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Fuel for nuclear bomb in hands of unknown Russian black marketeer, officials say

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Re: Fuel for nuclear bomb in hands of unknown Russian black marketeer, officials say

#91

Post by throwaway2048 »

DanielBMarkham wrote: post #60
mattkevan wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some friends spent time volunteering at a charity in Russia in the early/mid 90s. When they went out, the charity had just been given an entire army base. Everything was left except the weapons – equipment, uniforms, personnel files, the lot. If that's what a charity managed to acquire through official means, it's quite scary to think what others might have got their hands on. And my friends got some very warm hats.

It was -- and is -- an insane period of time to live through. What concerns me is that during the last days of the old Soviet Union, they knew the jig was up. They knew it was all falling apart. So they started hiding stuff. Everywhere. Papers were destroyed. Chemical and biological weapons were taken out and buried. So there's one problem with "dangerous stuff we know about and we're worried that it's not being prot…

luckily almost all biological and chemical weapons are not stable, and quickly degrade without sophisticated storage.

This is especially true of the most nasty stuff (nerve gas, viral agents, etc), which can break down within days of lacking precisely controlled refridgeration.

Re: Fuel for nuclear bomb in hands of unknown Russian black marketeer, officials say

#92

Post by trhway »

smacktoward wrote: post #68
madaxe_again wrote: post #17

So, when the USSR disbanded, many ex-soviet states (i.e. Ukraine) were stuck with a nuclear arsenal they couldn't maintain and didn't want. In theory, Russia took the warheads back and looked after them. In practice, there was an initial period of everything that wasn't bolted down disappearing from silos, and the response was to fill them with concrete to prevent any further access. What then happened is gangs came…

> In practice, there was an initial period of everything that wasn't bolted down disappearing from silos, and the response was to fill them with concrete to prevent any further access. What then happened is gangs came in the dead of night with diggers and drills and unearthed silos, and took who knows what. Yeah, and it wasn't just in the silos, either. The notorious arms smuggler Viktor Bout ( https://en.wikipedia.o…

back at the time even military ships in active service (not in conservation) lost a lot of electronic hardware - the Soviet electronics was "rich" in various valuable metals - and of course various cabling and wires connecting that electronics. Some of those few new Navy ships what were being built at the time had the same electronic hardware delivered several times as it was stolen right after installation (or even before, while stored at or near the ship waiting to be installed)

Actually, it is un-explainable miracle to me - a Russian who has lived there and saw what was happening at the end of 198x and through the 199x - that the world's black markets weren't flooded with USSR nukes and related materials. USSR had 40000 nuclear warheards. Sure there should had been a couple lost :)

Re: Fuel for nuclear bomb in hands of unknown Russian black marketeer, officials say

#93

Post by Animats »

HillaryBriss wrote: post #84
madaxe_again wrote: post #17

So, when the USSR disbanded, many ex-soviet states (i.e. Ukraine) were stuck with a nuclear arsenal they couldn't maintain and didn't want. In theory, Russia took the warheads back and looked after them. In practice, there was an initial period of everything that wasn't bolted down disappearing from silos, and the response was to fill them with concrete to prevent any further access. What then happened is gangs came…

Wait. Radioactive copper in the global electronics supply chain? What strategies can an average joe use to minimize exposure to that?

Radioactive copper can't stay radioactive long. The longest-lived isotope is 64Cu, with a half life of 12 hours.

Mildly radioactive junk is not that rare. Stanford used to have a little fenced area near the toxic waste incinerator with stainless steel parts left over from accelerator experiments cooling off. 55Fe has a 2.7 year half life, so you let it cool off for a decade or so, then recycle. The only protection was an chain-link fence, a radiation warning trefoil, and a street light. One day somebody cut the fence and stole the stainless steel, prompting a search of scrapyards. But the metal was near the end of its storage period anyway, and wasn't detectable as radioactive.

Re: Fuel for nuclear bomb in hands of unknown Russian black marketeer, officials say

#94

Post by mikeash »

jessriedel wrote: post #44
madaxe_again wrote: post #17

So, when the USSR disbanded, many ex-soviet states (i.e. Ukraine) were stuck with a nuclear arsenal they couldn't maintain and didn't want. In theory, Russia took the warheads back and looked after them. In practice, there was an initial period of everything that wasn't bolted down disappearing from silos, and the response was to fill them with concrete to prevent any further access. What then happened is gangs came…

> many ex-soviet states (i.e. Ukraine) were stuck with a nuclear arsenal they couldn't maintain and didn't want. An important side point: Ukraine definitely wanted nuclear weapons, in particular as a viable threat against being re-annexed by Russia. Ukraine gave them up only after receiving a solemn promise by the US and UK that they would protect Ukraine's territorial integrity. "On December 5, 1994 the leaders of U…

It is a weirdly common misconception that the agreement in question requires the US and UK to protect Ukraine's territorial integrity. All it does is require them to respect it. This is the actual wording, taken from your link:

"The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defence or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations."

Basically, everybody involved pledged not to attack Ukraine. They made no pledge to protect Ukraine from other attackers. The only signatory who has violated the agreement here is Russia. The agreement does not require the US or the UK to protect Ukraine from Russia.

