Amazon Shows Off New Prime Air Drone with Hybrid Design • Hacker News Board

Re: Amazon Shows Off New Prime Air Drone with Hybrid Design

#101

Post by toyg » Mon, Nov 30, 2015, 2:15 AM UTC

8ig8 wrote: post #64

mapt wrote: post #22

Here's what I think is more likely: A small regional airport is taken over by Amazon. They build hangars and warehouses onsite. It's ramped up to land and fly a big turbine-powered mothership every five minutes. The warehouse dispatches packages to stacks of delivery drones like the one pictured in the video. The mothership loads the delivery drones in order. The motherships take off regularly, and then as the mother…

As a one time hooliganish teenager, I wonder if these will become targets for slingshots (or more sophisticated surface-to-air weapons).

From the page: "Our vehicles will be built with[...] sophisticated “sense and avoid” technology"

I can see an arms race between Amazon and would-be air-pirates; I honestly don't know what the state of the art in radar technology is, but if it can be drone-mounted, then you'll need something seriously fast to hit an intelligently-dodging vehicle.

Re: Amazon Shows Off New Prime Air Drone with Hybrid Design

#102

Post by mc32 » Mon, Nov 30, 2015, 2:16 AM UTC

arjie wrote: post #67

mc32 wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This will sound a bit off kilter, but except for truly emergent situations (injury, medication, etc.) it's good to have some "friction" otherwise we could end up with a population demanding immediate satisfaction and perfection from everything, whereas many things will remain imperfect and unrealized. Why can't my government change right now the way I want it! Why are they serving someone else in need and not me! I h…

Why shouldn't we demand immediate perfection? Why should we have to choose between serving someone else and serving me? Why shouldn't governments immediately change? All the problems with having these things today are implementation problems not fundamental issues.

We want a delay between what we think we want and what we get from government, else we get majority rules democracy which is not far removed from mob-mentality government.

Re: Amazon Shows Off New Prime Air Drone with Hybrid Design

#103

Post by mschuster91 » Mon, Nov 30, 2015, 2:20 AM UTC

mnglkhn2 wrote: post #91

mapt wrote: post #22

Here's what I think is more likely: A small regional airport is taken over by Amazon. They build hangars and warehouses onsite. It's ramped up to land and fly a big turbine-powered mothership every five minutes. The warehouse dispatches packages to stacks of delivery drones like the one pictured in the video. The mothership loads the delivery drones in order. The motherships take off regularly, and then as the mother…

I believe your scenarios (especially the "truck dispenser") address the market Amazon has in mind: the suburbia. If you notice, both video examples show the drone delivering at a house. It seems obvious that an urban setting is difficult to address. And actually delivery costs are higher in the suburbs, due to population spread, than in the cities. The interesting thing is how do UPS/FedEx/USPS feel about this, consi…

USPS won't care, their (legally protected) business is shipping letters.

Re: Amazon Shows Off New Prime Air Drone with Hybrid Design

#104

Post by kriro » Mon, Nov 30, 2015, 2:32 AM UTC

My major takeaway is that they are trying to push as close to instant delivery as possible (30 minutes seems like pretty remarkable goal). Potentially taking out the delivery service middleman is also good. I have my doubts (regulation, security concerns, social doubt a la Google glass) but overall it seems like a good long term strategy to try this.

If they ever come close to hitting the 30 minute delivery it also opens up the entire food delivery industry as a potential Amazon extension. Buying one of these "premade meal delivery" startups could also be an option.

Re: Amazon Shows Off New Prime Air Drone with Hybrid Design

#105

Post by orasis » Mon, Nov 30, 2015, 2:55 AM UTC

The big question is: How loud are the drones? Every quad-rotor I've been around is too loud for the average upscale neighborhood that these will be delivering to.

Re: Amazon Shows Off New Prime Air Drone with Hybrid Design

#106

Post by TeMPOraL » Mon, Nov 30, 2015, 2:57 AM UTC

toyg wrote: post #101

8ig8 wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a one time hooliganish teenager, I wonder if these will become targets for slingshots (or more sophisticated surface-to-air weapons).

