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Physicists and Philosophers Debate the Boundaries of Science

quantamagazine.org

141–150 of 168 posts

Re: Physicists and Philosophers Debate the Boundaries of Science

#141
post #130
post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Now just formulate some sensible statistical model and voila - falsified. I think it was Carl Sagan who said that "soft sciences" are actually "cargo cult sciences". Out of your ten people, two are astrology haters and respond that everything is false, two are astrology nuts and respond that everything is true, two respond at random because they can't believe you are bothering them with such bullshit, two respond a…

In this case you would not look at how correct people think the horoscopes are, you would look at whether they think their own horoscope is most correct (they don’t know which is which of the ten). The average “subjective correctness” of the horoscopes is not something you would be interested in. You might throw it in somewhere in the paper you are writing, but more to show that ceiling or floor effects are not an is…

> (A potential issue might be people’s awareness of stereotypes associated with their astrological sign. I’m not sure how big a role those play of how important and consistent across different astrologers those are – as I said, not an expert – but if stereotypes associated with astrological signs are consistent and generally well known people might be able to identify the correct horoscope just based on the knowledge of those stereotypes, not any predictive power of the horoscopes.)

Good point.

Re: Physicists and Philosophers Debate the Boundaries of Science

#142
> "The crisis, as Ellis and Silk tell it, is the wildly speculative nature of modern physics theories, which they say reflects a dangerous departure from the scientific method."

Well, there are other areas of Science that have similar or even worse problems with speculative nature and departure from the scientific method. Read "Goo-to-you evolution". Not much "repeatable, observable experimentation" there.

If only Biologists were as honest and honed in consistent, rational and logical thinking as physicists.

I'm prone to think the historically more mathematical nature of the physics discipline plays a role here.

Re: Physicists and Philosophers Debate the Boundaries of Science

#143
post #135
post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The German word for entertaiment is "Unterhaltung", which is composed of "unten" and "halten" ("down" and "hold") - and that is what entertainment is: Holding the masses down (such that they don't ascend or revolt). Guess who is thus interested in funding entertainment.

I think that is not only incorrect considering the content but probably also the semantics involved. There are many German words that have "Unter" in them ("Unternehmen" --> Company; "Untersuchung" --> study) where it does not relate to the word "unten" in any way.

In fact it seems to be related to the "among" meaning of "unter". The etymology is similar for other languages:

http://www.etymonline.com/index.php?term=entertain

Re: Physicists and Philosophers Debate the Boundaries of Science

#144
post #133
post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In this case you would not look at how correct people think the horoscopes are, you would look at whether they think their own horoscope is most correct (they don’t know which is which of the ten). The average “subjective correctness” of the horoscopes is not something you would be interested in. You might throw it in somewhere in the paper you are writing, but more to show that ceiling or floor effects are not an is…

> Just ask them to rank the horoscopes after the purported predicted time frame … And that's the experiment I meant. Some will lie to swing the result to their liking, some will respond with bullshit for whatever other reasons. And the rest may easily respond "mostly true" if the author of those horoscopes has enough skill to make them sufficiently truistic and vague, which is what they typically do. Like, "something…

But that’s not the experiment that’s being conducted.

The question you ask is whether people are able to identify their own horoscope, not whether they think the horoscopes are correct, i.e. they might well believe that on a 1 to 10 scale their horoscope is a 7, but if they then also score all the others at 7 (on average) then the horoscope had no predictive power. Basically, all the other horoscopes act as a control. It’s a quite elegant setup.

Re: Physicists and Philosophers Debate the Boundaries of Science

#145
post #15

Physics used to be "hard science" - if it wasn't testable, it wasn't meaningful. Physicists used to look down on other sciences for that reason. This article shows how much worse things have become. Nobody can figure out a way to test string theory. In cosmology, you can only observe, not experiment. As the article points out, the big questions are out of reach for scaling reasons. Trying to fix the problem through w…

Physics used to be "hard science"

I'm not a physicist but pretty sure there's not one kind of physics. Applied physics is still hard science while theoretical physics does not lend itself as well to full scientific method. Both are highly valuable. When Einstein came up with special relativity he had no way to verify it in a lab but that turned out pretty well.

Re: Physicists and Philosophers Debate the Boundaries of Science

#146

I think high level theory is wandering aimlessly through a field blindfolded with little guidance or where to look. This is because our current theories are so good, we have no idea where to look. So it begins conjecturing and conjecturing. What it ends up with is nonsensical garbage that does little to advance physics. But yet, there isn't a crisis in physics at all since these theorists are so far removed from real…

I studied philosophy and physics and was really shocked how little the "philosophy of science" most scientists know.

The question of: "what is true" is NOT so easy as most people think. It is in fact a damn hard question and depends on the basic axioms you accept. First you need a logic, and there are many logics out there, classical logic and mathematical logic as one of the most accepted ones. Classical logic as humanly understandable is for example much more accepted in philosophy then the mathematical one, because it is much more stricter.

This question was also part of physics in the till 1920s but basically got forgotten there and the blind accepted of mathematical logic due QM became standard. Blind, because this is not a questions young physicists get confronted with.

Every good physicist was also a philosopher, simply, you can't separate those. You can't build a physical model without basic assumptions. You have to at least assume there is "stuff" of some sort, you have to assume there are dimensions of some sort.

Roughly a year ago, I stumbled about the BSM-SG model from Dr. Stoyan Sarg. http://www.amazon.com/Basic-Structures-Matter-Supergravitati...

