How will you be programming in a decade?

We already have the "specialized device used in software development": the laptop (read: MacBook). No longer do we need to be tethered to wires and the grid in order to get meaningful work done as laptop battery efficiency, processing power, and mobile internet connectivity is substantially better than it was ten years, even five years ago. With dedicated cloud servers we do a lot of the compiling and automated test running and deployment on machines other than our personal ones while simultaneously writing new fixes and features ready for the next cycle of server-side code building.

Ten years ago we were in the middle of switching from wired desktops to laptops, but laptops just weren't portable enough due to weight and longevity when disconnected from the wall. Today this is still there case as our processing needs have increased as our laptops have become more formidable. I expect in ten years we'll still be in the same position.

What has been happening on the phone/tablet/watch/etc side of things however is that we're able to do all of our non coding tasks on the go in a less distracting way, such as responding to emails, retriggering failed code builds, or even reviewing code and merging pull requests. But actual programming will be crazy slow without a tactile full sized keyboard, things we've relied on to code with since the dawn of calculators/computers, and that won't change until we're programming software graphically, i.e. as if we were using Origami with Quartz Composer or RelativeWave Form, as opposed to textually.

Ten or twenty years ago video or audio editing required an expensive specialized workstation. Today you plug a few specialized peripherals into your regular computer.

I see it as the same thing. Maybe keyboards and monitors will be rare, expensive, specialized devices. But you'll buy them and connect them up to the same kind of computing device that regular people use. There's no reason for the underlying computer hardware to be anything other than commodity.

I am not sure about this article. Mobile and tablet have had massive rates of adoption but even they are getting saturated now.

There are still large numbers of businesses that use desktops. Everywhere I look there are desktops. Tablets are displacing some but not all in business.

What I need to work is a reasonably large screen, a good keyboard, and a computer powerful enough to run a decent editor, browser and ssh connection from that machine to one or more machines running the rest of my stuff.

In other words: I need a terminal. There's no need for me to have a beefy computer on my desk, because I can leave that under my stairs and not have to worry where I work on it from, and mix and match when I use my home server or cloud instances.

The laptop I type this on basically functions as a luggable terminal (it's a 17" one; I often pack my 11" Chromebook with it when travelling so I don't need to pull out the 17" one for minor stuff...), and not much more.

The only thing that will make me upgrade my laptop is improved graphics performance, better screen or better keyboard - everything else is pointless for me.

Meanwhile almost every mid range Chinese tablet today (mid-range = ca. $100-$200 these days) seems to be Atom based and supporting 4K HDMI output and dual-booting Android and Windows...It's getting very close to the point where a tablet or phone + bluetooth keyboard + a HDMI connection is sufficient or me to work. 4K LED TV's are so cheap now that I'm tempted to experiment.

I'll extrapolate from my personal coding history. Late 70s to mid 80s was Basic, Z80 & Forth on Pets, ZX81 & Lynx. Professional career started in 85, and that was Fortran & C up to 1992 when I started coding in C++. Added Java in 97, Python in 2000 and C# in 2002. I've dabbled in R & Cobol at various times. I'm coding in C++ and C# today. I expect I'll still be coding in C++, C#, Java & Python in 10 years time. Maybe Rust will be in the mix too.