The High-Stakes Race to Rid the World of Human Drivers • Hacker News Board

Re: The High-Stakes Race to Rid the World of Human Drivers

#101

Post by throwaway7767 » Tue, Dec 15, 2015, 12:04 PM UTC

zubspace wrote: post #96

TheEzEzz wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If those high targets are the only things remaining then I'd say the race is pretty close to finishing. I'd be more pessimistic if features on the todo list still included 'identifying stop signs', 'recognizing people', 'not killing people', and 'driving more smoothly than a teenager'.

There are just too many edge cases. I believe, that we'll get some kind of hybrid solution: computer drives on the highway during daytime otherwise drivers takes over. In Switzerland we have those wonderful pass roads. On one side you have the mountain, on the other side there's nothing. Never in my life would I let a computer drive down that road with my family in it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HDilGBIiKxI Some…

> There are just too many edge cases. I believe, that we'll get some kind of hybrid solution: computer drives on the highway during daytime otherwise drivers takes over.

Most likely, it'll start out as driving assist systems (like an advanced cruise control, similar to what tesla recently deployed). The computer does the driving, but the car needs a driver in the drivers seat, picking his nose and waiting for the very rare instance when intervention is needed.

To be honest, I think this would be a step back. Risk compensation[0] will ensure humans will put way too much faith in the system, and not be alert enough to intervene when needed. Plus, driving is boring enough when you're actually driving the car. Just sitting still on a 4+ hour journey, not able to actually do anything else (because you need to keep your eyes on the road) sounds like a special kind of hell to me.

Self-driving cars would be a huge leap forward. More driving assist systems will just make people less careful.

We can already see a lot of manufacturers rebranding their driving assist systems as "self-driving cars" because it's the cool thing to do.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk_compensation

Re: The High-Stakes Race to Rid the World of Human Drivers

#102

Post by to3m » Tue, Dec 15, 2015, 12:45 PM UTC

kagamine wrote: post #80

vectorjohn wrote: post #67

The comments on here are funny. People lose their mind when it comes to autonomous anything. ZOMG everyone's going to shoot down autonomous delivery drones! People will walk out into traffic! People will hack their cars and do crimes! Come on. All this is illegal now. It will still be illegal, and easily enforceable. Which is what keeps crimes from happening. That and human decency which most people have.

I think it's the other way, people on here are funny and lose their minds if you try to pose a problem that we can find a solution for. They're all "omg it's not a problem Google are already perfecting it!" There are a lot of issues that remain unresolved (snow does cover parts of N.America and Europe for months at a time). What's wrong with raising these issues and discussing them without resorting to "you so dumb,…

Didn't you hear? You won't be permitted to purchase an autonomous vehicle unless you can provide documentary evidence of your having been in favour of the technology even before it was proven.

Re: The High-Stakes Race to Rid the World of Human Drivers

#103

Post by to3m » Tue, Dec 15, 2015, 12:47 PM UTC

vectorjohn wrote: post #67

The comments on here are funny. People lose their mind when it comes to autonomous anything. ZOMG everyone's going to shoot down autonomous delivery drones! People will walk out into traffic! People will hack their cars and do crimes! Come on. All this is illegal now. It will still be illegal, and easily enforceable. Which is what keeps crimes from happening. That and human decency which most people have.

People walking out into traffic is not illegal everywhere!

Re: The High-Stakes Race to Rid the World of Human Drivers

#104

Post by ourmandave » Tue, Dec 15, 2015, 12:52 PM UTC

When my grandfather died back in the '80s my grandmother had to learn to drive because she'd been a passenger her whole life.

Re: The High-Stakes Race to Rid the World of Human Drivers

#105

Post by TeMPOraL » Tue, Dec 15, 2015, 12:59 PM UTC

woofyman wrote: post #15

jjoonathan wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, people will take advantage of AI drivers, but everything will be recorded and I'm sure the autonomous car companies can figure out how to put those recordings to use. Name&shame, sell the info to insurance companies, push to make it an automatic ticket, etc. After a shakedown period a more or less reasonable compromise will surely emerge.

I don't want to live in a society where every car becomes a tool of law enforcement.

And I don't want to live in a society where it's a customary for people to take selfish advantage of AI drivers, or any other system for that matter.

