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The High-Stakes Race to Rid the World of Human Drivers

theatlantic.com

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Re: The High-Stakes Race to Rid the World of Human Drivers

#71

Post by kobayashi »

jurassic wrote: post #11
nostromo wrote: post #8

One thing I haven't heard much about is how humans and AI drivers will interact. If we all assume that AI cars are going to be very conservative and very competent drivers, will people take advantage of that? Will human drivers become even bigger assholes that cut off AI drivers at every possibility, knowing that an AI will not hit them? Why wait in a big line for an exit, when you know an AI car will always let you…

I don't really see the problem with this. Cars should yield to pedestrians and cyclists, and the only reason they don't always do so now is because of some impatient humans at the wheel who prioritize their speed over the safety of other road users. Without road-raging human drivers behind the wheel, is the vehicle occupant going to care that they got to nap a few minutes longer on the way to work? Or got to read a f…

You can't have controlled traffic flows with constant jaywalking. And traffic flows will be increasingly important in order to minimize power consumption by automobiles and keep our growing cities liveable.

Re: The High-Stakes Race to Rid the World of Human Drivers

#72

Post by kobayashi »

rdtsc wrote: post #38
jurassic wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't really see the problem with this. Cars should yield to pedestrians and cyclists, and the only reason they don't always do so now is because of some impatient humans at the wheel who prioritize their speed over the safety of other road users. Without road-raging human drivers behind the wheel, is the vehicle occupant going to care that they got to nap a few minutes longer on the way to work? Or got to read a f…

> Cars should yield to pedestrians and cyclists The problem is if they don't and pedestrian gets killed there is not way to resurect the pedestrian, and start over. Therefore, pedestrian's goals is staying alive regardless of what laws are written in the books. To put it another way, most countries out there have laws about "cars yield to pedestrians on crossings" but in a lot of places I wouldn't want to prove a poi…

That's already happening. There are also some laws/policies which state that insurance premiums won't be increased for anyone who chooses to abstain from such a tracking program, but we'll see how long that lasts.

Re: The High-Stakes Race to Rid the World of Human Drivers

#73

Post by kobayashi »

avn2109 wrote: post #64
cpitman wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The same incentive they have today: profit based on taking in more in then they have to pay out based on risk. If insurance companies arbitrarily bump up insurance for manually driven cars, then that opens up a market for someone to jump in and accurately charge based on risk.

You presuppose that American insurance companies are not a very effective cartel, primarily functioning in the regulatory capture industry, with a side business in insurance. It would be cool if what you describe actually happened, but in the real world, premiums only ever move long-term in one direction: up.

More or less, I agree. With fewer accidents and fewer drivers insurance companies will be looking at decreased revenues. No company wants decreased revenues of that sort. Now, I'm not 100% familiar with the insurance industry and any regulatory capture that may take place, but then would be the time for a cartel to flex its muscles and ensure that startup insurance companies don't undercut them with fair pricing.

Re: The High-Stakes Race to Rid the World of Human Drivers

#74

Post by kobayashi »

aurizon wrote: post #35

well, first auto-car, then auto-truck, then auto-truck-train. (3-10 trailers with one tractor, and possibly hub motors suitable for long hauls with no turns) Then electric cars pas gas based cars. Then electric trucks with droppable battery packs - full charged in 2 minutes by changing it. Then they will get into local driving and delivery, into large mechanical drop boxes at houses and businesses. Deliveries 24-7. T…

The robot consumer might be the most underrated threat to humanity.

Re: The High-Stakes Race to Rid the World of Human Drivers

#75

Post by kagamine »

Animats wrote: post #70

For a sense of how this is going, you can read the California DMV's collection of autonomous vehicle accident reports.[1] 9 from Google, one from Delphi. Almost all the Google ones are a Google vehicle being rear-ended by another car at slow speed. Typical situation: Google AV turning right on red after a full stop. AV advances enough to get a good sensor view of cross traffic, detects cross traffic, and stops. Follo…

Driving behavior and patterns are important for safety too, when you assume that it's not the google AV's fault that it gets rear-ended you may be wrong. If a human driver sees more than the AV (has a bigger brain, more experience) and is able to better asses a situation, the human might not see why the AV is stopping, having assessed correctly that the way is clear. It is the AV's fault for not being smart enough, and thus acting erratically by normal driving standards and patterns.

I knew several people in the UK when we were learning to drive who failed their test because the tester thought them too cautious and therefore not confident enough to avoid an accident.

Reading on the subject of self driving cars, one gets the impression that there is a auto-assumption that human drivers must all be idiots who should never, ever have been allowed behind the wheel, but that probably isn't the case. I'm not saying the roads will be any less safe with AVs, but let's not believe all the Utopian propaganda of the businesses selling us this product.

