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Thomas Piketty: Clamping down with law and order will not be enough

piketty.blog.lemonde.fr

161–170 of 183 posts

Re: Thomas Piketty: Clamping down with law and order will not be enough

#161
post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> At the very least that data does not really fit the theory. What theory? It certainly fits a theory: that insecurity (and, thus, plenty of downward mobility), limited upward mobility, and a steep drop to the bottom combine to provide a condition in which members of the middle class become more prone to reject the existing social order and adopt extreme alternatives that are offered.

You see, that's precisely what's twisting the facts to fit the theory is like. If you have a theory that it's all because of income inequality, and then the facts are that it's not the poor who are terrorists, now you have to amend your theory that it's actually the moderately rich who are afraid of becoming poor. And that's why they go on suicide terrorist attacks?! If it was the poor who did the attacks then it wou…

> You see, that's precisely what's twisting the facts to fit the theory is like. If you have a theory that it's all because of income inequality, and then the facts are that it's not the poor who are terrorists, now you have to amend your theory that it's actually the moderately rich who are afraid of becoming poor.

The insecurities of the middle class and the direction they push hardest being a key factor in both revolutionary violence and support for tyrannical government (depending on whether the fear of the continuation of the current or the fear of its collapse dominates, which can vary for different members of the same middle class) isn't exactly a novel theory, even outside the specific case of middle eastern terrorism (in fact, the first time I seem to remember it is in the context of the 19th Century European revolutions.)

> If you have a theory that it's all because of income inequality, and then the facts are that it's not the poor who are terrorists, now you have to amend your theory

No, you don't, because the theory that "income inequality" is a contributing factor does not imply that the actors are "the poor".

If you have a theory that their own poverty is the reason that individual terrorists become terrorists, you'd have to revise the theory, but that's not what the theory was to start with.

> that it's actually the moderately rich who are afraid of becoming poor. And that's why they go on suicide terrorist attacks?!

No, that economic insecurity combined with lack of upward mobility in the middle class leads to disillusionment with the existing order, desperation, and susceptibility to alternative worldviews to those supporting the existing order.

Now, where on top of the economic conditions, you also have a situation where, due to a variety of factors (including attempts to repress alternative views to preserve the power and privilege of the existing elites) there aren't non-violent, non-radical groups that provide something that feels like a plausible alternative, those susceptible to alternative views are going to be, more than in other circumstances, drawn to violent, radical groups.

> I'm sorry if I sound disparaging, but I've had this debate 50 times before, and the mental gymnastics to keep an incorrect theory alive are virtually impossible to penetrate to the point that I'm not even sure if there are any conceivable facts that would falsify that theory in the minds of those who believe in it.

Facts that would falsify a theory of economic inequality contributing to terrorism would be statistics showing that, controlling for other factors that demonstrably contribute to terrorism, economic inequality has no correlation, or a negative correlation, to terrorism.

The things you offer are facts that would falsify particular models of how economic inequality contributes to terrorism, but those particular models seem to be strawmen.

Re: Thomas Piketty: Clamping down with law and order will not be enough

#162
post #67
post #58

The cause of ISIS is Islamic extremism. Not income inequality. Not climate change. Islamic extremism. Those who claim otherwise are merely playing politics to advance political agendas. Sam Harris, the well-known atheist author and speaker, describes such people well[0]: "These people are part of what [Muslim reformist] Maajid Nawaz has termed the “regressive Left”—pseudo-liberals who are so blinded by identity polit…

What is the origin of the Islamic extremism? Why does this group of Muslims kill people while the vast majority do not?

> Why does this group of Muslims kill people while the vast majority do not?

Pareto?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareto_principle

Re: Thomas Piketty: Clamping down with law and order will not be enough

#163
post #114

I don't understand why we shouldn't believe what's coming straight out of ISIS' mouth. ISIS has said they're killing us because of their interpretation of a book written in the first millennia. They say this every time they attack us. Yet (mostly on the left) we keep coming up with reasons why this isn't the case. "No, actually, you're not attacking us for that reason, really it's our fault because we gave the oil to…

Rudimentary talk-radio analysis aside... I find Daesh far scarier than other Islamic fundamentalist movements because their techniques are more sophisticated and their aim is much higher. The "they're killing us!" argument is so silly... terror attacks are to stir western nations into violent action, not to actually significantly injure us. And it works - far too many Americans and Europeans live and act politically…

One could argue that those powers actually willing to use those nuclear weapons are the more dangerous threat.