Maybe it's time to split up societies? Some people seem to value absolute freedom to do anything (and freedom from consequences). Others prefer having things actually work and be nice for everyone.

Re: The High-Stakes Race to Rid the World of Human Drivers

#106

Post by bjelkeman-again » Tue, Dec 15, 2015, 1:05 PM UTC

avn2109 wrote: post #61

shkkmo wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I want to live in a world where law enforcement isn't so pre-occupied dealing with traffic violations.

That is equivalent to wanting to live in a world wherein local government is adequately funded through ordinary taxation, such that it doesn't resort to highway shakedowns of the people for its operating revenue.

I actually live in such a country. Most (all?) of northern Europe is well functioning that way. It can work.

Re: The High-Stakes Race to Rid the World of Human Drivers

#107

Post by TeMPOraL » Tue, Dec 15, 2015, 1:14 PM UTC

TheEzEzz wrote: post #31

larrymcp wrote: post #18

Well if this is a "race" as the headline says, it sure is gonna be a long race, folks. These cars haven't yet been programmed to handle things like snow-covered roads where you can't see the lines, or construction zones that have you driving on the opposite side of the road at the direction of flaggers, etc... there's just a ton of work remaining to be done if your goal is truly to "rid the world of human drivers".

If those high targets are the only things remaining then I'd say the race is pretty close to finishing. I'd be more pessimistic if features on the todo list still included 'identifying stop signs', 'recognizing people', 'not killing people', and 'driving more smoothly than a teenager'.

What's more, people are forgetting that normal traffic does not go through wilderness, and roads are not just slabs of concrete in a line. We draw markings on the road. We put signs next to them. It stands to reason that as self-driving cars will be slowly deployed (I don't see them rolling out simultaneously in sunny California and in snowy Switzerland), we'll be updating road infrastructure with signs and other objects designed for AI drivers - ones that could help them determine road conditions better.

Re: The High-Stakes Race to Rid the World of Human Drivers

#108

Post by TeMPOraL » Tue, Dec 15, 2015, 1:15 PM UTC

unclebucknasty wrote: post #54

nostromo wrote: post #8

One thing I haven't heard much about is how humans and AI drivers will interact. If we all assume that AI cars are going to be very conservative and very competent drivers, will people take advantage of that? Will human drivers become even bigger assholes that cut off AI drivers at every possibility, knowing that an AI will not hit them? Why wait in a big line for an exit, when you know an AI car will always let you…

For me the bigger question is WRT the ongoing quest to marginalize human beings. Once we automate everything, then what?

Peace and prosperity, I hope.

Re: The High-Stakes Race to Rid the World of Human Drivers

#109

Post by TeMPOraL » Tue, Dec 15, 2015, 1:18 PM UTC

throwaway7767 wrote: post #99

TheEzEzz wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If those high targets are the only things remaining then I'd say the race is pretty close to finishing. I'd be more pessimistic if features on the todo list still included 'identifying stop signs', 'recognizing people', 'not killing people', and 'driving more smoothly than a teenager'.

Google's self driving cars only drive on roads that have been comprehensively mapped by google at great expense. You couldn't just take it to a new country and expect it to work. So yeah, there's a very long way to go until self-driving cars are ready to replace human drivers.

I believe it'll happen quicker than you think. Even if we can't move beyond having to create and maintain detailed road maps, once the concept has been proven to work, you can expect many companies simultaneously jumping to map their local regions. That's one thing capitalism is really good at - distributed, simultaneous deployment of solutions that have money-making potential.

Re: The High-Stakes Race to Rid the World of Human Drivers

#110

Post by TeMPOraL » Tue, Dec 15, 2015, 1:22 PM UTC

shanehoban wrote: post #92

Perhaps a better solution would be something totally void of automobiles? In terms of efficiency, is using the same technology (cars) in a different way - removing the driver - really going to have long term affects? My guess is that cars themselves will be out of production before we reach 100% adoption of driverless cars.

Electric cars seem to be a pretty good solution, though the cars of the future will probably be much smaller - right now we pad them a lot with extra metal and plastic so that the passengers can survive a collision. With self-driving cars you won't need that anymore. I imagine the future of cars is a PRT[0] system - it's a perfect thing for a city. As for travel between cities, that's what trains are for.

[0] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Personal_rapid_transit