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Thomas Quick: The serial killer who wasn't

telegraph.co.uk

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Re: Thomas Quick: The serial killer who wasn't

#21

Post by fasdf3asdf »

StavrosK wrote: post #11
mbrock wrote: post #6

One fascinating part of this story is Göran Lambertz, who was chancellor of justice during the trials and is now a supreme court judge. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G%C3%B6ran_Lambertz He fervently maintains that Quick is indeed guilty, and that there was nothing at all wrong with the proceedings of the justice system. In fact he claims, to this day as far as I know, that the evidence against Quick is "extraordinari…

> arrives at a probability of 183%. I don't see anything wrong with the math. It simply means that Quick is certainly guilty, with an 83% chance of being double-guilty, which is an obscure legal term I don't expect the technocrat audience of HN to be familiar with.

Reminds me of high school statistics class, when the teacher read out in class after a quiz, "[Name] answered negative 4% for the probability in question 3. This is in fact the probability that [Name] passed the quiz."

Re: Thomas Quick: The serial killer who wasn't

#22

Post by jacquesm »

StavrosK wrote: post #16
jacquesm wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you use the word 'probability' the expected range of values is 0-1 or 0 through 100%, you can't really be 'double-guilty' of anything. See also: Bayes theorem, which was formulated expressly with the idea of evaluating evidence. If I see the words 'probability' and '183%' in one sentence than as part of that audience I suspect a buggy algorithm, not a new interpretation of the word probability. If you can be doubl…

Aw, I didn't think I'd need the detestable "/s", Jacques :(

Hehe, ok then. You had me wondering there.

Re: Thomas Quick: The serial killer who wasn't

#23

Post by jacquesm »

lomnakkus wrote: post #20
jacquesm wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you use the word 'probability' the expected range of values is 0-1 or 0 through 100%, you can't really be 'double-guilty' of anything. See also: Bayes theorem, which was formulated expressly with the idea of evaluating evidence. If I see the words 'probability' and '183%' in one sentence than as part of that audience I suspect a buggy algorithm, not a new interpretation of the word probability. If you can be doubl…

I think you missed parent poster's sarcasm :).

Absolutely.

Re: Thomas Quick: The serial killer who wasn't

#24

Post by nommm-nommm »

corin_ wrote: post #10
martinald wrote: post #2

"Benzodiazepine" isn't a drug, it's a class of drugs. Really sloppy editing.

You beat me to it, I just paused reading to come moan about that before continuing. But not only that, having read a lot about benzos and have previously been prescribed a few different ones for insomnia, their effects are to quote Wikipedia "sedative, hypnotic (sleep-inducing), anxiolytic (anti-anxiety), anticonvulsant, and muscle relaxant" Unless mixed with another drug - but I'm guessing he wasn't drinking in ther…

Ok, I'll also quote Wikipedia

"The long-term effects of benzodiazepine use can include cognitive impairment as well as affective and behavioural problems. Feelings of turmoil, difficulty in thinking constructively, loss of sex-drive, agoraphobia and social phobia, increasing anxiety and depression, loss of interest in leisure pursuits and interests, and an inability to experience or express feelings can also occur. Not everyone, however, experiences problems with long-term use.[10][78] Additionally an altered perception of self, environment and relationships may occur.[77]"

Re: Thomas Quick: The serial killer who wasn't

#25

Post by purplelobster »

chris_wot wrote: post #9
mbrock wrote: post #6

One fascinating part of this story is Göran Lambertz, who was chancellor of justice during the trials and is now a supreme court judge. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G%C3%B6ran_Lambertz He fervently maintains that Quick is indeed guilty, and that there was nothing at all wrong with the proceedings of the justice system. In fact he claims, to this day as far as I know, that the evidence against Quick is "extraordinari…

Isn't Sweden the country that was trying to extradite Julian Assange? If their Supreme Court judges can come up with probabilities greater than 100%, then I seriously fear for their justice system!

Hey, at least they're trying to use math! ;) It does make me fear for our justice system, but people are people, and I've realized they're no different anywhere really. The right education can limit our faults but only to a degree.

I also believe that the government very likely has been influenced by American lobbying in the Assange case. The U.S. Is Sweden's largest export outside the EU, and obviously a large importer as well, therefore highly susceptible to pressure.

Re: Thomas Quick: The serial killer who wasn't

#26

Post by nommm-nommm »

Cederfjard wrote: post #19
kozukumi wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Indeed, and the range is rather large as well for what they cover. Most people have taken a Valium (diazepam) at some point in their life for example.

I don't know about the UK, which would have been relevant since that's where the author of the piece is from (maybe you do?), but in Sweden it's certainly not true that most people have ever had a Valium (or rather one of the brands that are marketed here). Many may not even know what they are, and if they do, they think of them as something a very ill person or a junkie might take. Swedish physicians are quite restr…

There was a time in the US where people were widely prescribed benzodiazepines for general use but doctors are generally more reluctant to prescribe them now because their long-term affects are now now well known.

