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The Refragmentation

paulgraham.com

11–20 of 461 posts

Re: The Refragmentation

#11

A tldr on this one would actually be appreciated. :-)

A (mostly) golden age in the US was caused by conditions that forced the population to work together.

The conditions have disappeared, so the economic and social order is unraveling.

Let’s acknowledge the issue and let that acknowledgment guide our policy decisions. We want this golden age back(?).

Re: The Refragmentation

#12

He takes the easy way out on the war theory: It would be awful, of course, so let's not think about it. But think about it. Would historical WWII be possible in today's United States? Introduce the draft and send current US population off to die in Europe? I think you'd see intense levels of political resistance, draft dodging and desertion in the field. Fragmentation means you probably can't unite the whole country…

Historically, prior to pearl harbor you also would not get the United States population to back you for a war. The political resistance would have likely been armed revolt, the general population was strongly against war.

However, after pearl harbor, the average citizen took a blow and was more than willing to fight. They wanted to protect their homes, and they felt if they didn't the Japanese would bring the fight to them.

Re: The Refragmentation

#13
If this piqued your interest; or left you wondering, I'd recommend reading Piketty's "Capital in the twenty-first Century".

As Graham's piece concludes; if we don't do something, we'll get into trouble.

- « Terrific work causes us to think of additional questions. »

Re: The Refragmentation

#15
David Chapman wrote an interesting set of posts about fragmentation from the perspective of culture, counterculture, and subcultures.

http://meaningness.com/meaningness-history

That's the intro for a series of posts listed at the bottom.

Here's a "gigantic chart that explains everything": http://meaningness.com/modes-chart

Here's "systems of meaning all in flames": http://meaningness.com/systems-crisis-breakdown

Re: The Refragmentation

#16
> The creative class flocks to a handful of happy cities, abandoning the rest

At least this trend is one that individual programmers can choose to resist, assuming we don't have to move to Silicon Valley or Seattle to get good jobs. I, for one, don't have any desire to leave my home town of Wichita, Kansas.

Re: The Refragmentation

#17
post #3

"Obviously the spread of computing power was a precondition for the rise of startups." If you live in San Francisco (or are visiting) you can visit the USS Pampanito - a retired WWII submarine.[1] One thing I think you will notice is the manufacturers plaques attached to every little piece of equipment in the submarine ... every one of them the plaque of some tiny little supplier that you have never heard of . Some l…

Yes.

This concept of small manufacturers that excel in their niche has been the oldest business model in history.

Especially in Japan and Germany many companies have existed for over a millenium like that, and even today half of the made profits are by small, (50 people or less) companies that are hidden champions.

You probably never heard of http://www.walterwerk.com/en/, but they’re the world’s leader in machines that produce ice cream cones.

As you said, it’s not just since computers that these companies existed – they’ve existed for centuries.

But what is different this time is that for the first time investors are trying to invest in these small businesses, and try to make a huge profit out of them.

Re: The Refragmentation

#18
post #3

"Obviously the spread of computing power was a precondition for the rise of startups." If you live in San Francisco (or are visiting) you can visit the USS Pampanito - a retired WWII submarine.[1] One thing I think you will notice is the manufacturers plaques attached to every little piece of equipment in the submarine ... every one of them the plaque of some tiny little supplier that you have never heard of . Some l…

Good observation. Paul's definition of "startup" seems to be "company that grows explosively to a massive size/valuation in a short number of years". The sort of businesses you cite seem to fall under the "small business" moniker, and would probably be one of the mouse-sized companies he referenced in the essay as one that tried to avoid trampling by the elephants of BigCo.

Re: The Refragmentation

#19
Very interesting, particularly the idea that the rise in inequality is a ntural consequence of fairness. I wonder, then, if those opposing the rise in inequality aren't like King Canute ordering the tide to recede.

Re: The Refragmentation

#20
It seems to me that much of the fragmentation that the post discusses is just economic specialization, which we should encourage (see Adam Smith). I do think it is reasonable that one limits the 'fragmentation', i.e. that one puts negative feedback in the economic loop in the form of a progressive tax. Negative feedback is used everywhere in electronics and even sometimes by the Fed to control interest rates. Even so, many economists [1] throw up their hand and say macro economics is too tough and we just can't predict how it will work. This seems like nonsense to my engineer brain; I think that a sharply progressive tax with an accompanying universal basic income is the right way to encourage economic diversity.

[1] I get my impression of economists from EconTalk by Russ Roberts.

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