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Microsoft bids $44.6 billion for Yahoo

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Re: Microsoft bids $44.6 billion for Yahoo

#61

Post by Xichekolas »

danielha wrote: post #24
joeguilmette wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

it's rare to see such simple, fundamental and spot on analysis in the tech world. microsoft's bid on yahoo is a perfect illustration of why microsoft is doomed to failure. how many startups could they fund with $45 billion? 100? 200? 1000? why exactly do they want to be at the helm of a slowly dying web portal left over from the first dot com boom? i remember someone talking of microsoft and relating their situation…

>> how many startups could they fund with $45 billion? 100? 200? 1000? why exactly do they want to be at the helm of a slowly dying web portal left over from the first dot com boom? I understand the "startups are king" mentality around here, but come on . Regardless of their quarterly performance, Yahoo! is one of the biggest brand names on the web. Microsoft won't establish a bigger web presence by "funding startups…

Microsoft buying Yahoo is like Microsoft(1) buying Microsoft(2). Both companies are huge, with dying net brands, and both are being cut to pieces by Google (and probably soon enough Facebook). I don't see the great synergy, and they definitely not paying that for a great product pipeline. My only guess is they want the search/ad system. That seems to be the only thing that makes Microsoft(2) != Yahoo.

Re: Microsoft bids $44.6 billion for Yahoo

#62

Post by Xichekolas »

food79 wrote: post #44
some wrote: post #33

How could an offer, that is 62% higher then the price at the stockmarket be refused?

Stock prices are weird. The current value is where half the people think the price is too low and half the people think the price is too high. Of course everyone who still has Yahoo stock think that the price is too low--because everyone who thinks the price is too high has already sold their shares. So everyone who still holds any given stock thinks that the market price is too low.

A simpler explanation is that everyone holding a stock wants it to go up so they can profit. When it goes up to a point where they don't think it's too low, they sell it, and hence no longer own it. So everyone that owns a stock thinks it's too low.

Re: Microsoft bids $44.6 billion for Yahoo

#63

Post by Xichekolas »

wallflower wrote: post #21

It's easy to cheer on Google, as Google as they systematically takes on established vertical markets (to sell advertising) and do fairly well in some of them. Why not root for the underdog, Yahoo + MSFT?

Because it's fun to cheer on the underdog if the underdog is better and the established players are just bumbling idiots holding down the underdog via cheating and uncompetitive strategies.

Trying to claim that YHOO/MSFT is (technically) better than Google and that Google is just a bumbling idiot trying to hold down YHOO/MSFT via cheating and uncompetitive practices is a bit of a stretch, even for the seriously deluded among us.

Re: Microsoft bids $44.6 billion for Yahoo

#64

Post by Xichekolas »

carpo wrote: post #59
tlrobinson wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The stock market continues to baffle me. Microsoft is offering $31 per share of Yahoo. YHOO is now trading at nearly $31, up from $19 at the close yesterday. Why would anyone pay $31 for a share of Yahoo right now? There are two possible outcomes: 1) the deal goes through, and you get your $31 back either in Microsoft stock or cash. No net gain. 2) The deal doesn't go through and YHOO drops back to around $19, losing…

There's also the possibility another company will outbid the original offer.

While technically possible, you'd be hard pressed to find many companies that could put up that kind of money, even fewer actually in the industry (no Wal-mart doesn't count), and even fewer that could pull off the financing in today's debt market.

Microsoft is sorta uniquely positioned to make this offer at this moment.

Re: Microsoft bids $44.6 billion for Yahoo

#65

Post by Xichekolas »

dean wrote: post #49
tlrobinson wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The stock market continues to baffle me. Microsoft is offering $31 per share of Yahoo. YHOO is now trading at nearly $31, up from $19 at the close yesterday. Why would anyone pay $31 for a share of Yahoo right now? There are two possible outcomes: 1) the deal goes through, and you get your $31 back either in Microsoft stock or cash. No net gain. 2) The deal doesn't go through and YHOO drops back to around $19, losing…

This always happens with buyout offers, the buyee's stock price shoots up close to the amount of the buyout offer, but never reaches it. It generally stops a couple dollars short of the buyout price. At this moment, Yahoo is trading at $28.25, still low enough to make a sure-thing couple of bucks per share. It's a gamble though. If the deal falls through, or gets blocked by the government, the buyee's stock price dro…

Or lower. Dashed hopes can be (temporarily) worse than no hope to begin with.

Re: Microsoft bids $44.6 billion for Yahoo

#66

Post by abstractbill »

axod wrote: post #17
ardit33 wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

naw, they are the 1600lb gorrilla now. No matter how incompetent they are, they have enough momentum and cash to just smash thru obstacles (either buy or try to fail other startups).

Reminds me of myself and my brother playing monopoly as kids. He suggested he start with all the property, and I start with all the money. I was young... 6 maybe, so I thought wow yeah heh I'll take all the money. Sure, MS have cash from their dying desktop, but they still can't build web apps, or compete with google online. I'd say yahoo are almost as bad.

He suggested he start with all the property, and I start with all the money.

I remember being pretty damn pleased with myself when you agreed to that ;-)

Re: Microsoft bids $44.6 billion for Yahoo

#69

Post by nradov »

bayareaguy wrote: post #42
agotterer wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Think they will move everything to MS servers and re-write in .net?! heh

Not if they actually care about ROI. They got no benefit other than PR when they moved Hotmail to windows.

Actually they got a huge benefit. They had internal users doing a high-volume stress test on Windows and associated middleware, so a lot of bugs got found and fixed. The products now are noticeably more reliable.

Re: Microsoft bids $44.6 billion for Yahoo

#70

Post by anewaccountname »

food79 wrote: post #44
some wrote: post #33

How could an offer, that is 62% higher then the price at the stockmarket be refused?

Stock prices are weird. The current value is where half the people think the price is too low and half the people think the price is too high. Of course everyone who still has Yahoo stock think that the price is too low--because everyone who thinks the price is too high has already sold their shares. So everyone who still holds any given stock thinks that the market price is too low.

>So everyone who still holds any given stock thinks that the market price is too low.

Only true in a limited sense. For instance, a majority holding the stock up until today might have just thought that the market price was way too high for how the company is performing, but that the presence of one or more misguided, irrational, drowing-in-money, potential aquirers out there meant that there was a large chance they might get a large upside off one of the fools--turns out they were right =).

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