(Strictly speaking they are required to ask the UN to defend Ukraine if they are attacked or threatened by nuclear weapons, but that hasn't happened.)

Re: Fuel for nuclear bomb in hands of unknown Russian black marketeer, officials say

#95

Post by mikeash »

trhway wrote: post #92
smacktoward wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In practice, there was an initial period of everything that wasn't bolted down disappearing from silos, and the response was to fill them with concrete to prevent any further access. What then happened is gangs came in the dead of night with diggers and drills and unearthed silos, and took who knows what. Yeah, and it wasn't just in the silos, either. The notorious arms smuggler Viktor Bout ( https://en.wikipedia.o…

back at the time even military ships in active service (not in conservation) lost a lot of electronic hardware - the Soviet electronics was "rich" in various valuable metals - and of course various cabling and wires connecting that electronics. Some of those few new Navy ships what were being built at the time had the same electronic hardware delivered several times as it was stolen right after installation (or even…

Maybe it's harder to rationalize letting a nuke get into the wrong hands. Stuff like this is usually rationalized with something like, "Why should I do the right thing? It doesn't help me any, and nobody gets hurt, or at least the people who get hurt are far away." But even an idiot might pause and think about the possibility that their life might be negatively affected if they end up starting a global thermonuclear war.

Re: Fuel for nuclear bomb in hands of unknown Russian black marketeer, officials say

#96

Post by [deleted] »

smacktoward wrote: post #61
tptacek wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You think a shooting war between the US and Russia, or nuclear brinksmanship between Ukraine and Russia, would be preferable to what's happened instead?

The argument would be that certainty of an invasion of Ukraine prompting an American military response, or a Ukrainian nuclear one, would have deterred the Russians from carrying out the invasion in the first place. This is of course arguable, since it rests on a counterfactual. But given the pains Russia took to camouflage their invasion as a domestic uprising (see http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26532154 ), it…

[deleted]

Re: Fuel for nuclear bomb in hands of unknown Russian black marketeer, officials say

#97

Post by vkou »

rhino369 wrote: post #81
bradleyjg wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which they did at enormous cost in lives and money. Ditto for Belgium in 1914. If you had said Czechoslovakia in 1938 that would have been a much better example.

>Which they did at enormous cost in lives and money. They half assed tried it by declaring war on germany without actually starting the war. But they let the USSR--which also invaded Poland--keep the country after the war.

As the saying goes, possession is nine tenths of the law. Doubly true when said possession is enforced by the largest military in the world.

Re: Fuel for nuclear bomb in hands of unknown Russian black marketeer, officials say

#98

Post by api »

showerst wrote: post #23
BowBun wrote: post #6

I'm interested in how technically difficult building an actual nuclear weapon would be if you got your hands on one of these samples. The idea that crazy islamic extremists could one day get their hands on this uranium and cause significant, extended damage is truly terrifying.

In the 60's the government enlisted two fresh physics PHDs to see if they could design a plausible bomb, as a stand in a random country. In they end they succeeded in creating a detailed plan, and it didn't even take them that long. There's much more public info out there now, and machining has improved significantly in the past 50 years, so the main barrier to building a crude bomb is material rather than the expert…

You could probably 3d print a device now to a high degree of precision, after modeling it in SolidWorks.

Re: Fuel for nuclear bomb in hands of unknown Russian black marketeer, officials say

#99

Post by mikeash »

bradleyjg wrote: post #67
TeMPOraL wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ukraine itself didn't learn from what happened to Poland in 1939. We had treaties that said we're to be aided by France and the UK...

Which they did at enormous cost in lives and money. Ditto for Belgium in 1914. If you had said Czechoslovakia in 1938 that would have been a much better example.

When did the UK and France aid Poland after the 1939 invasion?

The timeline is something like:

1939 - Poland gets conquered by Germany and the USSR.

1941 - The USSR-occupied part of Poland gets conquered by Germany.

1944-45 - German-occupied Poland gets conquered by the USSR.

1989 - Poland reasserts independence as the USSR slowly collapses from within.

As far as I'm aware, no significant British or American forces got anywhere near Poland as part of any of this.

Re: Fuel for nuclear bomb in hands of unknown Russian black marketeer, officials say

#100

Post by kazinator »

mikeash wrote: post #99
bradleyjg wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which they did at enormous cost in lives and money. Ditto for Belgium in 1914. If you had said Czechoslovakia in 1938 that would have been a much better example.

When did the UK and France aid Poland after the 1939 invasion? The timeline is something like: 1939 - Poland gets conquered by Germany and the USSR. 1941 - The USSR-occupied part of Poland gets conquered by Germany. 1944-45 - German-occupied Poland gets conquered by the USSR. 1989 - Poland reasserts independence as the USSR slowly collapses from within. As far as I'm aware, no significant British or American forces g…

Not only that, but I think it was due to an explicit deal with the USSR to stay away from there so they can have Poland and Czechoslovakia.

They deliberately let the Germans go in there and kill the local uprisings, so that the USSR could then move in and take what is left.

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