Earlier quoted context omitted.
>but it's also true that over a long enough timescale (100 years, to trigger a reductio ad absurdum) there is a very high risk that not replacing or rewriting that code will sink your technology and possibly your organization. Could you elaborate on what basis you claim this as a truth?
It's largely conjecture, admittedly. But there are very few pieces of software that last 40 years. Most companies don't plan to be out of business in the next 40 years. And many tech companies have gone out of business in even the last ten years because they weren't agile enough to adapt quickly to new technological changes.
There exists no software that has existed for 100 years, because software was invented sometime in the past hundred years. You can reductio ad absurdum that argument by saying, the week after the first software was written, that no pieces of software have lasted more than a week, and therefore very few pieces of software will last more than a week.
So very few pieces of software have lasted 40 years, because very few pieces of software were written at least 40 years ago.