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Bitcoin Surges Past $400

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Re: Bitcoin Surges Past $400

#161

Post by dragonwriter »

TylerE wrote: post #136
_Marak_ wrote: post #20

Price surge is in direct correlation with Winklevoss "Gemini" exchange going online on October 8th. https://gemini.com/ This chart shows the price surge starting the exact same day Gemini went online: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg60ztgSzm1g10zm... I really hope this is genuine growth, but I have a sneaking suspicion it could be partially due to market manipulation by Gemini. The Winklevoss twins have…

No it isn't. Volume on Gemini is miniscule, less than 1% of the chinese exchanges.

The suggestion that it is market manipulation by the Winklevosses related to Gemini doesn't mean that its a result of action on Gemini; an effort to use existing exchanges that can support the volume to drive Bitcoin in a way that would increase public perception of the attractiveness of Bitcoin to position the sales pitch for Gemini as a "grown up" exchange isn't entirely unthinkable.

Not that I think its likely, mind you, just that "the action isn't on Gemini" isn't sufficient to rebut that the movement is related to Gemini. I think, though, that MMM still seems likely to explain more of it, and other China-specific conditions may explain more of the China-focused movement. Manipulation around Gemini, while not inconceivable, seems to be a bit more of a leap from the evidence available.

Re: Bitcoin Surges Past $400

#162

Post by jarboot »

The little pile of bitcoins I had laying around from a couple weeks ago has doubled in price. Should I spend them now in anticipation of a bubble bursting or wait for the price to possibly go up?

Re: Bitcoin Surges Past $400

#163

Post by dlsx »

clay_to_n wrote: post #155
theseatoms wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With all due respect, I don't think that's how markets work. I know that people tend to psychologically anchor to round figures, but I don't see this situation playing out as you've described.

In earlier days of remember I think I do remember this happening. Once the price got to a certain point (~980?) it very quickly would get up to 1000, and then hover there for a while. Part of this is because people will put sell requests at that round number.

He doesn't understand Chinese. When you said "ugly number" this is very important to the Chinse. They will push the price based on what number they are attached to.

If the price is 314.44 they will push it to 316.88 because that is the number they like, and if they dictate that price it is like they have created their own luck. At least this is my philosophy dealing with Chinese and watching their buy patterns.

Re: Bitcoin Surges Past $400

#164

Post by godzillabrennus »

jarboot wrote: post #162

The little pile of bitcoins I had laying around from a couple weeks ago has doubled in price. Should I spend them now in anticipation of a bubble bursting or wait for the price to possibly go up?

As with any volatile investment you should get out when you are ahead, or in need of the money. You may lose out on further gains but the likelihood of another crash is high. It's better to win than lose.

Re: Bitcoin Surges Past $400

#165

Post by erickhill »

jarboot wrote: post #162

The little pile of bitcoins I had laying around from a couple weeks ago has doubled in price. Should I spend them now in anticipation of a bubble bursting or wait for the price to possibly go up?

Oh, you should probably sell them. Just like when I sold all of my Apple stock when it shot up to $30, purchased at ~$20. :/

Re: Bitcoin Surges Past $400

#166

Post by fixermark »

dragonwriter wrote: post #157
maaku wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many times in the past bitcoin companies have been hacked, embezzled or otherwise lost user funds. There is no recourse.

> Many times in the past bitcoin companies have been hacked, embezzled or otherwise lost user funds. There is no recourse. Many times, other companies have had that happen, and there is all kinds of recourse. To the extent bitcoin companies are special, its because people participating in the bitcoin craze have been willing to entrust large amounts of value with companies that don't have the basic characteristics tha…

Given that BTC is a currency that is not backed by a national treasury (and is, in fact, technologically not backable by printing more money), such insurance would be a prohibitively expensive percentage of a company's BTC resources.

The same features of BTC that serve as its advantage and, arguably, goal make it more difficult to offer basic protections that other fiscal infrastructures have had for decades.

Re: Bitcoin Surges Past $400

#167

Post by hippich »

gwern wrote: post #159
dperfect wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There is nothing that can guarantee that this ride is real I'm not sure what you mean by "real" here. Even if demand is created from questionable/fraudulent sources, the transactions are just as real as any others. That's not to say it's sustainable or even driven by rational behavior (it never really is). Any trend, bubble or not, is just that - a trend. There may be numerous factors driving it, and it's almost ne…

You misunderstand his point. The MMM ponzi schemers presumably don't want to hold bitcoins forever, and would be selling them for local currencies; if each bitcoin bought by a MMM victim is being immediately sold by a MMM con artist, then the net effect is zero and the effect on the price is much less than however much is being laundered and the price is boosted only by the float (however much bitcoins are being held…

MMM works by constantly paying out. I.e. whole thing works as long as money circulate in the system. And as part of this circulation - people withdraw bitcoins and exchange these to local currency.

Re: Bitcoin Surges Past $400

#168

Post by maaku »

dragonwriter wrote: post #157
maaku wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many times in the past bitcoin companies have been hacked, embezzled or otherwise lost user funds. There is no recourse.

> Many times in the past bitcoin companies have been hacked, embezzled or otherwise lost user funds. There is no recourse. Many times, other companies have had that happen, and there is all kinds of recourse. To the extent bitcoin companies are special, its because people participating in the bitcoin craze have been willing to entrust large amounts of value with companies that don't have the basic characteristics tha…

What do you do when the money is gone? With other payment technology you can get court orders to freeze funds, or judgments against current holders.

Bitcoin, on the other hand, is irrevocable and pseudo-anonymous. In July 2011 the owner of MyBitcoin.com web wallet allegedly walked away with 50,000 btc of customer funds. We know where those funds are. You can see them on any block explorer. But it is not possible to freeze or confiscate those funds. And we don't know what real world person or people have access to the keys controlling those funds. So what are you going to do?

MtGox went under with 850,000 btc of customer funds. Its creditors are currently fighting over the 200,000 btc that was found to still be in possession by the company. The other 650,000 btc? Who knows.

It's just a simple fact of reality. If you don't have physical control over the keys for that bitcoin, it is not your bitcoin. Some of us have learned that lesson the hard way.

Re: Bitcoin Surges Past $400

#169

Post by _Marak_ »

dragonwriter wrote: post #161
TylerE wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No it isn't. Volume on Gemini is miniscule, less than 1% of the chinese exchanges.

The suggestion that it is market manipulation by the Winklevosses related to Gemini doesn't mean that its a result of action on Gemini; an effort to use existing exchanges that can support the volume to drive Bitcoin in a way that would increase public perception of the attractiveness of Bitcoin to position the sales pitch for Gemini as a "grown up" exchange isn't entirely unthinkable. Not that I think its likely , m…

Thank you.

I also think it's fairly unlikely, but the data points are there.

Causation versus correlation, I know. Probably it's part coincidence / part overall good press. I just found it odd that run-up started the exact day Gemini opened.

Re: Bitcoin Surges Past $400

#170

Post by maxerickson »

dragonwriter wrote: post #138
stonemetal wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In general nothing. In specific there is no FDIC for bitcoins so if a MtGox type situation happens then you have no coins.

There's no FDIC providing government backed insurance for most commodities, or for non-bank accounts in fiat currency (e.g., those you'd have with a typical brokerage), so I'm not sure bitcoin is really fundamentally different than most commodities as a speculative investment So for a speculative trader, I dont e that holding keys if any more essential than physically holding goods is for physical commodities; you ob…

It isn't quite the same as FDIC, but there is SIPC:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Securities_Investor_Protection...

Not blanket protection, but enough to ask why such and such bitcoin exchange doesn't advertise their participation.

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