I got intrigued, it only needs 2 fundamental particles, 3 Euclidean dimensions and one law of attraction. As a philosopher I heart was instantly: WOW, I have to give it a try. Never could accept more the 3 dimensions due thought experiments into lower ones.

I really spend month thinking about this theory, pah, once I had to take holidays from work because I could not think about anything else ;) And then I clicked and everything started to make sense, really everything. Each quantum effect, general relativity, atoms, spectral lines, like everything. In fact, once you understand the crystallization process of a galaxy, how such complex structures like protons, neutrons and electrons come to be.

It is funny to have an answer to this super old philosophical question: why, why this complex world. Because it is bound to be. Enough fundamental particles, and those bulks are bound to be, they crystallize in a quite complex but simple process into protoneutrons (protons/neutrons) & electrons that are bound to build a stable galaxy. The laws inside a galaxy are always stable and behave the same with matter made from the same galaxy.

(There is a corner case but i highly irregular one).

Anyway, I started to promote this model because nobody else seems to. Started a non profit for it etc. I knew that promoting alternative physical models gets strong opposition compared to all other sciences, but knowing what bad assumptions are in the Standard Model I just laugh silently about their ignorance.

http://www.pnas.org/content/112/24/7426.full.pdf

This hole understanding made me personally much more critical. I tend to distrust everything that requires mathematical logic - when I have a physical model that requires only classical one, why should anything else in nature be true when not. I look much more openly at fringe sciences, the explanaitions make usually no sense for me now, I understand the process is quite fast tho.

Btw, pulsars are not so hard to understand: Chapter 12.B.6.4 but you need to understand chapter 1,2,3,6 at least, otherwise it will not make any sense.

Re: Physicists and Philosophers Debate the Boundaries of Science

#147

I think high level theory is wandering aimlessly through a field blindfolded with little guidance or where to look. This is because our current theories are so good, we have no idea where to look. So it begins conjecturing and conjecturing. What it ends up with is nonsensical garbage that does little to advance physics. But yet, there isn't a crisis in physics at all since these theorists are so far removed from real…

> But yet, there isn't a crisis in physics at all since these theorists are so far removed from reality, I don't really care what they think. They don't really tell use anything useful or interesting so I tend to ignore them. Einstein was a theoretical physicist. Without his theories: * Japan might not have been defeated in WWII. * There might be more coal power plants, because there would be no nuclear power plants.…

Einstein was special because he never got lost with reality:

"We can invent as many theories we like, and any one of them can be made to fit the facts. But that theory is always preferred which makes the fewest number of assumptions."

And yet, physics ignores his LAST and FINAL conclusion about HIS theory:

"We may say that according to the general theory of relativity space is endowed with physical qualities; in this sense, therefore, there exists an aether. According to the general theory of relativity space without aether is unthinkable; for in such space there not only would be no propagation of light, but also no possibility of existence for standards of space and time (measuring-rods and clocks), nor therefore any space-time intervals in the physical sense. But this aether may not be thought of as endowed with the quality characteristic of ponderable media, as consisting of parts which may be tracked through time. The idea of motion may not be applied to it."

Re: Physicists and Philosophers Debate the Boundaries of Science

#148
post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, this is real and it can be done rigorously. The big problem is, "How do we come up with reasonable priors?" It is still a minority position.

> The big problem is, "How do we come up with reasonable priors?" Predictably, as a hardcore supporter of Popper's version, I don't think this problem will be solved.

Empirical Bayes methods (in which the priors come from observed sample data) are a thing.

Re: Physicists and Philosophers Debate the Boundaries of Science

#149

Nowadays, as several philosophers at the workshop said, Popperian falsificationism has been supplanted by Bayesian confirmation theory, or Bayesianism, a modern framework based on the 18th-century probability theory of the English statistician and minister Thomas Bayes. Bayesianism allows for the fact that modern scientific theories typically make claims far beyond what can be directly observed — no one has ever seen…

That sounds like a theorist dodging the issue.

The use of Bayesian statistical methods in papers is reasonably normal, although still the minority position.

The use of Bayesian falsification or confirmation theory as a philosophy of science is increasingly common.

The argument that we should switch to Bayesianism in situations where we cannot sample from the likelihood function (ie: perform an experiment which yields evidence distinguishing one hypothesis from another) is a special kind of bullshit where the attempt at "science" is being packed into prior formation to favor someone's pet theory.

Re: Physicists and Philosophers Debate the Boundaries of Science

#150
post #34

We had a rush of scientific breakthroughs 100 years ago. I believe we will have more. That experimentation in physics has slowed down to 18th century levels doesn't mean science is over, it just means the low-hanging fruit is over and we will have to continue slogging through theory before we discover new experiments. Science has always relied on philosophy for its underlying direction, it's just obvious again. It to…

Science slowed down in the 50s right when government got involved in a massive way in the grant process. Eisenhower even bemoaned this fact, along with the military/industrial complex in his final speech: "In this revolution, research has become central; it also becomes more formalized, complex, and costly. A steadily increasing share is conducted for, by, or at the direction of, the Federal government. Today, the so…

>Yet, in holding scientific research and discovery in respect, as we should, we must also be alert to the equal and opposite danger that public policy could itself become the captive of a scientifictechnological elite.

Well, nice that we managed to heed one of Eisenhower's warnings.

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