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The $10,000-a-year college education has arrived (1981)

nytimes.com

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Re: The $10,000-a-year college education has arrived (1981)

#141

Post by CognitiveLens »

zxcvvcxz wrote: post #134
crabasa wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1. Infinite supply of loans. Dept of Ed isn't even allowed to deny a loan to a person. 2. Culture since the Clinton era of "everyone should go to college". Massive cultural stigma for those who don't. 3. Colleges continue to justify costs based on lifetime earnings delta of people with degrees. Sadly, this data is backwards-looking and not indicative of what today's students should expect. The most heinous thing thou…

> 3. Colleges continue to justify costs based on lifetime earnings delta of people with degrees. Sadly, this data is backwards-looking and not indicative of what today's students should expect. Not only that, it's downright bullshit. I remember seeing once a comparison. Non college degree average salary: let's say it's 30K. College degree: 40K. Instead of college, take those 4 years and at least $50K of educational e…

Actual data from the US: https://cew.georgetown.edu/cew-reports/goodjobsareback/

of the 2.9 million "good jobs" (i.e. full-time, high paying with benefits) created since 2010, 2.8 million have gone to people with college degrees.

It fun to say that you don't need a degree to get a good, high-paying, satisfying job, and there are plenty of anecdotal examples to reference, but the data clearly indicate that the odds are not in your favor if you choose an alternative path, at least in the US. I suspect that software engineering and some related industries might be a little more degree-agnostic, but that's far from the norm.

Re: The $10,000-a-year college education has arrived (1981)

#142

Post by blisterpeanuts »

crabasa wrote: post #78
blisterpeanuts wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've edited it down to $25K. I was thinking of 25 year estimates I've read, rather than 10 year estimates. In-state public 4-year tuition averages $9K or so right now, plus housing. In ten years this number will likely double or at least grow 150%, if the 5% growth rate continues to hold. If the Fed's monetary policy continues to push up interest rates, though, who knows how much more it might increase during that ti…

Why did you edit it? The total cost of attending the University of Washington today is $27k. Virginia is $29k. Texas is $26k. If you're child is going to college in 6 years, $40-50k sounds completely possible.

Cyber Dildonics asked me to back up the $50K figure, and I realized I could not. The current state university tuition rates, from several sources, range from $8K to $14K.

$29K is a sobering number - and thus, $50K in 8 years is quite plausible.

Let's hope something breaks soon, or it's going to be out of reach of all but the moneyed classes and those willing to indenture themselves to 20 years of debt.

Re: The $10,000-a-year college education has arrived (1981)

#143

Post by fancyketchup »

neil1 wrote: post #119
fancyketchup wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wait, really? The incremental lifetime earning from a Bachelor's degree is something like 0.5 to 1.5 million dollars[1]. The cost of attending college could double at least once before the ROI goes negative. [1] https://cew.georgetown.edu/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/colleg...

You're forgetting about opportunity cost and the salary plus job advancement that you could achieve in the time you are in college

The page I cited actually breaks down lifetime earnings by age (a.k.a. "annual income"). It's true that non-college graduates get an earlier start on savings, but the overall trend is that their annual income starts to decline as they get closer to retirement age (they peak in their mid to late 40's).

You have to assume totally unrealistic investment gains in the first four years to make up for the $500k less total income.

Re: The $10,000-a-year college education has arrived (1981)

#144

Post by [deleted] »

crabasa wrote: post #10
cassieramen wrote: post #5

This article hints at schools inability to justify their ever increasing prices. Why is tuition continuing to rise so much faster than inflation? Is this simple supply and demand? Government backed loans create infinite supply to anyone who wants them? How can not for profit schools justify gauging their students?

1. Infinite supply of loans. Dept of Ed isn't even allowed to deny a loan to a person. 2. Culture since the Clinton era of "everyone should go to college". Massive cultural stigma for those who don't. 3. Colleges continue to justify costs based on lifetime earnings delta of people with degrees. Sadly, this data is backwards-looking and not indicative of what today's students should expect. The most heinous thing thou…

[deleted]

Re: The $10,000-a-year college education has arrived (1981)

#145

Post by dsfyu404ed »

at-fates-hands wrote: post #99
crabasa wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a terrible argument that I've never heard an actual policy-maker or politician make. Besides, unsecured debts are all around us, credit cards being the most common.

I guess this is the lesson: pay for your college with credit cards and avoid student loans. One can be discharged with bankruptcy, the latter cannot.

