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Climate Change Authority Admits Mistake

technologyreview.com

21–30 of 67 posts

Re: Climate Change Authority Admits Mistake

#21
post #19

It seems like climate scientists are more occupied with manipulating the data to suit them rather than reporting the facts. Sample from some climate emails: "Ammann/Wahl - try and change the Received date! Don't give those skeptics something to amuse themselves with." Source: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405274870477970457455...

Simple selection bias. It "seems" that way because there's no story to write about people just doing their work.

And I'm being downmodded why? Maybe selection bias also isn't happening??

Re: Climate Change Authority Admits Mistake

#22
post #6

The IPCC reports are thousands of pages, so it's not surprising that there are errors. You can find errors in a large fraction of scientific papers if you look hard enough. The relevant question is whether there are more errors in the papers that support the idea of global warming than those that don't. Just judging from what I've seen, the complete crackpot papers (like this one: http://arxiv.org/abs/0707.1161v4 ) a…

Sorry, I accidentally upvoted.

Your assertion that papers with less errors are more scientific, is not at all true.

Plus you are missing the point if you think counting errors has anything to do with this. Someone has successfully convinced the IPCC that it is RIDICULOUS to claim Himalayan glaciers will be gone in 25 years, and this is a victory for the scientific community.

Re: Climate Change Authority Admits Mistake

#23
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Much of the trumpeting over AGW has been about "consensus among the scientific community", as if scientists get to vote to decide what's true. We are now discovering that if there is, indeed, such a consensus, then it's partly due to derailing the literature (see Hadley) or selling to us media sources as if they were scientists doing real research. I think they've got a lot to apologize for, and they now have a lot o…

While it's true that you can't do science by consensus, it is legitimate to look at a range of studies and see where they agree. Those parts that most studies agree on can justifiably be called the "consensus among the scientific community". Your last paragraph simply isn't justified. Do you think any action or conclusion lives up to that standard? In particular, why do you think those that argue that AGW is not happ…

In particular, why do you think those that argue that AGW is not happening should be given more of a benefit of the doubt? ... if you are going to argue that it's not happening, you have much more justification to do.

Because the scientific method dictates that the burden of proof is borne by the one proposing the theory. The opposite is impractical, because for most questions it's not possible to prove the open-ended negative.

Re: Climate Change Authority Admits Mistake

#24
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps. But the IPCC is sold (and mostly accepted) as a sort of bible of climate change science. The article you linked appears to me not to claim such broad authority, but to advocate skepticism. It seems to me like items in the first category need to be held to a higher standard. Indeed, the scientific method itself tells us that those putting forward a theory (such as AGW) bear the burden of proof.

Anthropogenic global warming is not a theory being put forth, it's the logical consequence of physical principles that are well established. It's not at all like Einstein proposing General Relativity. What (serious) people are arguing over is details of the analysis and the magnitude of effects. Those uncertainties are real, but it is no different from any other scientific debate. The article I linked, if you actuall…

Anthropogenic global warming is not a theory being put forth, it's the logical consequence of physical principles that are well established. It's not at all like Einstein proposing General Relativity.

I'm sorry to be blunt, but this is just plain wrong, and shows a profound misunderstanding of the scientific method.

First, do you think that Einstein was just making stuff up from whole cloth? No, he was working from well-established physical principles, building onto it using logical reasoning. Despite the fact that his reasoning was logical, there was still every reason for requiring verification (and indeed, Einstein insisted on it) because there could be alternative explanations.

Similarly, AGW builds on known principles like the "greenhouse effect". But the way it seeks to apply these to a hideously complex, chaotic system requires extensive verification. What's known to be true at the micro level might not be applicable to the entire system at all.

Thus, the theory of AGW is precisely like that of General Relativity in that it absolutely requires verification. (Unfortunately, it's unlike GR in that it's not so easily experimented upon)

The scientific method requires that the burden of proof is on the claimant. The one proposing a theory has the responsibility to prove it; the world at large need not disprove it. It must work this way, because it's generally not possible to prove the opposite. When you say you saw Elvis, you can't require that I prove that you didn't.

See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burden_of_proof#Burden_of_proof...

[Edit: spelling fix] [Edit #2: I'm really dismayed to see the parent post getting up-voted. I can't fathom how you can assert that AGW is not a "theory being put forth", and thus escapes the requirement of proof.]

Re: Climate Change Authority Admits Mistake

#25
post #19

It seems like climate scientists are more occupied with manipulating the data to suit them rather than reporting the facts. Sample from some climate emails: "Ammann/Wahl - try and change the Received date! Don't give those skeptics something to amuse themselves with." Source: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405274870477970457455...

Simple selection bias. It "seems" that way because there's no story to write about people just doing their work.

Exactly. Scandal leads. So we've got a war between "We're all going to drown!" and "AGW is a liberal conspiracy!". The demographic for "Maybe we should look seriously at cheap options for energy efficiency and carbon mitigation." is practically zero.

