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Why the Web Won't Be Nirvana (1995)

newsweek.com

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Re: Why the Web Won't Be Nirvana (1995)

#11

Post by notahacker »

Nadya wrote: post #2

Amazing how much everything has changed in 20 years as to make nearly every single sentence of this article wrong to a hilarious extent. Thank you for sharing this. It didn't tickle my intellectual curiosity, but it's a nice reminder of how bad humans can be at predicting even short-term changes. :)

Whilst it was spectacularly wrong on ecommerce[1], the description of Usenet and the "fawning techno-burble about virtual communities" still sounds suspiciously like the gap between the reality and the fantasy of social today, notwithstanding the greater participation and the decent stab at contextualising the "cacophony" in ways specific to the needs of advertisers and brand-monitors.

But apparently he also wrote a book-length version including further predictions about the unlikelihood of computers becoming merged with his telephone, the universal nature of fax machines making them far more practical than email and the practical unlikelihood of Big Brother scenarios. They should probably rerelease it as one of those eBooks he predicted wouldn't take off.

[1]even the author now sells stuff over the internet, though I'm willing to bet there's not much of a market for "one sided bottles"

Re: Why the Web Won't Be Nirvana (1995)

#13

Post by RexRollman »

api wrote: post #9
n7c3c1 wrote: post #8

I wonder what the equivalent of this is today. What are people saying will NEVER happen? Maybe self-driving cars?

Cryptocurrency for real-world mainstream commerce would get my vote. That will NEVER happen. It's only for buying pot, right?

My viewpoint is that things like Bitcoin are little more than cryptographically engineered Monopoly Money. That said, I do believe that eventually, paper money will go away (if for no other reason than to track every purpose for government surveillance).

Re: Why the Web Won't Be Nirvana (1995)

#14

Post by gnaritas »

RexRollman wrote: post #13
api wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cryptocurrency for real-world mainstream commerce would get my vote. That will NEVER happen. It's only for buying pot, right?

My viewpoint is that things like Bitcoin are little more than cryptographically engineered Monopoly Money. That said, I do believe that eventually, paper money will go away (if for no other reason than to track every purpose for government surveillance).

> My viewpoint is that things like Bitcoin are little more than cryptographically engineered Monopoly Money.

Exactly like USD and all other first world currencies. Bitcoin is simply the next step in money.

Re: Why the Web Won't Be Nirvana (1995)

#15

Post by jsnk »

I welcome these kind of bold predictions, and unfortunately we see this less and less nowadays. Perhaps it's because it's easier to get called out than before with all the claims you make online nowadays being pretty much be set in stone.

Anyways, I would enjoy reading bold predictions about the future that's falsifiable rather than wishy-washy useless articles titled "7 reasons why Uber is winning." or "Why less users are joining Twitter."

Re: Why the Web Won't Be Nirvana (1995)

#17

Post by api »

Nadya wrote: post #2

Amazing how much everything has changed in 20 years as to make nearly every single sentence of this article wrong to a hilarious extent. Thank you for sharing this. It didn't tickle my intellectual curiosity, but it's a nice reminder of how bad humans can be at predicting even short-term changes. :)

He was right about at least once major thing: tele-presence is largely a failure. It's 2015 and most of the Internet industry is concentrated within the Bay Area because people need to be near one another to interact richly. This is a direct demonstration of the failure of the Internet to permit truly rich long range human communication; the very people who build it can't use it to escape their local rent bubble despite strong economic incentive to do so.

Re: Why the Web Won't Be Nirvana (1995)

#18

Post by api »

RexRollman wrote: post #13
api wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cryptocurrency for real-world mainstream commerce would get my vote. That will NEVER happen. It's only for buying pot, right?

My viewpoint is that things like Bitcoin are little more than cryptographically engineered Monopoly Money. That said, I do believe that eventually, paper money will go away (if for no other reason than to track every purpose for government surveillance).

I deliberately said cryptocurrency not Bitcoin, since I view Bitcoin as an alpha version of distributed digital money.

Re: Why the Web Won't Be Nirvana (1995)

#20

Post by wvenable »

api wrote: post #17
Nadya wrote: post #2

Amazing how much everything has changed in 20 years as to make nearly every single sentence of this article wrong to a hilarious extent. Thank you for sharing this. It didn't tickle my intellectual curiosity, but it's a nice reminder of how bad humans can be at predicting even short-term changes. :)

He was right about at least once major thing: tele-presence is largely a failure. It's 2015 and most of the Internet industry is concentrated within the Bay Area because people need to be near one another to interact richly. This is a direct demonstration of the failure of the Internet to permit truly rich long range human communication; the very people who build it can't use it to escape their local rent bubble desp…

I don't think it's a failure, it's just not ubiquitous. We have huge tele-presense units in most of our offices to facilitate meetings that used to require plane rides and hotels.
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