11–20 of 22 posts
"We've coded up the application that will run your business. It has a 80% chance of working correctly roughly 20% of the time with a 95% confidence interval."
In fact, businesses can't get enough of it.
(Statistics isn't something strange to business-logic types anyways, they understand probabilities and confidence intervals.)
They really called their language "blog"? I have to think that wasn't the best name ever..
It will probably never get as popular as the generic term blog, so it will be difficult to search "how to do X in blog?", so it will probably never get as popular...
Perhaps they consider renaming it as bayelog or something.
Interesting. They talk about plain old Metropolis Hastings, which is pretty questionable. Anyone excited about this, I highly recommend checking out Stan; it's under active development, actually works with real problems, and is used in the real world. With NUTS and HMC they've really made good on their promises, and quite soon they'll have meaningful ADVI support. See this former discussion: https://news.ycombinator.…
How easy would the transition to PyStan be?
"We've coded up the application that will run your business. It has a 80% chance of working correctly roughly 20% of the time with a 95% confidence interval."
That's _exactly_ how "machine learning" works, and nobody complains. In fact, businesses can't get enough of it. (Statistics isn't something strange to business-logic types anyways, they understand probabilities and confidence intervals.)
Confidence interval of 95% means that the estimator produces an interval that contains true parameter with probability 95%. It's not equivalent to the credible interval.
https://stats.stackexchange.com/questions/2272/whats-the-dif...
They really called their language "blog"? I have to think that wasn't the best name ever..
Perhaps it was an advanced defense measure against searches, since it was funded by a defence agency. \s It will probably never get as popular as the generic term blog, so it will be difficult to search "how to do X in blog?", so it will probably never get as popular... Perhaps they consider renaming it as bayelog or something.
Until Google "got it", searching for R was a pain (that was before the -lang suffix got popular)
Pick an unique name with several letters and a moderately used word, like Python or Ruby, it's not hard.
Interesting. They talk about plain old Metropolis Hastings, which is pretty questionable. Anyone excited about this, I highly recommend checking out Stan; it's under active development, actually works with real problems, and is used in the real world. With NUTS and HMC they've really made good on their promises, and quite soon they'll have meaningful ADVI support. See this former discussion: https://news.ycombinator.…
I'm a bit familiar with PyMC, but all it seems to do is Gibbs sampling, which mixes horribly compared to HMC. How easy would the transition to PyStan be?
It is different, but the core semantics are the same so you just have to worry about new syntax (and worse python integration)
why would darpa fund this?
For example (pseudocode):
random Boolean IsRunning ~ BooleanDistrib(0.001);
random Boolean CarNearby ~ BooleanDistrib(0.001);
random Boolean HasGun ~ BooleanDistrib(0.002);
random Boolean IsTerrorist ~
if IsRunning then
if HasGun then BooleanDistrib(0.95)
else BooleanDistrib(0.04)
else
if CarNearby then BooleanDistrib(0.29)
else BooleanDistrib(0.001);
obs IsRunning = true;
obs HasGun = true;
query IsTerrorist;Interesting. They talk about plain old Metropolis Hastings, which is pretty questionable. Anyone excited about this, I highly recommend checking out Stan; it's under active development, actually works with real problems, and is used in the real world. With NUTS and HMC they've really made good on their promises, and quite soon they'll have meaningful ADVI support. See this former discussion: https://news.ycombinator.…
I'm a bit familiar with PyMC, but all it seems to do is Gibbs sampling, which mixes horribly compared to HMC. How easy would the transition to PyStan be?
Interesting. They talk about plain old Metropolis Hastings, which is pretty questionable. Anyone excited about this, I highly recommend checking out Stan; it's under active development, actually works with real problems, and is used in the real world. With NUTS and HMC they've really made good on their promises, and quite soon they'll have meaningful ADVI support. See this former discussion: https://news.ycombinator.…