Re: Climate Change Authority Admits Mistake

#26
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anthropogenic global warming is not a theory being put forth, it's the logical consequence of physical principles that are well established. It's not at all like Einstein proposing General Relativity. What (serious) people are arguing over is details of the analysis and the magnitude of effects. Those uncertainties are real, but it is no different from any other scientific debate. The article I linked, if you actuall…

Anthropogenic global warming is not a theory being put forth, it's the logical consequence of physical principles that are well established. It's not at all like Einstein proposing General Relativity. I'm sorry to be blunt, but this is just plain wrong, and shows a profound misunderstanding of the scientific method. First, do you think that Einstein was just making stuff up from whole cloth? No, he was working from w…

Sorry, but if you think that AGW and General Relativity are statements of similar stature, you need to learn more physics. General Relativity could not be derived from the prevailing paradigm at the time (Newtonian physics). It was a completely new framework proposed to explain certain observations that could not be explained in Newtonian physics. In contrast, AGW was not proposed to explain any observation. It was derived from accepted physics.

Not that I ever said that you don't need to subject either to tests. You absolutely do. But if you think you can "prove" a scientific theory, I think it is you who is showing a profound misunderstanding of the scientific method.

You can never prove a scientific theory, you can only disprove it. You can confirm a theory a million times but that does not imply that it will work the next time. It does however give us some amount of confidence that it will.

My point is that as far as scientific statements go, that AGW happens is like saying "I think the ball will fall", while to say that it doesn't happen is to say "I think the ball will fall, but imperceptibly slowly.". Both should be tested, but given that one agrees with known physics and one does not, I think the latter should be viewed with more suspicion.

But maybe that's just me.

Re: Climate Change Authority Admits Mistake

#27
post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If those people were claiming that there were no mistakes anywhere in the high-profile AGW literature, then they should certainly be apologizing. (But then, anyone claiming that should have been apologizing anyway; everything has mistakes, near enough.) If they were merely saying: there's a huge body of scientific work supporting AGW, and claims to the contrary are consistently found to be the result of error or dish…

Much of the trumpeting over AGW has been about "consensus among the scientific community", as if scientists get to vote to decide what's true. We are now discovering that if there is, indeed, such a consensus, then it's partly due to derailing the literature (see Hadley) or selling to us media sources as if they were scientists doing real research. I think they've got a lot to apologize for, and they now have a lot o…

A not uncommon scenario: There is data X, as the result of some experiment. Researches in group 1 say X implies A and B, researchers in group 2 say X implies A and C, and researchers in group 3 say X implies Q then A. They all propose different sets of experiments to further understand the phenomenon, they all write different papers, etc. Yet we can say there is consensus about implication A. Even if some data Y comes along (at a later point) completely disproving A, consensus on A (currently) drives further research.

For example: the ether, higgs particle, various cutting edge medical stuff.

My point here is they aren't voting on what is true so much as agreeing on the most likely scenario given the evidence and deciding how to further persue investigation.

Re: Climate Change Authority Admits Mistake

#28
post #25
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Simple selection bias. It "seems" that way because there's no story to write about people just doing their work.

Exactly. Scandal leads. So we've got a war between "We're all going to drown!" and "AGW is a liberal conspiracy!". The demographic for "Maybe we should look seriously at cheap options for energy efficiency and carbon mitigation." is practically zero.

> The demographic for "Maybe we should look seriously at cheap options for energy efficiency and carbon mitigation." is practically zero.

Actually, that demographic is huge. Folks would love cheaper energy.

What they're being offered is more expensive energy and carbon mitigation.

Re: Climate Change Authority Admits Mistake

#29
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps. But the IPCC is sold (and mostly accepted) as a sort of bible of climate change science. The article you linked appears to me not to claim such broad authority, but to advocate skepticism. It seems to me like items in the first category need to be held to a higher standard. Indeed, the scientific method itself tells us that those putting forward a theory (such as AGW) bear the burden of proof.

>Perhaps. But the IPCC is sold (and mostly accepted) as a sort of bible of climate change science. Oh, come on. Really? Sure, most people won't question the IPCC. But most people also won't question other similar institutions. The real question is whether scientists feel that the IPCC is their bible. And I don't think they do.

I read the FOIA feedback on the IPCC's report and it was full of really incredulous scientists' comments about the innacuracy and question begging nature of their report.

To substantiate what I said, check in the documents folder: ipcc-tar-master.rtf ipcc-tar-master2.rtf

Re: Climate Change Authority Admits Mistake

#30
post #9
post #7

The real question here is: Does anyone still believe that the IPCC is a legitimate scientific panel? They are a political action committee with an agenda. Whether or not their agenda is legitimate is not the point. Good on them, however, for admitting the problem.

The real answer is: Yes

I guess anyone who hasn't checked the FOIA docs. Otherwise, I can't see how any intellectually honest person can. Just briefly skim README.txt in the documents folder if you are skeptical. It's the programmer's journal detailing all the atrocities he ran across as he reengineered the datasets and climate models.
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