From the page: "Our vehicles will be built with[...] sophisticated “sense and avoid” technology" I can see an arms race between Amazon and would-be air-pirates; I honestly don't know what the state of the art in radar technology is, but if it can be drone-mounted, then you'll need something seriously fast to hit an intelligently-dodging vehicle.

Google showcased a radar-on-a-chip during the last IO; it looks exactly like something that could be fit onto a drone and provide short-range monitoring for incoming objects. The issue would be drone's reaction time though, especially when carrying heavy load.

As for hitting an intelligently-dodging vehicle - ever tried to throw a stick at a pigeon? I obviously don't recommend doing that, though I have some personal experience from the time when I was 9 years old, and I can tell you that suckers are damn good at avoiding projectiles. I doubt drones will reach that level of performance within next year or three, so for now, if you have something you could hit a pigeon with, you'll definitely be able to take a drone down with it.

Re: Amazon Shows Off New Prime Air Drone with Hybrid Design

#107

Post by zootam » Mon, Nov 30, 2015, 3:07 AM UTC

toyg wrote: post #97

blazespin wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with the last one, but ground delivery robots would make way more sense. I don't know about 30-60 minutes, however. The soccer shoe emergency can't really be that big of a market. Emergency medicine by drone delivery I get, but the reason people go shopping nowadays is either grocery or an excuse to get out of the house. Drones are never going to eliminate the excuse to get out of the house factor.

One word (well, acronym): DIY. Middle-class suburban dad is trying to fix the newly-bought house, but he's constantly running out of the right size of screws and/or stuff he didn't even know he needed. At the moment that scenario results in a a lot of trips to the hardware store, but cheap 60-minute deliveries would change it for the better. Neonatal supplies, cleaning supplies, you name it -- the sort of thing you r…

lol delivering a physical game

Re: Amazon Shows Off New Prime Air Drone with Hybrid Design

#108

Post by toyg » Mon, Nov 30, 2015, 3:10 AM UTC

zootam wrote: post #107

toyg wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One word (well, acronym): DIY. Middle-class suburban dad is trying to fix the newly-bought house, but he's constantly running out of the right size of screws and/or stuff he didn't even know he needed. At the moment that scenario results in a a lot of trips to the hardware store, but cheap 60-minute deliveries would change it for the better. Neonatal supplies, cleaning supplies, you name it -- the sort of thing you r…

lol delivering a physical game

Ever tried to download a boardgame / tabletop? It's hard :)

Re: Amazon Shows Off New Prime Air Drone with Hybrid Design

#109

Post by zootam » Mon, Nov 30, 2015, 3:13 AM UTC

schiffern wrote: post #31

mapt wrote: post #22

Here's what I think is more likely: A small regional airport is taken over by Amazon. They build hangars and warehouses onsite. It's ramped up to land and fly a big turbine-powered mothership every five minutes. The warehouse dispatches packages to stacks of delivery drones like the one pictured in the video. The mothership loads the delivery drones in order. The motherships take off regularly, and then as the mother…

>Because very small planes are only a small multiple (2-5x) more efficient than VTOL flight. Seems like a longer wingspan is the simple answer, no?

its a delicate and complex balancing act of weight, lift, drag, and thrust of both the airframe and any rotors, and the power output and energy stored aboard the craft.

longer wingspan means greater lift, allowing more payload, but also means more drag, and the additional payload and longer wings also increase the mass of the craft- leading to greater power requirements, which means more powerful motors, larger rotors, and larger batteries, which are also heavier.

The point is, drone/aircraft design and logistics like this cannot be solved with a simple answer like "longer wingspan".

How much longer? What about all the cascading effects on all the other aspects of the craft? This all needs to be addressed and optimized to be implemented properly.

Re: Amazon Shows Off New Prime Air Drone with Hybrid Design

#110

Post by zootam » Mon, Nov 30, 2015, 3:21 AM UTC

petersouth wrote: post #21

I think there's gonna be alot of teenage pranks and destruction. People setting the landing spot in the water or people stealing them with nets. Not sure if much recourse unless there camera footage or gps locator.

No way. There will definitely be camera footage- multiple cameras on the drone getting multiple angles- and more importantly, from other drones.

Along with several GPS devices on each drone, each with redundant power supplies.