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SpaceX launch webcast: Orbcomm-2 Mission [video]

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Re: SpaceX launch webcast: Orbcomm-2 Mission [video]

#311
post #216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I understand correctly, even if they can only reuse the rocket motors, that would still be most of the 75% figure.

Aside from the cost savings, the other goal of reusing boosters is to reduce the time between launches. The challenge for SpaceX is to inspect the booster, integrate a new second stage & payload, and relaunch in a few weeks. With a few years of work, it should be almost like a cargo jet turnaround. ULA's Vulcan plan is to parachute the engines and pumps back, catch the rope with a helicopter, inspect and reattach to…

The catching with a helicopter part is complex, but not time-consuming - either it works or it doesn't. The rest is probably if anything easier - I'd imagine SpaceX will have to tear down the booster entirely for inspection, at least for the first few hundred. These things are (or will be) built to be disassembled and reassembled, attaching engines and pumps to a new tank is not going to be a long and complex process.

Re: SpaceX launch webcast: Orbcomm-2 Mission [video]

#312
post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Welcome to the club"? Wow, that was classless. What Blue Origin did was impressive, but it was utterly trivial compared to what just happened with this flight.

Really, 'classless'? The achievement is landing a space-capable booster vertically, after an actual mission above 100km, which can then be reused. And, Blue Origin managed that first, no two ways about it. I think it's probably pretty classless to imply that what Blue Origin managed to do was 'trivial'. Just because SpaceX is the current hacker's favourite, doesn't mean you have to downplay everyone else. I think Mus…

BO was not trivial, just as grasshopper was not trivial years before, but there is a significant difference. Going up into space can be done in a balloon or plane, but not orbit. The difference is qualitative.

F9 will significantly reduce the cost of putting things in orbit.

NS will reduce the cost of space tourism (momentary views of earth), but would require new engines and a different design and landing style to put things into space, something like F9.

Hence implying they are the same is a bit tacky and inappropriate as it will mislead lots of people.

Re: SpaceX launch webcast: Orbcomm-2 Mission [video]

#313
post #249

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think it is worship so much as it is respect. While its true engineers did the work there is ample evidence that the exact same team can have very different outcomes with different leadership. This is shown again and again in sports where one year the team does poorly, but a new coach or manager can get that same group of men into the playoffs. Same guys, different leader. That is true of engineers as well, I…

Imagine this scenario. Musk is fired from his leadership role and is moved to the mail department, where he sorts mail. He is the best mail sorter in the group. Does he deserve the same respect? His influence is given by the position as leader, not any individual quality he may have. It doesn't take a great imagination to think of other possible organizational forms that don't disproportionately give one person influ…

Lets say we had taken 1000 random people off the street in 2002 and put them in charge of a new space launch company with equal funding to SpaceX. How many of them do you think are likely to have achieved the same success SpaceX has?

To put it another way, if Elon Musk hadn't founded SpaceX in 2002, how many of the engineers currently working there would right now be celebrating working at a company having successfully recovered a first stage from an orbital rocket?

Let's try looking at it from a third angle. Lets suppose a random employee other then Elon Musk had been unable to join the company during it's history and had to be replaced with another job candidate. What are the chances such a substitution would have prevented SpaceX from achieving a stage recovery?

Finally, I'll address your proposed scenario directly. How likely is it that having the wrong mail man in that position would lead to the failure of the company? In contrast, what are the chances that having the wrong CEO might lead to the failure of the company? I can imagine Elon Musk might make a pretty decent mailman. But if we took the best mailman in the country and put him or her in charge of SpaceX, do you think that would be likely to have a positive or negative effect on the prospects of the company?

