $5 billion in government loans to refresh some factories to produce greener cars.

I'm not trying to argue GM or Chrysler did or didn't "deserve" a bailout. It's just a pet peeve of mine that there's this revisionist aura around Ford these days. They sold Jaguar and Land Rover to Tata for $2.3B, about half what they paid, and significantly less than they've made since. They sold Aston Martin for about $1B (well, that one was probably not a bad idea at least). They also sold Volvo for another $1.5B. They liquidated their stake in Mazda to the tune of about $500M dollars. Discounting the F-series, Ford easily had the worst portfolio, and were in trouble years before the others. They sold off several brands at a significant loss for some quick cash. Not all of those were smart moves in hindsight and they lost their shirts on most.

While Ford has taken government assistance, they've milked their amazing ability to avoid TARP by failing before everyone else for all it's worth. Will they be as lucky next time? What are they going to put into a $10B fire-sell next time? And will they be lucky enough next time to secure $25B in loans while the market money is still flowing? Will the government be handing out $5B loans to modernize factories?

I guess time will tell, but I felt like the conversation could use a little balance.

Re: G.M. Invests $500M in Lyft

#132
GM had and still has an impressive technical research center. Its just that establishment big companies dont get the respect that startup companies do. Nor can the employees win big like in a startup IPO.

General Electric is currently running a humorous TV commercial about this. A hipster engineers friends throw him a "new job party". But they go slackjaw when they discover he joinged GE instead of Facebook. GE has the oldest R&D lab in the country, started by Thomas Edison.

Re: G.M. Invests $500M in Lyft

#133
It's interesting to see how the aggressive tactics of Uber are affecting the automotive industry. Companies are partnering which would have never even talked to each other previously. I'm very curious to see how this whole thing plays out.

Re: G.M. Invests $500M in Lyft

#134

"G.M. will also work with Lyft to set up a series of short-term car rental hubs across the United States, places where people who do not own cars can pick up a vehicle and drive for Lyft to earn money. Daniel Ammann, president of G.M., will join Lyft’s board of directors." This reminds me very much of the taxi model; where the driver is going to start the shift in the hole and has to work their way out of it.

If the driver didn't pay 100% cash for their vehicle, then they're already starting in the hole, just in a different way.

Re: G.M. Invests $500M in Lyft

#135
post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The bailout was massively profitable for the government and every penny has been repaid. Investing in innovation is exactly what a company like GM should be doing and our tax dollars are in no way involved in this. Edit: didn't make money on GM http://www.reuters.com/article/us-autos-gm-treasury-idUSBREA... Made lots of money overall: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/20/business/us-signals-end-of...

> The bailout was massively profitable for the government and every penny has been repaid I don't really have a stance on the GM bailout, but your statement here is missing something important - every company that a government gives billions to will do disproportionately well in their industry in the short term and give solid returns. But the role of taxpayer money isn't to select winners. The free market is supposed…

The government didn't give money, they invested because the market wasn't in a position to do so when the industry needed it. The narrative that the company is only going to do good short-term because the government gave them a lot of money doesn't make sense when the government has since sold it's position in that company for a profit, meaning the market now viewed that company as a more favorable investment then they did when the government intervened.

> The free market is supposed to weed out the chaff.

The free market doesn't care about stability, but we as the people that deal with the market, should. An unconstrained free market will swing wildly, which is one of the ways it will identify the chaff to cull, or depending on how low the swing is, the not-quite-as-good wheat to cull. The US has long recognized the benefits of a steady economy though, so while there isn't as aggressive culling, allowing some mediocre companies to survive, the environment itself is more amenable to sustaining a population of people which is the whole point of the economy.

Re: G.M. Invests $500M in Lyft

#136
post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The bailout was massively profitable for the government and every penny has been repaid. Investing in innovation is exactly what a company like GM should be doing and our tax dollars are in no way involved in this. Edit: didn't make money on GM http://www.reuters.com/article/us-autos-gm-treasury-idUSBREA... Made lots of money overall: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/20/business/us-signals-end-of...

> The bailout was massively profitable for the government and every penny has been repaid I don't really have a stance on the GM bailout, but your statement here is missing something important - every company that a government gives billions to will do disproportionately well in their industry in the short term and give solid returns. But the role of taxpayer money isn't to select winners. The free market is supposed…

Whether or not the bailout was a good idea wasn't at issue. It's whether tax dollars are still tied up in the company or not and therefore whether the taxpayer has a right to judge the behavior of the company in that lens. At least that's how I read it.

Re: G.M. Invests $500M in Lyft

#137
My theory is that with the ever increasing reliability of cars, they aren't being replaced as often due to low utilization (sitting idle most of the day). Having a more highly utilized fleet of vehicles will mean they get replaced more often.

This isn't a big vehicle sales growth strategy, but it could be a way to preserve vehicle sales, while keeping a foot in the door of the future. They might even be able to get away with spending less to manufacture these cars, since people don't care as much about finish quality in something they don't own.

Also, the interiors of the vehicles would probably degrade faster than the mechanical and electrical systems, so GM could probably make a business in remanufacturing and certifying such vehicles for return to service, or putting them into cheaper tiers of service.

Essentially, that would be the partial transformation of GM into a large fleet management/maintenance company.

EDIT: wording

Re: G.M. Invests $500M in Lyft

#138

"G.M. will also work with Lyft to set up a series of short-term car rental hubs across the United States, places where people who do not own cars can pick up a vehicle and drive for Lyft to earn money. Daniel Ammann, president of G.M., will join Lyft’s board of directors." This reminds me very much of the taxi model; where the driver is going to start the shift in the hole and has to work their way out of it.

If the driver didn't pay 100% cash for their vehicle, then they're already starting in the hole, just in a different way.

Technically, if they had to spend $x thousands of dollars they are already in the hole.

Re: G.M. Invests $500M in Lyft

#139

GM had and still has an impressive technical research center. Its just that establishment big companies dont get the respect that startup companies do. Nor can the employees win big like in a startup IPO. General Electric is currently running a humorous TV commercial about this. A hipster engineers friends throw him a "new job party". But they go slackjaw when they discover he joinged GE instead of Facebook. GE has t…

Edison being the guy who ripped off Tesla?

Re: G.M. Invests $500M in Lyft

#140
It is predicted that autonomous cars will reduce America's fleet of vehicles by something like 10-fold [1]. I think it will unfold something like this:

FIRST, instead three cars for mom, dad and kid, the average family has one car that drops mom off to work, then dad, and then the teen off to school.

SECOND, aforementioned car makes use of its down time to drive strangers around via Uber, Lyft, et cetera. The car's owners collect a fee from Uber, Lyft et al.

THIRD, economies of scale and changes in perceptions towards the utility versus cost of owning cars causes people to stop buying them. Instead, they subscribe for access to a fleet–such as Uber or Tesla's. (Note: people already do this in cities like New York, where car ownership is relatively scarce.)

AND FINALLY, as distributed car ownership falls, retail locations for their maintenance go out of business. Barring massive public subsidy for car ownership, this creates a feedback loop that increases the cost of individual car ownership until it becomes a luxury.

1 will happen later than we expect. 2 will happen sooner, 3 much later and 4 drastically sooner. In fact, I think it will ultimately be 4, not 3, that drives a rapid, self-perpetuating dominance of self-driving cars within our lifetime.

[1] http://sustainablemobility.ei.columbia.edu/files/2012/12/Tra...

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