Silicon Valley Is Not Driving Jobs Growth • Hacker News Board

Re: Silicon Valley Is Not Driving Jobs Growth

#11

Post by bko » Fri, Dec 04, 2015, 9:12 PM UTC

augustocallejas wrote: post #3

Here's a though experiment I came up with several years ago: Say one day you created a copy of the Earth and with that copy, it had the same population as the current Earth, and they were connected so you can travel between them easily. I can see that these two worlds would need twice as many barbers as the current world. Would these two new worlds need twice as many Google/Facebook/etc. employees?

People often forget that jobs are an expense, not a benefit. We should celebrate that society can do more with less. If someone thinks that jobs need to be created through artificial means to keep people busy and give them some money, then that person has a rather dim view of human potential.

Re: Silicon Valley Is Not Driving Jobs Growth

#12

Post by MAGZine » Fri, Dec 04, 2015, 9:13 PM UTC

steverb wrote: post #4

The lack of jobs growth doesn't seem that surprising, but the lack of productivity growth does. Is it just that new technologies aren't really all that relevant to increasing productivity? Are we just not adopting technologies that would make us more productive? I'd love to have a glimmer as to what the root cause of that is.

Productivity has grown tremendously since the 70s in non-construction segments. The largest improvements have been made. Arguably, in the last 5-10 years, tech improvements have been only incremental compared to the last 15+.

Re: Silicon Valley Is Not Driving Jobs Growth

#13

Post by homogeneous » Fri, Dec 04, 2015, 9:17 PM UTC

> in 2010, only 0.5% of the US labour force is employed in industries that did not exist in 2000

Well that doesn't seem too surprising, I can't really think of many industries that exist today that didn't in 2000.

Re: Silicon Valley Is Not Driving Jobs Growth

#14

Post by bunnymancer » Fri, Dec 04, 2015, 9:18 PM UTC

"The magnitude of workers shifting into new industries is strikingly small: in 2010, only 0.5% of the US labour force is employed in industries that did not exist in 2000…"

Pretty sure we had computers prior to 2000... Considering the whole millennium bug scare..

So "Software Developer" isn't part of the statistic.

Re: Silicon Valley Is Not Driving Jobs Growth

#15

Post by ethbro » Fri, Dec 04, 2015, 9:20 PM UTC

bpodgursky wrote: post #8

augustocallejas wrote: post #3

Here's a though experiment I came up with several years ago: Say one day you created a copy of the Earth and with that copy, it had the same population as the current Earth, and they were connected so you can travel between them easily. I can see that these two worlds would need twice as many barbers as the current world. Would these two new worlds need twice as many Google/Facebook/etc. employees?

Having twice the market would allow specialization into technology we don't have now because they are not profitable; division of labor works better the more people you have. Intel would never be possible in a world with 1mm people; their fab centers are spectacularly expensive fixed costs. So no, we wouldn't need 2x the Google employees, but there would be a need for employees in a market that doesn't exist now.

> Intel would never be possible in a world with 1mm people; their fab centers are spectacularly expensive fixed costs.

I think that's an interesting point that's the continuation of OP's line of thinking + Ford's original thinking. Facebook/etc (to return to the pure-digital companies) would not be possible in a world without X people with disposable income. It's tough to make money on people who can't afford things. How's MySpace doing vs Facebook?

Which imho is a rebuttal the opinion that these kinds of "pure tech" jobs do scale -- true, but only in relation to the number of other jobs people are already earning income from. You can't squeeze blood (revenue) from an (unemployed) stone.

Re: Silicon Valley Is Not Driving Jobs Growth

#16

Post by myth_buster » Fri, Dec 04, 2015, 9:20 PM UTC

  Optimists argue that throughout the history of capitalism, new technologies 
  have always led to new jobs in the long run. But pessimists say that this 
  trend isn’t guaranteed to continue, and the chance that we are in an era 
  where wealth is created without jobs raises very thorny questions about how 
  that wealth will be distributed fairly.

Nothing keeps the populace employed as good ol' agriculture does!

Sure there are "new jobs" but job creation doesn't have a fundamental law analogous to the law of conservation of momentum. Efficient tech is at it's very heart a job destroyer. So with growing population and shrinking meaningful jobs what we end up with is civil unrest. Hence we have people employed doing busy works who come home to constant stream of "news" and "entertainment" and another section doing the busy work churning out these contents! Apart from breeding inequality it also breed discontent. Perhaps evolutionarily humans are wired to feel satisfaction at the end of a hard days work.

Re: Silicon Valley Is Not Driving Jobs Growth

#17

Post by bradleyjg » Fri, Dec 04, 2015, 9:21 PM UTC

augustocallejas wrote: post #3

Here's a though experiment I came up with several years ago: Say one day you created a copy of the Earth and with that copy, it had the same population as the current Earth, and they were connected so you can travel between them easily. I can see that these two worlds would need twice as many barbers as the current world. Would these two new worlds need twice as many Google/Facebook/etc. employees?

Sounds a little bit like the Long Earth series by Pratchett and Baxter. Though there it was an infinite number rather than just two, they were initially unpopulated, and there were sharp limits on moving material between worlds. (Cool premise mediocre execution IMO.)

Anyway re: your original thought experiment I'd say no. If you look at the rapid growth phases of those companies, I don't think the employee growth rate was as fast as the customer growth rate. I think that's what people mean when they call something a scalable business.

Re: Silicon Valley Is Not Driving Jobs Growth

#18

Post by [deleted] » Fri, Dec 04, 2015, 9:21 PM UTC

[deleted]

Re: Silicon Valley Is Not Driving Jobs Growth

#19

Post by Apocryphon » Fri, Dec 04, 2015, 9:21 PM UTC

Wall Street burned up a lot of its goodwill with the public with the various financial scandals. Certainly, they're still in business and will be in for the foreseeable future. But can Silicon Valley have the foresight to preemptively defuse future backlash against job destruction brought upon by automation? Perhaps it's time to get some major tech CEOs pushing forward proposals for basic income. Certainly some VCs have already been making public statements about it.

Re: Silicon Valley Is Not Driving Jobs Growth

#20

Post by slg » Fri, Dec 04, 2015, 9:22 PM UTC

bko wrote: post #11

augustocallejas wrote: post #3

Here's a though experiment I came up with several years ago: Say one day you created a copy of the Earth and with that copy, it had the same population as the current Earth, and they were connected so you can travel between them easily. I can see that these two worlds would need twice as many barbers as the current world. Would these two new worlds need twice as many Google/Facebook/etc. employees?

People often forget that jobs are an expense, not a benefit. We should celebrate that society can do more with less. If someone thinks that jobs need to be created through artificial means to keep people busy and give them some money, then that person has a rather dim view of human potential.

Except for the fact that a job is a prerequisite to affording a comfortable lifestyle. Until something like basic income is implemented (which simply isn't politically practical in the US currently) I don't blame anyone for trying to artificially create jobs to keep people busy and allow them to earn some money.