Re: SpaceX launch webcast: Orbcomm-2 Mission [video]

#314

This is so epically awesome that I feel like we orbited a human for the first time or something. Bezos whining aside, its a huge deal to return 9 engines from a workhorse booster back to the pad to be refurbed and re-used. If the $5M each costs are correct, that is $45M in cost savings right there. But perhaps more importantly its the first "first" for SpaceX which has not been done by NASA or anyone else. Launch a p…

The whole Bezos/BlueOrigin thing is kind of sad. They are nowhere near a "club" with SpaceX. One of the huge differences (and there are many) is that Falcon 9 was doing 6,000 Km/hr (~4,000 mi/hr) when the first stage separated and turned around to come back. The path was not straight up, but rather one to launch the second stage into orbital flight (which reached 26,000 Km/hr and 600 miles of altitude). Then Falcon9'…

I am of the opinion that I don't give a damn, what both are doing is incredibly complex and from a nerd/geek perspective very cool. If there is some rivalry then so be it, but damn they are both working to make space accessible and for that we need to cheer them both on.

Re: SpaceX launch webcast: Orbcomm-2 Mission [video]

#315
post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not mine, but irresistible. Presumably the sting of the term is now entirely gone. Nothing succeeds like success.

Personally, the biggest laugh I had on /r/spacex was when the CRS-7 failure study came up and they had to remove the word "strut" from the list of terms that caused comments to be automatically put to moderation - it was banned because of all the KSP jokes, but suddenly the rocket really found itself in need of moar struts.

Not more, just better.

Re: SpaceX launch webcast: Orbcomm-2 Mission [video]

#316
post #248

In a single moment, SpaceX earns itself more than $50 million dollars, right? That's a big bonus for everyone who made this possible and some well earned time off, and then back to work changing the world! So from what I've read, the returns are immense; the amount of learning they can do from examining their own rocket is the real initial treasure. Their rocket design should advance considerably based on this trove,…

They have competition - elsewhere in the thread it sounds like ULA are planning to start reusing engines. They'll get a few years of pseudo-monopoly rent while they have the monopoly on reusing launchers, but ultimately rocket launches are going to be commoditised, just like every innovation.

Re: SpaceX launch webcast: Orbcomm-2 Mission [video]

#317

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I for one think that giving credit where credit is due is an important thing.

Getting off this rock is probably the only thing that matters. Credit is irrelevant when Earth is no longer habitable and we never left.

People who compete want to get recognition for their accomplishments. "Getting off this rock" has so far been led closer to becoming true by cold hard competition. So sorry bud, people will always want credit for their success whether you like it or not. And hey, who said we won't get off this rock during the process of all that?

Re: SpaceX launch webcast: Orbcomm-2 Mission [video]

#319

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks. I've heard the story but I haven't seen evidence of it, it smells too much like a marketing story (we're young and exciting, those old people are boring and stuck in the past), and it seems very unlikely: I don't buy that the 'old' companies wouldn't want to reduce their costs by 75%, greatly increasing demand for their very expensive service, greatly increasing their bottom line - even in a cost-plus arrange…

So why didn't the old companies do it? They have the same access to technical and financial expertise as anyone, and deep pockets.

"Cost-plus" funding means they didn't have any incentive to reduce costs. The thing that got them money was keeping politicians onside, so it was more important to e.g. provide jobs in relevant states.

Re: SpaceX launch webcast: Orbcomm-2 Mission [video]

#320

What changed that made this cost-effective? 1) The companies pursuing this, SpaceX, Blue Orgin, etc., can't be the first to think of it. If the first stage accounts for 75% of the cost of a launch, as one article I read says, I'm sure many have considered, going back to the first launches decades ago, how to reuse it. 2) The technology to land rockets vertically has existed for a long time, going back to the lunar la…

Expendable rocket design is a local maxima which reduces fitness for reuse. This is because the typical, and traditional, optimizations all work against reuse. Reducing the number of engines on the first stage lowers cost and increases reliability and performance. And makes VTVL operations nearly impossible without adding additional engines (ballooning complexity, increasing stage cost, and reducing performance in an already extremely performance constrained system). Additionally, the traditional method for incrementally improving overall launch vehicle performance is to change the upper stage. By switching to a higher performance LOX/LH2 stage you can increase payload without redesigning the first stage, and without increasing gross liftoff weight. Even with the Falcon 9 they changed the second stage to improve performance, but they avoided the pitfall of making it much more advanced. On paper advanced upper stages seems like smart thing to do. You concentrate your engineering efforts on one of the smaller pieces of the rocket, and you improve performance without necessitating a full redesign. But this results in a vehicle with most of the cost in the upper stage.