Re: Thomas Piketty: Clamping down with law and order will not be enough

#164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Keep in mind it's not so much that Mohamed was a 'paedophile' by our modern definition, rather that the definition has changed over time. Even in our own culture it was once the norm to betroth daughters to suitors while they were pre-pubescent, and to marry them as soon as they reached puberty... Polygamy is also a result of a violent era in which there were more unattached women than men - and in which having a hus…

>Even in our own culture it was once the norm to betroth daughters to suitors while they were pre-pubescent, and to marry them as soon as they reached puberty. I'm interested in learning more. Can you narrow down what you mean by "our own culture", and provide a time frame? Like "Early America 1600-1800", or England in the 1400s, Anglo-Saxon culture, 1200, or Irish-Catholic 1300, or whatever. And then maybe point in…

From the time of the Roman empire until the French Revolution, the 'legal' marriage age for women was 12 (as per Roman law and later Church law). You could be betrothed (promised) at any age. Historic documents also show marriages did happen at younger ages. It's well known and easy to find through multiple sources (Google).

Re: Thomas Piketty: Clamping down with law and order will not be enough

#165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a bit generalizing. This paper[1] talks about the over-representation of engineers in violent Islamic organizations. Specifically talks about how there are fewer engineers in Saudi Arabia and Indonesia versus Palestine and other countries in the same type of groups. There seems to be /some/ correlation between economic opportunity and sub-segments of the population joining these types of groups. [1] http://www…

I can't read the paper now but I've read on that specific topic before. The assertions were usually that people drawn to the clear-cut answers of engineering also wanted to organize the world with definitive rights and wrongs, and those 'black or white, no shades of grey' people are more likely to agree with the zealotry of terrorist groups.

Same paper - while monoism/simplism/preservatism argument is one of the three major points the full paper. The rest is worth the time to read.

Re: Thomas Piketty: Clamping down with law and order will not be enough

#166
post #135
post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a difference between the stated motive of ISIS and what enables them to exist and grow. I have a hard time believing that they can be so effective in their recruitment efforts with a message based entirely on an interpretation of an old book. It is more plausible to me that they prey on desperate, mentally unwell, and disaffected people to join their cause.

This is simply false. Most terrorists are highly educated. The 9/11 terrorists had a college education, some had PhD's.

Highly educated people cannot possibly be desperate, mentally unwell, or disaffected? That's also "simply false" and you say so yourself: "You can be a rocket scientist and a religious idiot at the same time". You can be highly educated and a lot of things at the same time (which one would know from reading HN on a regular basis), but perhaps only the traits that fit your narrative are allowed.

Re: Thomas Piketty: Clamping down with law and order will not be enough

#167
post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"no I wouldn't" I guess it was too much to ask you to walk a mile in their shoes, because we internet dwelling rich folk literally cannot comprehend poverty on this level, of watching your family die before your eyes as a teenager. "vast majority of the impoverished do not commit such atrocities." The vast majority don't have a years pay untaxed offered, never have to make the choice. Easy to say they won't do someth…

It is possible for me to walk two miles and still conclude that no I would not purposefully murder dozens of innocent civilians. It's possible I've even thought about this before. But it's cool that you think there's only one logical outcome and anyone who disagrees is just too unempathetic to see why your view is the only correct view.

Please don't use snark when the topic is already inflammatory.

Re: Thomas Piketty: Clamping down with law and order will not be enough

#168
post #81

I'm going to have to go with Mohammed on this one, look him up, he's the picture of ISIS, child rapist, murderer, enslaver, and all around shitty guy. Most Muslims realize he's not someone to be emulated, ever. Also, it takes a lot of citizens producing surpluses in support of these ideals to field an effective army of any size, so not all Muslims can be members of the ISIS Army most have to settle for paying taxes,…

Religious flamewars are not welcome on Hacker News. Please do not conduct them here.

We detached this subthread from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10651715 and marked it off-topic.