Don't forget that the intent to declare bankruptcy makes it fraud... but intent is hard to prove if you don't tell the internet about it.

Re: The $10,000-a-year college education has arrived (1981)

#146

Post by fancyketchup »

crabasa wrote: post #120
fancyketchup wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wait, really? The incremental lifetime earning from a Bachelor's degree is something like 0.5 to 1.5 million dollars[1]. The cost of attending college could double at least once before the ROI goes negative. [1] https://cew.georgetown.edu/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/colleg...

Here's a study that puts it closer to $500 for women and $800k for men: https://news.ku.edu/2015/06/19/ku-study-gives-more-accurate-... But these studies are all flawed because they are based on historical data when 4-year degrees were scarcer. In an era when many graduates can't get a job or end up with one that does not require a degree (i.e. barista) it's obvious that their ROI prospects are grim.

Ok, that's fine. It's still within the range I mentioned above. But, I'll just note for the record that you rounded $587k down to $500k, and $840k down to $800k.

> But these studies are all flawed because they are based on historical data when 4-year degrees were scarcer. In an era when many graduates can't get a job or end up with one that does not require a degree (i.e. barista) it's obvious that their ROI prospects are grim.

I don't think that's at all obvious. We are rapidly approaching the moment [1] when over half of the U.S. population has some sort of college degree, and already 2/3rds have at least "some college" education.

Applying to a front-line retail job with a Bachelor's degree no longer marks you as desperate and over-qualified. You are assuming that an employer will hire a person with only a high school diploma when she can just as easily hire a person with an associate's or bachelor's for the same wage. That will put downward pressure on wages for those without a college degree.

It may very well be the case that sending "everyone" to college does nothing more than depress the wages of those with only a high school education. However, that is not an argument against the positive ROI of college. Spending $100k to avoid $200k in lost wages is still a positive return.

Finding a job with a B.A. or B.Sc. may be difficult, but finding a job with only a high school diploma is even more so.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Educational_attainment_in_the_...

Re: The $10,000-a-year college education has arrived (1981)

#147

Post by dredmorbius »

morgante wrote: post #129
jenshoop wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Spot on. There's also been an increasing competitive push between universities to deliver "country club-esque" experiences to students, which further drives up cost. (Separately, let's not forget about the chaos of the educational publishing industry and the insane price points they command for modestly updated editions each year.) But I think items 1 and 2 above -- and a lack of education about what loans are and th…

> so few know that they're expected to repay loans What? Literally every student I talk to knows full well that loans are meant to be repaid.

Lots of loans are "meant" to be repaid (that's a literal, not a scare quote).

But if it turns out that it cannot be, virtually all are dischargable in bankruptcy.

Student loans are a very, very rare exception. Also a rather recent one.

Re: The $10,000-a-year college education has arrived (1981)

#148

Post by gabemart »

roymurdock wrote: post #100
abecode wrote: post #93

I play devil's advocate with a Cuban friend sometimes: an expensive education is better than a free one because it shows that our culture highly values knowledge, at least in terms of money. When education is free or cheap, it is devalued, at least in terms of money. It's a bit of a tongue-in-cheek argument but I think that it's good that people highly value education and it would be even better if the tuition increa…

Students in the UK pay £9k (~$13.5k) per year out of pocket for the 3 year university system. They were paying just £3K (~$4.5k) until 2012. University was free in the UK until 1998. Many universities in Germany still remain free. Is this because the British or German society values education less? No, it's because Europeans pay more taxes on average, and their governments use this to subsidize the sticker price of t…

> Students in the UK pay £9k (~$13.5k) per year out of pocket for the 3 year university system.

Scottish students studying in Scotland ordinarily pay no fees to attend university, provided they are studying for their first undergraduate degree.

Re: The $10,000-a-year college education has arrived (1981)

#149

Post by jxramos »

rconti wrote: post #62
crabasa wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> An 18 year old with no job and no credit history is going to have a hard time getting a credit card with a $5k limit Wow, citation please? Credit card companies set up pop-up stands and give away free t-shirts to students who apply for their credit cards. The VAST majority of the applications are happily approved. Update: excellent citation kileywm. I guess my perception was a bit dated.

Granted it was 15 years ago, but when I got my first credit card out of high school, the limit was $300.

indeed, $5K seems a long stretch, $500 range is more appropriate for first time credit.
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