Pharma's Bizarre Pricing Shrug
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Pharma's Bizarre Pricing Shrug
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Re: Pharma's Bizarre Pricing Shrug
#2Gene therapies may cost hundreds of thousands of dollars, or more than $1 million, for one-time treatments. Companies are pouring resources into developing more such drugs, with no real thought to who will pay for them, or how, and no acknowledgement that the current pricing model can't expand infinitely.
I wonder if it's reasonable to expect something like Moore's Law for gene therapy?
A 1980s Cray supercomputer cost over $1 million. Today the same amount of computing power is available in the cheapest Android phone you can find.
If the same trajectory applies for gene therapy, it won't be about finding more million-dollar payers. Only those with the most serious chronic diseases will pay for it now, but in 30 years, all of us will have gene therapy for what today would seem like trivial alterations.
Re: Pharma's Bizarre Pricing Shrug
#3Gene therapies may cost hundreds of thousands of dollars, or more than $1 million, for one-time treatments. Companies are pouring resources into developing more such drugs, with no real thought to who will pay for them, or how, and no acknowledgement that the current pricing model can't expand infinitely. I wonder if it's reasonable to expect something like Moore's Law for gene therapy? A 1980s Cray supercomputer cos…
It's absolutely what will happen (see wind, solar energy or anything that has ever caused market shifts) - in fact, it's pretty incredible that the article doesn't acknowledge this. If the argument was about whether or not prices would drop fast enough, that would have been cogent.
Re: Pharma's Bizarre Pricing Shrug
#4Gene therapies may cost hundreds of thousands of dollars, or more than $1 million, for one-time treatments. Companies are pouring resources into developing more such drugs, with no real thought to who will pay for them, or how, and no acknowledgement that the current pricing model can't expand infinitely. I wonder if it's reasonable to expect something like Moore's Law for gene therapy? A 1980s Cray supercomputer cos…
It's absolutely what will happen (see wind, solar energy or anything that has ever caused market shifts) - in fact, it's pretty incredible that the article doesn't acknowledge this. If the argument was about whether or not prices would drop fast enough, that would have been cogent.
you may not be familiar with how healthcare works. There is, generally, almost no price pressure. In fact, consumers of healthcare, because they aren't paying for it, often equate higher price with higher quality so I wouldn't bet on the prices going down
Re: Pharma's Bizarre Pricing Shrug
#5Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's absolutely what will happen (see wind, solar energy or anything that has ever caused market shifts) - in fact, it's pretty incredible that the article doesn't acknowledge this. If the argument was about whether or not prices would drop fast enough, that would have been cogent.
you may not be familiar with how healthcare works. There is, generally, almost no price pressure. In fact, consumers of healthcare, because they aren't paying for it, often equate higher price with higher quality so I wouldn't bet on the prices going down
but with medical tourism becoming more reliable and trusted, as well as companies hq'd in countries unencumbered by our insistence on patents for biology, it's likely this is where another country takes the "top" spot from the US. China, Brazil, and India all seems like good potentials.
Re: Pharma's Bizarre Pricing Shrug
#6Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's absolutely what will happen (see wind, solar energy or anything that has ever caused market shifts) - in fact, it's pretty incredible that the article doesn't acknowledge this. If the argument was about whether or not prices would drop fast enough, that would have been cogent.
you may not be familiar with how healthcare works. There is, generally, almost no price pressure. In fact, consumers of healthcare, because they aren't paying for it, often equate higher price with higher quality so I wouldn't bet on the prices going down
> There is, generally, almost no price pressure.
That's not actually true. There's tons of price pressure, but it all happens behind the scenes, and in a way that's invisible to patients.
The way payments are structured, downward price pressure on suppliers may even correspond to an increase in the (apparent) out-of-pocket cost to patients. That doesn't mean that the overall amount that the manufacturers are getting paid isn't decreasing, though.
Re: Pharma's Bizarre Pricing Shrug
#7Gene therapies may cost hundreds of thousands of dollars, or more than $1 million, for one-time treatments. Companies are pouring resources into developing more such drugs, with no real thought to who will pay for them, or how, and no acknowledgement that the current pricing model can't expand infinitely. I wonder if it's reasonable to expect something like Moore's Law for gene therapy? A 1980s Cray supercomputer cos…
It's absolutely what will happen (see wind, solar energy or anything that has ever caused market shifts) - in fact, it's pretty incredible that the article doesn't acknowledge this. If the argument was about whether or not prices would drop fast enough, that would have been cogent.
The market for computers seems obvious. The market for gene therapy is less obvious.
Re: Pharma's Bizarre Pricing Shrug
#8Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's absolutely what will happen (see wind, solar energy or anything that has ever caused market shifts) - in fact, it's pretty incredible that the article doesn't acknowledge this. If the argument was about whether or not prices would drop fast enough, that would have been cogent.
The market for computers seems obvious. The market for gene therapy is less obvious.
The market for computers is obvious now because there is a market for computers.
The market for computers 40 years ago was far from obvious. Even 25 years ago, most people weren't really sure if this whole internet thing was going to amount to much. 15 years ago, people scoffed at the idea that the future of the internet was mobile phones.
Predictions are hard. Especially about the future.
Re: Pharma's Bizarre Pricing Shrug
#9Worst case scenario:
People will be getting screened earlier and earlier. They will be told they have a horrible disease but there is nothing they can do about it because it is too expensive. The mortality rates from the major killers like heart disease and cancer will drop. This will not be a good sign though. The mortality rates from suicide and poisoning from attempts at self medication will rise. The deaths will just be moved from one to the other category, giving the false appearance of effective and safe treatments.
Re: Pharma's Bizarre Pricing Shrug
#10Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's absolutely what will happen (see wind, solar energy or anything that has ever caused market shifts) - in fact, it's pretty incredible that the article doesn't acknowledge this. If the argument was about whether or not prices would drop fast enough, that would have been cogent.
you may not be familiar with how healthcare works. There is, generally, almost no price pressure. In fact, consumers of healthcare, because they aren't paying for it, often equate higher price with higher quality so I wouldn't bet on the prices going down
Health consumers are rarely the customers, though; providers' customers are actually the carriers, and the customers make the market in healthcare. The asymmetry in price signaling between patients and carriers causes, as you point out, weird distortions in the market. (It doesn't help that price transparency for patients is basically zero.)