Re: Thomas Piketty: Clamping down with law and order will not be enough

#169
post #92

There is a lot of extremely opinionated and pointed discussion going on in these comments. How many of you read the article? How many of you read the original article, the one published in Le Monde, in French? I have a sneaking suspicion that most of the people here criticizing what Piketty is saying don't even know what he is saying.

Here's an English translation: http://piketty.blog.lemonde.fr/2015/11/24/clamping-down-with...

Since that's as close as we can get to the original source in English, let's just change the URL to it.

Was https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/11/30/why-i....

Re: Thomas Piketty: Clamping down with law and order will not be enough

#170
post #166
post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is simply false. Most terrorists are highly educated. The 9/11 terrorists had a college education, some had PhD's.

Highly educated people cannot possibly be desperate, mentally unwell, or disaffected? That's also "simply false" and you say so yourself: "You can be a rocket scientist and a religious idiot at the same time". You can be highly educated and a lot of things at the same time (which one would know from reading HN on a regular basis), but perhaps only the traits that fit your narrative are allowed.

Being a religious idiot is not the same thing as being desperate, mentally unwell, and disaffected. The point is that the picture that is being sketched is in-congruent with reality. If we want to have any chance to solve this issue the first step needs to be a honest examination of the causes, not academics taking their pet topics and trying to fit terrorism and ISIS into that.

What causes a successful college student who has just gotten a job as an architect to decide that the best use of his life is to fly a plane into a building? What causes a person in their twenties in Europe to decide that the best use of their life is to go to Syria to join the Islamic State? Or to go to Paris and shoot up a theater?

Let's back up a bit. What causes a person to decide to go to planned parenthood to shoot up a bunch of doctors? Is it because of income inequality? Climate change? Russian foreign policy? Or maybe it is because he is sincerely convinced that the metaphysics of this world work as follows. At the time of conception the soul enters the embryo. In order for this soul to enter heaven the baby needs to be baptized. If this doesn't happen then their soul either goes to burn in eternal hell or to limbo. Now, there is a clinic next door where people are literally killing babies before they are baptized (i.e. abortion). The doctors are evil maniacs who are putting thousands of babies in hell. Maybe we should do something to defend those babies? God wants us to do something to save His babies! If we don't save His babies we are evil and he will put us in hell!

You see, the problem is that in this worldview shooting up doctors at planned parenthood is a most moral action.

Now imagine that you sincerely believe in the following metaphysics. We are living in the Matrix, but this Matrix is a bit different than the one in the movie in that to leave it you don't pick up a telephone, but you have to die. This Matrix has been set up by the Creator to test you. If you obey his commands you will get eternal bliss in heaven when you exit the Matrix, and otherwise you get eternal suffering in hell. What are the Creator's wishes? He hates the Infidels. He hates that they publish cartoons to make fun of Him. He hates their societies are filled with sex, personal enrichment, and lack of devotion to Him. He hates that they occupy Jerusalem, His holy city. He hates that there is no worldwide Caliphate. He has written in his book that to ensure a place in heaven you can kill infidels. You get 72 virgins in heaven, and you get to pick a dozen people from your family who will also get a place in heaven. So what is this guy thinking while shooting up random people in a theater in Paris? He is counting the kills, and the Creator is counting with him. The number of people he kills will determine how much the Creator will love him. When he has killed enough he presses the button on his suicide vest to teleport into heaven, and start selecting family members to ensure their place in heaven when they die.

This Jihadist suicide cult worldview is the #1 problem, and people keep writing articles about income inequality, climate change, foreign policy, etc. No doubt these are contributing factors, but when are we going to address the elephant in the room? This is not something that only the mentally ill can believe in. This is a mind virus that can spread. It has spread. Polls show that about 10% of Muslims worldwide support ISIS, that is 160 million people. We need to stop it from spreading, for instance by encouraging competing pacifist mind viruses of moderate Muslims, empowering people who have a personal stake against this mind virus (women, gays, intellectuals, etc), educating people about different religions and atheism, stopping people who are spreading this mind virus (there are many Salafist and Wahhabist organizations that openly operate in Europe), and stopping their money streams coming from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, provide intense personal support to refugees and immigrants to make sure they integrate into the societies in Europe and the US and to make sure they learn the language, get European and American friends, don't live in closed parallel societies, etc.

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