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Fuel for nuclear bomb in hands of unknown Russian black marketeer, officials say

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Re: Fuel for nuclear bomb in hands of unknown Russian black marketeer, officials say

#101
I don't mean to engage in conspiranoia here (and I highly doubt there's an overt conspiratorial explanation), but right now I'm finding 'murmurs' like this especially alarming.

When I look back at history, it seems like major economic turmoil is very often followed by outbreaks of major warfare or at the very least significant flirtations with major conflict. The Great Depression was followed by WWII, the decline toward the end of the 60s by the hottest period of Vietnam, the dot.com crash by 9/11 and Iraq, and the 2008 crash by the Ukraine crisis and what seems to have been a near miss between the USA, Russia, and possibly other powers. 2008 was also followed fairly shortly by the rise of ISIS and a re-heating of Iraq and its general region.

We're hearing a lot about an impending emerging market debt crisis, and we know China has gone to 'heroic' efforts to backstop its stock market and real estate markets against the first stages of what appeared to be an unfolding crash. It's entirely possible that another economic crisis is brewing in China and other 'emerging' markets, and it could be a bad one. If that's the case at some point it will exceed the ability of even China's autocracy to prevent it with currency and market manipulations.

As I led off with above, I doubt that there's an overt decision that happens. I doubt anyone says 'well, the economy's down so we better have a war!' Instead I suspect it's a bit like tectonic plates. When an economic crash happens it exacerbates stresses that are already present in the system and quite likely pushes some people and/or state actors over the edge. People often behave more desperately and irrationally under economic stress; you can see this in the willingness of former Soviet officials to actually distribute such deadly material during the waning days of the USSR. Not being able to eat is a powerful motivator.

Edit: not deleting this, but I hate to have posted it hours before hearing about Paris.

Re: Fuel for nuclear bomb in hands of unknown Russian black marketeer, officials say

#102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which they did at enormous cost in lives and money. Ditto for Belgium in 1914. If you had said Czechoslovakia in 1938 that would have been a much better example.

How can you call fighting to save their own damn asses only after they were attacked by Germany coming to Poland's aid?

At that stage the UK had no reason to declare war on Germany other than our promise to Poland. We could have sat back and just watched things play out. Indeed Hilter thought that we would do exactly that.

(Bear in mind that there was not evidence of the holocaust for another 2 years. The huge (and real) moral basis of the European side of the second world war was largely discovered post facto.)

Re: Fuel for nuclear bomb in hands of unknown Russian black marketeer, officials say

#103
post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which they did at enormous cost in lives and money. Ditto for Belgium in 1914. If you had said Czechoslovakia in 1938 that would have been a much better example.

When did the UK and France aid Poland after the 1939 invasion? The timeline is something like: 1939 - Poland gets conquered by Germany and the USSR. 1941 - The USSR-occupied part of Poland gets conquered by Germany. 1944-45 - German-occupied Poland gets conquered by the USSR. 1989 - Poland reasserts independence as the USSR slowly collapses from within. As far as I'm aware, no significant British or American forces g…

1939 we declared war. We had virtually no army at the time and virtually no air force. Certainly nothing that could have defeated Hilter's forces.

Re: Fuel for nuclear bomb in hands of unknown Russian black marketeer, officials say

#104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> many ex-soviet states (i.e. Ukraine) were stuck with a nuclear arsenal they couldn't maintain and didn't want. An important side point: Ukraine definitely wanted nuclear weapons, in particular as a viable threat against being re-annexed by Russia. Ukraine gave them up only after receiving a solemn promise by the US and UK that they would protect Ukraine's territorial integrity. "On December 5, 1994 the leaders of U…

Remind me never to sign a memorandum with Britain or America...

The UK has learned a valuable lesson. We entered the first world war due to a treaty guaranteeing Belgium's safety and the second due to a similar guarantee to Poland.

Re: Fuel for nuclear bomb in hands of unknown Russian black marketeer, officials say

#105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is curious -- it's not like enriching Uranium is easy. It's a very expensive process with incredibly low yields if I understand it correctly.

The USSR and the US have enriched probably a million tons of it by now, the EU has enrichment capacity of about 20,000 tSWU which they used to enrich Uranium to about 4% (some to higher levels for research/breeders/medical plants). They are the 2nd largest producer of low and high level of enriched Uranium in the world, and also due to various security blunders also helped to proliferate nuclear technology. It's expe…

> The nuclear deal with Iran pretty much means that they'll need to enrich Uranium for 2-5 years then run their reactor for 6 months till it burns out and repeat which is obviously nonsensical.

