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The Refragmentation

paulgraham.com

361–370 of 461 posts

Re: The Refragmentation

#361
post #175

It's a very American take on fragmentation and cohesion. The idea of wars creating cohesion is only valid in big, powerful, victorious nations. In Germany, defeat resulted in the rejection of nationalism. If you don't live in a great and powerful nation, or if you don't think your nation is as great as advertised, you might not miss cohesion on national lines. Good thing PG is a realist: "we'd be better off thinking…

I understand that Germany is no small country (even if much smaller than the United States) and thus does not thereby have one single national mood.

However what is the general sentiment of the peoples there about where the German republic as a monolithic entity is headed, given the recent developments?

Are people generally optimistic or are there significant pockets of dissenting populaces who heavily disagree with the choices Chancellor Merkel has made, in recent times?

Re: The Refragmentation

#362
>The ultimate way to get market price is to work for yourself, by starting your own company.

see... this (and the implication that people working at large companies get less than market rate) doesn't ring true for me. The real "free markets" of labor, like craigslist and the rent-a-coder marketplaces pay about 20% of what you get if you go through a recruiter who has "a relationship" with a large company... for doing essentially the same thing, and from what I've seen, contractor pay (after the middleman takes his cut) is about the same as base pay (for the same work) at a large company.

Now, when I started contracting in the early aughts, base pay was basically the same as total comp, and so I subtracted the payroll taxes and health insurance and could pretty much directly compare contract vs salary wages. In the early aughts, it was pretty unusual for individual contributors to get big bonuses or even stock refreshes (or that was my perception; I was considerably less senor at the time.)

But, from what I've seen, if you are full-time at a big company here, you get a pretty significant bump now, in terms of bonuses and stock.

My point here is just that my experience has been that when I'm selling my labor, the further I move away from "the free market for labor" and the closer I get to a system of rank and privilege as pg describes 20th century corporations, the more I get paid.

Re: The Refragmentation

#363
post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Startups either go Facebook or go bust, they're not created to stay stable at small scale. Nonsense. Plenty of companies start out as small companies and suddenly find themselves on the upwards slope of a hockey stick, others start out as aiming for that hockey stick and end up being 'just' sustainable businesses. This whole start-up naming thing denies 125 years of objective reality. You can't start a scalable com…

But wait, some people start a pizza place or a grocery store or something similar. Those kinds of businesses are definitely new businesses, and people who start these kinds of businesses is what was traditionally meant by the word "entrepreneur". But startups are qualitatively different - they are usually started with the express (and usually only ) purpose of growing very large, very fast. Call them startups or not,…

"But startups are qualitatively different - they are usually started with the express (and usually only) purpose of growing very large, very fast"

Usually a startup is understood to be any venture in search of a sustainable businessmodel.

To grow very large, very fast requires only lots of capital. A lot of companies have confused a large capital investment with a sustainable businessmodel and gone bust soon.

Re: The Refragmentation

#364
post #13

If this piqued your interest; or left you wondering, I'd recommend reading Piketty's "Capital in the twenty-first Century". As Graham's piece concludes; if we don't do something , we'll get into trouble. - « Terrific work causes us to think of additional questions. »

Generally Piketty is dealing with inequality produced by differences in income from capital, not labour. His reason for focusing on capital income is explained in depth, especially in chapter 7. In short, the distribution of capital ownership is always more concentrated than the distribution of income from labor, so we should be worrying about wealth inequality and inheritance. This is why Piketty proposes a wealth tax, not an income tax of the kind that pg says will 'be fighting a losing battle against increasing variation in productivity.'

Re: The Refragmentation

#366

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cars specifically excluded by the poster to whom I replied. But the sibling comment to yours made exactly the same point about housing. Should I have highlighted the quote from the grandparent post better?

Probably that would have been good. FWIW, I think it's preferable to never need financing ever, and it really ought to be only used for things that are investments (real estate, education, expenses that relate to accessing or building new work/business) and never for pure consumption. So, I get your overall point. The other thing to recognize is that being poor is MORE EXPENSIVE than being rich. This fundamental fact…

I think financing - provided you can obtain it at a good rate, which of course you can't if you're poor - makes sense whenever the benefits of a purchase are expected to be spread out over time.