This development trajectory leads to a capable launcher, but one that is wholly unsuited for reuse. Reusing the first stage is now extraordinarily difficult, extraordinarily costly, and has little advantage (since most of the cost is in the upper stage anyway). You see the effects of this design pattern in most expendable launchers. Both the Delta IV and Atlas V boosters use a single engine in the first stage, and both use an RL-10 LOX/LH2 engine for the 2nd stage, an extremely expensive engine on its own, let alone when it's integrated into a high-tech stage (such as Lockheed-Martin's legendary Centaur line). The Ariane 5 has gone through 5 different generations of upper stage advancements, and it too has only one engine on its first stage. India's GSLV uses a solid first stage with hypergolic boosters and second stage and a LOX/LH2 3rd stage.

Meanwhile, there hasn't been much pressure on rocket designers to be hard headedly pragmatic. Often times winning government contracts or even private investment meant convincing people of your beyond state-of-the-art designs that would leap frog the competition, rather than rely on common sense engineering and iterative advancements. That's how we got the Shuttle (which was supposed to be about 2 orders of magnitude cheaper to operate than it turned out to be), the X-33/VentureStar program, the NASP/X-30 program, Rotary Rocket, Pioneer Rocketplane, and all the other programs and startups that were cancelled when they ran out of money, ran into engineering problems, or both.

The sensible thing is to try reusing some of the rocket and make the most of that from a cost perspective. Something that saw a bit of attention with the old DC-X program over two decades ago. One problem with that program was that it envisioned a new launcher that was mostly an SSTO, and aimed at building up from small scale rather than building toward reuse from full orbital scale.

The genius of Musk and SpaceX has several facets:

1) Begin with expendable, but design with reuse in mind (high throttle ability in the first stage, most of the costs in the first stage), and work towards there iteratively. That way you get experience in a lot of the most important bits of the business: building orbital rockets, building rocket engines, building spacecraft, launching rockets. And you get cold, hard cash flowing into the company from launches. Cash that keeps the company in business, and finances further innovations.

2) Build reuse not as a different vehicle but as a "feature flag" on a common design. The difference between a reusable launcher and an expendable launcher for SpaceX is a mode selection, not an architectural difference. This means that you get operational testing of the vast majority of your flight hardware for your vehicle with every single expendable launch. This is a well-known risk mitigation strategy in software and other industries, and here it works marvelously. Prior to today's launch SpaceX had 14 previous launches of substantially the same hardware (counting only the v1.1 version).

3) Opportunistically use the first stage after stage sep. for experimenting with boost back and landing. From the very first v1.1 launch SpaceX has been aggressive at testing aspects of the landing and reuse flight mode, equipping stages with landing gear in many cases. This is a fantastic cost saving method as it takes what would be trash and transforms it into test vehicles being operated in typical flight profiles. This takes advantage of hundreds of millions of dollars of flight hardware to conduct an R&D test program on the cheap.

Combine all of that together and you end up with a way to get from A (expendable rockets) to B (reusable rockets) without having to take on a ton of risk, without having to spend insane amounts of money, without having to design and operationally prove a brand new reusable vehicle design, and to build a revenue earning and self-sustaining business before being able to finish reusable vehicle development. It took a significant amount of foresight and savvy to be able to see that route and to execute on it.

And yes, knowing what we know now it would have been easy to do this sort of stuff in the past, more so if we wanted to just throw money at it. But it wasn't obvious until being proven.

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