So the deal was just for show? Surely both sides are aware of this specific issue?

Re: Fuel for nuclear bomb in hands of unknown Russian black marketeer, officials say

#106
post #59

If western intelligence knows about this and wants to get it off the black market, why don't they just buy it themselves? Surely the criminals selling it don't care where the money comes from.

I know.

Make a standing offer: the US will give a 110% price match for these materials, no questions asked, or between the US and Russian security services we'll do our best to shoot you in the head. Choose.

Re: Fuel for nuclear bomb in hands of unknown Russian black marketeer, officials say

#107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which they did at enormous cost in lives and money. Ditto for Belgium in 1914. If you had said Czechoslovakia in 1938 that would have been a much better example.

>Which they did at enormous cost in lives and money. They half assed tried it by declaring war on germany without actually starting the war. But they let the USSR--which also invaded Poland--keep the country after the war.

Yeah, USSR got to keep the part of Poland they invaded. But the treaty between Poland, UK and France only covered aid against a German invasion, so that treaty was honored in the end. In any case, UK and France were not strong enough to beat Germany without help from the USSR.

Re: Fuel for nuclear bomb in hands of unknown Russian black marketeer, officials say

#108
post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When did the UK and France aid Poland after the 1939 invasion? The timeline is something like: 1939 - Poland gets conquered by Germany and the USSR. 1941 - The USSR-occupied part of Poland gets conquered by Germany. 1944-45 - German-occupied Poland gets conquered by the USSR. 1989 - Poland reasserts independence as the USSR slowly collapses from within. As far as I'm aware, no significant British or American forces g…

1939 we declared war. We had virtually no army at the time and virtually no air force. Certainly nothing that could have defeated Hilter's forces.

That would be a reason why they didn't help Poland, not something that made it so that they did help Poland (as was claimed above).

I also don't believe that's true. At the time, the French had about 5 million men, 4,200 tanks, 11,000 guns, and 3,000 airplanes. The Germans had about 4 million men, 3,500 tanks, 7,000 guns, and 4,000 airplanes. That's rough parity, not even counting the UK's potential contribution. And the German army was busy subduing Poland in the east, so there wouldn't have been a whole lot available to defend against an attack from the west.

Re: Fuel for nuclear bomb in hands of unknown Russian black marketeer, officials say

#109
post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In practice, there was an initial period of everything that wasn't bolted down disappearing from silos, and the response was to fill them with concrete to prevent any further access. What then happened is gangs came in the dead of night with diggers and drills and unearthed silos, and took who knows what. Yeah, and it wasn't just in the silos, either. The notorious arms smuggler Viktor Bout ( https://en.wikipedia.o…

back at the time even military ships in active service (not in conservation) lost a lot of electronic hardware - the Soviet electronics was "rich" in various valuable metals - and of course various cabling and wires connecting that electronics. Some of those few new Navy ships what were being built at the time had the same electronic hardware delivered several times as it was stolen right after installation (or even…

> USSR had 40000 nuclear warheards. Sure there should had been a couple lost

Unable to find a fence. Even I could fence gold and silver or copper. Rare earths would have me scratching my head a bit, but I could probably figure it out.

Uranium or plutonium? How would I even start? I'd have to try to sell to North Korea, Iran, or Pakistan or who else? How would I even come into contact with the appropriate people?

Re: Fuel for nuclear bomb in hands of unknown Russian black marketeer, officials say

#110
post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> many ex-soviet states (i.e. Ukraine) were stuck with a nuclear arsenal they couldn't maintain and didn't want. An important side point: Ukraine definitely wanted nuclear weapons, in particular as a viable threat against being re-annexed by Russia. Ukraine gave them up only after receiving a solemn promise by the US and UK that they would protect Ukraine's territorial integrity. "On December 5, 1994 the leaders of U…

It is a weirdly common misconception that the agreement in question requires the US and UK to protect Ukraine's territorial integrity. All it does is require them to respect it. This is the actual wording, taken from your link: "The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against…

The whole crux is the line you've left as a parenthetical.

"The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to seek immediate United Nations Security Council action to provide assistance to Ukraine, as a non-nuclear-weapon State party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, if Ukraine should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used."

How could a country be militarily attacked by a nuclear-weapons-armed state (Russia) and yet not be threatened by nuclear weapons? Because Russia pinky swears they won't use them?

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