Re: The Refragmentation

#367
post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a European, I doubt that unless you are thinking balkan scale wars on the edges of Europe in countries that are not normally considered Europe as the term in commonly used or possibly Turkey actually get of its ass and do something about ISIS. It is true that there are a lot of rivalries, but nobody wants another world war. We are all fat, rich (relatively compared to 1939) and entertained, but more importantly th…

Nobody wanted a world war in 1914 either. History is littered with the outcomes of unforeseen nonlinearities. Northern Ireland is more peaceful than it has been in decades It is now, but why do you assume that that is a one-way street? Northern Ireland was also relatively peaceful from 1922 to 1968, when Catholics became more aggressive about their demands for civil rights and violent conflict broke out and then esca…

Nobody wanted a world war, but lots of people wanted a war between Germany and Russia, which would drag France into it. They just assumed it could be over quickly and they would be the victors (and it came very close to being true for the Germans. Had the Miracle on the Marn not happened or had Russia mobilized slower the Germans might really have out flanked the French army).

Hitler assumed he would be able to get away with taking Poland, as he had gotten away with taking pretty much anything up to that point and the Germans were extremely pissed over the Versey treaty, so much so that they were willing to go along with it.

Today we know what happens if we go to war with each other, and if anybody in Germany doubts it, they can go see the huge hill outside Berlin (or inside it) were they dumped all the broken bricks that couldn't be reused when the war ended and they had to rebuild the city.

So yeah, that is why I don't believe there will be another war in Europe proper again at least for the next 100 years.

Re: The Refragmentation

#368
post #85
post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the case of minimum wage, they would indeed be forced to pay more, rendering the need for welfare to those same people unnecessary, thus shifting the cost from the state/government to the employer. That is in effect wealth distribution, which again closes the big income inequality. (That's the intended effect anyway.)

beagle3 argued that in a world without welfare, Wal-Mart would have to pay more or their employees would be unable to work due to lack of basic necessities. I was only arguing against that assertion.

I was merely paraphrasing my understanding of sanders' argument.

But the argument has merit if the wage is not livable. The two issues the make this an issue (or a nonissue) is what is a minimum livable wage, and whether or not it is the governments role to enforce that or not. (No idea about the first, I think Yes about the second)

Re: The Refragmentation

#369
post #362

>The ultimate way to get market price is to work for yourself, by starting your own company. see... this (and the implication that people working at large companies get less than market rate) doesn't ring true for me. The real "free markets" of labor, like craigslist and the rent-a-coder marketplaces pay about 20% of what you get if you go through a recruiter who has "a relationship" with a large company... for doing…

True, but PG doesn't consider selling your time as starting a company, you're not talking about the same thing

Re: The Refragmentation

#370
Wow!

He's seems a little self-aware of his own wealth, and what exactly he's given society?

Sorry--I read this bloated, post holiday, thesis, and was not impressed. Why take so long to say a few thoughts? The're just thoughts?

Yes, we rebelled, or "fragmented".

Yes, unions are not perfect. (Good luck getting rid of certain unions, like any Union San Franciso. I have seen entire buildings go dim when the painter's Union went on strike.)

If I were a psychologist looking for a theme to his writing it would be basically two thing; He is one percenter--trying to rationalize his own wealth? He trying to look for flaws in society that makes it o.k. to be very wealthy?

Paul--take a basic writing class. You need to funnel your thoughts. You could take out 3/4 of your sentences, and your readers would have a better grasp of what you are trying to convey.

Paul--certain unions will never go away.

Paul--this is the downside to being very wealthy. You are living the "dream"?

I wasen't going to read that essay another time. I think we are about to see a lot of tech billionaries wondering if they ultimately ruined the party, or helped it?

Let's get real. In the U.S.--a lot of us didn't have to worry about missing out on the party. All we had to do was try. Now--it's not as easy.

Do I fear the future. Yes--I do. Do I think tech will make things better. No--I don't. That is unless we get serious about overpopulation.

I have a question to any developer here. We are constantly trying to make tech easier. We all know, and like DRY. What's going to happen in a few years when our skills are no longer needed? Even local politians are writing our obituaries. Willie Brown said, 'I'm wondering what we are going to do with all the future homeless tech people.' It's not an exact quote, but it was said in retort to a complaint about all the homeless we step over every day.

My hope is we don't turn into Mexico. A country where someone like Paul couldn't take a leisurely walk in the park?

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