Benzos work very, very well in the short term however they are usually counterproductive in the long term.

They are still used in acute medical settings. For things like drug withdraw in a medical facility and for medical procedures such as colonoscopies. They are a component in twilight anesthesia. For example, I was prescribed a benzodiazepine in an emergency room to get me to sleep because I was staying overnight in that ER however they are very rarely prescribed for insomnia at home (anymore).[1]

I'm sure Sweden uses them in acute medical settings as well because they are very effective in that role.

[1] Nonbenzodiazepine medicines known as "Z drugs" are now the widely prescribed insomnia medicines despite their downfalls and risk of dependence.

Re: Thomas Quick: The serial killer who wasn't

#27

Post by krig »

chris_wot wrote: post #9
mbrock wrote: post #6

One fascinating part of this story is Göran Lambertz, who was chancellor of justice during the trials and is now a supreme court judge. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G%C3%B6ran_Lambertz He fervently maintains that Quick is indeed guilty, and that there was nothing at all wrong with the proceedings of the justice system. In fact he claims, to this day as far as I know, that the evidence against Quick is "extraordinari…

Isn't Sweden the country that was trying to extradite Julian Assange? If their Supreme Court judges can come up with probabilities greater than 100%, then I seriously fear for their justice system!

I'm not going to comment on the Assange case itself since I don't know the details, I'm not a lawyer, and there's so much misinformation out there that it must be almost impossible even for the prosecutors to keep track of what "the case" actually is, but... indeed, the swedish justice system is in many ways archaic. I guess unjust is the best word to describe it. Basically, it's a system that has evolved over time in a country with such low crime rates that simply being charged for a crime in itself is enough to make you guilty in the eyes of the court. If I'm not mistaken, I think Japan has a similar situation, and Japanese and Swedish culture seem strangely similar in other ways too. At least to this swede.

Re: Thomas Quick: The serial killer who wasn't

#28

Post by mbrock »

krig wrote: post #27
chris_wot wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't Sweden the country that was trying to extradite Julian Assange? If their Supreme Court judges can come up with probabilities greater than 100%, then I seriously fear for their justice system!

I'm not going to comment on the Assange case itself since I don't know the details, I'm not a lawyer, and there's so much misinformation out there that it must be almost impossible even for the prosecutors to keep track of what "the case" actually is, but... indeed, the swedish justice system is in many ways archaic. I guess unjust is the best word to describe it. Basically, it's a system that has evolved over time i…

Swedish drug policy is also seriously unjust, according to the UN's Deputy High Commissioner for Human Rights.

http://www.thelocal.se/20151108/un-swedish-drug-policy-viola...

> Sweden has one of the EU's most restrictive drug policies, with zero tolerance for drug use and possession. At the same time, the rate of drug-induced deaths is among the highest in the union, and they are on the rise.

> [...] Only six out of Sweden's 290 municipalities offer needle exchange [...]

> "We always look at Sweden as a very advanced country with the most progressive policies, and I was surprised to see that it lags behind a number of other countries in terms of its policies on drugs," deputy high commissioner for human rights Flavia Pansieri told SVT.

Re: Thomas Quick: The serial killer who wasn't

#29

Post by gozo »

corin_ wrote: post #10
martinald wrote: post #2

"Benzodiazepine" isn't a drug, it's a class of drugs. Really sloppy editing.

You beat me to it, I just paused reading to come moan about that before continuing. But not only that, having read a lot about benzos and have previously been prescribed a few different ones for insomnia, their effects are to quote Wikipedia "sedative, hypnotic (sleep-inducing), anxiolytic (anti-anxiety), anticonvulsant, and muscle relaxant" Unless mixed with another drug - but I'm guessing he wasn't drinking in ther…

It wasn't like he was a stable guy taking it for insomnia. He had long history of personality disorder, including multiple personalities, and drug abuse.

"This, incidentally, is what Bergwall says was his daily intake, with extra top-ups when requested: six 5 mg. Valium, four 1 mg. Xanax, one 10 mg. prefill Valium, 1.5 mg. Halcion, two Rohypnol, six Treo comp, six Panocod."

http://www.gq.com/story/thomas-quick-serial-killer-august-20...

Re: Thomas Quick: The serial killer who wasn't

#30

Post by johansch »

chris_wot wrote: post #9
mbrock wrote: post #6

One fascinating part of this story is Göran Lambertz, who was chancellor of justice during the trials and is now a supreme court judge. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G%C3%B6ran_Lambertz He fervently maintains that Quick is indeed guilty, and that there was nothing at all wrong with the proceedings of the justice system. In fact he claims, to this day as far as I know, that the evidence against Quick is "extraordinari…

Isn't Sweden the country that was trying to extradite Julian Assange? If their Supreme Court judges can come up with probabilities greater than 100%, then I seriously fear for their justice system!

If you have to ask that question you're probably in the 96% (my estimate) that are grossly misinformed about this case, due to international media being idiotic and easily manipulated by Assange's pawns.
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