Re: The High-Stakes Race to Rid the World of Human Drivers

#76

Post by bayesianhorse »

nostromo wrote: post #8

One thing I haven't heard much about is how humans and AI drivers will interact. If we all assume that AI cars are going to be very conservative and very competent drivers, will people take advantage of that? Will human drivers become even bigger assholes that cut off AI drivers at every possibility, knowing that an AI will not hit them? Why wait in a big line for an exit, when you know an AI car will always let you…

The interaction of AI and manual cars will depend on the general discipline of the drivers. There are countries in the world where according to rumours the traffic rules are somewhat open to interpretation...

Re: The High-Stakes Race to Rid the World of Human Drivers

#77

Post by wibr »

jobu wrote: post #22
rconti wrote: post #2

I just bought a 2016 Volkswagen that has laser cruise control and lane assist. I ordered the fully loaded package because the incremental cost was not large, and I figured I might as well have all the toys if I was going to the expense of buying a brand-new car. I consider myself an enthusiast; I have a fair bit of time on the racetrack in lapping days and amateur races, sometimes I volunteer at car control clinics a…

> it's always able to track the car in front of me perfectly I've always wondered how this would really work. What happens when the car ahead changes lanes or exits the freeway? Have you run into any issues with weather (rain, snow) interfering with the sensor?

That depends on the sensors which are used. Most current ACC systems use radar, which should not be affected by weather but has other problems like high cost, narrow field of view and you only get speed and distance as data points which are not always easy to interpret correctly. Ideally it's combined with a camera to get more information about the environment like land markings, so that you know if the car in front of you is actually in your lane or just going around the corner in the lane next to you. The camera is obviously prone to glare, raindrops, etc.. When the car ahead changes lanes or exits the freeway, the system will try to find another car as a target vehicle and adapt the speed accordingly to keep a certain timegap, if it can't find a target it will behave like normal cruise control.

Re: The High-Stakes Race to Rid the World of Human Drivers

#78

Post by kagamine »

thrownaway2424 wrote: post #24
sanswork wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>that deranged person can just sit down in front of the car, bringing everything to a halt. They can do that now unless you are suggesting running them over as a solution.

You can jump out of your car and either rationally debate with them the merits of allowing access to the right-of-way, or jump directly to violent threats. The problem with autonomous cars as they are being rationalized to the public is that half the time the car will have no occupants at all. There will be nobody in the car to leap out and shake their fist.

Make sure to take your GoPro, I want to see the upload of you, on a dark night, getting out of your car, into freezing winter temperatures in a lonely, isolated part of town, to negotiate with a violent drunk or two.

Just turn around? So the cars will be near spherical in design and with 4 wheel steering? Cool.

There are so many unresolved issues around self-driving cars, and the answer always seems to be "just do this", without any real solution to the problem as described. Self-driving vehicles may well be a good thing, but let's not stick our heads in the clouds and assume "it'll be okay".

Re: The High-Stakes Race to Rid the World of Human Drivers

#79

Post by 10735922 »

grogenaut wrote: post #39
gbhn wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or just do what a driverless car would do: call the authorities or turn around and proceed by another route.

Edit: ellaboration. Stopping in traffic and calling the cops because of this is going to be a non-starter. If you're the cause of the blockage how are they going to get there? The GP is right, there are many situations where it's not going to well, and I can see lots of pranks by highschoolers that will completely mess with self driving cars. Heck an accidental release of confetti would be an interesting experiment.

Why are you pretending to be stupid?

The cops would only be called if the car is blocked for several minutes or the passenger decides to do so. Nobody cares if the car has to brake for a few seconds and then continues driving as usual. We spend far more time at traffic lights anway.

Re: The High-Stakes Race to Rid the World of Human Drivers

#80

Post by kagamine »

vectorjohn wrote: post #67

The comments on here are funny. People lose their mind when it comes to autonomous anything. ZOMG everyone's going to shoot down autonomous delivery drones! People will walk out into traffic! People will hack their cars and do crimes! Come on. All this is illegal now. It will still be illegal, and easily enforceable. Which is what keeps crimes from happening. That and human decency which most people have.

I think it's the other way, people on here are funny and lose their minds if you try to pose a problem that we can find a solution for. They're all "omg it's not a problem Google are already perfecting it!" There are a lot of issues that remain unresolved (snow does cover parts of N.America and Europe for months at a time). What's wrong with raising these issues and discussing them without resorting to "you so dumb, it gonna be fine, doomsayer!"?
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