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Bitcoin Surges Past $400

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Re: Bitcoin Surges Past $400

#61

Post by Marazan »

sfjailbird wrote: post #34

There is a LOT of talk about "blockchain technology" going around these days. It seems like another "cloud", i.e. some vague concept that consultants can sell to CTOs who are afraid of appearing behind the technology curve. New clothes for the emperor. Since bitcoin is the reference implementation of "blockchain technology" obviously all this interest rubs off. And since bitcoin at this point is all promise without m…

The Economist had an article of the magical wonders of the blockchain last week that kind of skimped on the downsides.

Re: Bitcoin Surges Past $400

#62

Post by hellofunk »

trymas wrote: post #15
est wrote: post #11

The China factor behind this "surge" is because this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MMM_(Ponzi_scheme_company) started doing business in China. It's growing very huge.

+1 Somehow I refuse to believe that this surge in price is natural.

Price fluctuation in tradeable products of any kind is never "natural", it is supply/demand-driven. And supply and demand are complex forces with much turbulence from a vast number of influences.

Re: Bitcoin Surges Past $400

#63

Post by mrb »

est wrote: post #11

The China factor behind this "surge" is because this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MMM_(Ponzi_scheme_company) started doing business in China. It's growing very huge.

Yes, the MMM Global ponzi scheme now requires participants to fund their account in bitcoins. This is likely what nudged the price of Bitcoin upward. Even the CEO of BTCC (China's 3rd largest Bitcoin exchange) admits it: http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-price-breaks-260-to-hit-two-...

However, at this point the Bitcoin price surge alone almost certainly ignited a Bitcoin speculative bubble that is self-sustaining and would continue even if MMM was shut down today. I mean look at a hockey stick graph like this, it's enough to trick people into thinking now is a good time to buy "because it's going up": http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg30zig6-hourztg...

This speculative bubble is taking place mostly in China right now, as all Chinese exchanges trade at a premium over American exchanges. In fact Huobi just hit 3188 CNY (503 USD): https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/huobi/btccny when most American exchange are at 460 USD —a 9% arbitrage opportunity!

Re: Bitcoin Surges Past $400

#64

Post by maxerickson »

[deleted] wrote: post #57
joosters wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh no, another "Here's a huge market. Now imagine if only 1% of them buy your product" article to add to the junk pile.

[deleted]

How is control of these bitcoin being transferred to someone who is willing to accept the controlled currency?

Presumably they would have to be in mainland China.

I guess someone who is more able to circumvent the controls traditionally might be able to move the money out and could sell bitcoin to profit from that capability.

edit: argh.

Re: Bitcoin Surges Past $400

#65

Post by jbssm »

Actually the break of price parity between China and Western exchanges is historically very bad news for bitcoin. It will mark China as purely speculative and will break ties with the only force that was keeping the price at the 300 USD level in the past months.

It's similar to what happened with MTGox. When the price parity was over (although there was always a ~1-2% premium on MtGox price) bitcoin crashed hard and never recovered.

Re: Bitcoin Surges Past $400

#66

Post by brianpetro_ »

spooningtamarin wrote: post #56

how would one trade bitcoin fast enough to profit? can one short bitcoin in a single day? last time I tried it was insanely slow to buy bitcoin, and then sell it...

Magnr give the best margins I've found, 10:1. You can short sell too.

My referral link https://www.magnr.com/?r=79019

Re: Bitcoin Surges Past $400

#67

Post by drewm1980 »

simias wrote: post #59
mikeyouse wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are thousands of videos popping up on YouTube with how much money these people have 'made' on MMM Global, it's sad to see; https://www.youtube.com/results?lclk=week&search_query=mmm+g... It's very likely a big part of the price increase, many of the local MMM sites advertise that they're bitcoin-only and all of the exchanges are extraordinarily shallow so small surges in demand really move prices. Here's a pret…

Thank you for those links. It's crazy that people are falling for this even though they reuse the MMM brand and feature Sergei Mavrodi prominently. A simple google search should tell you what you need to know about the company and the people running it. It's sad really.

I thought google wasn't doing business in China. Could be a local search engine is getting kickbacks, or a cut of a the ad revenue.

Re: Bitcoin Surges Past $400

#68

Post by peteretep »

Natanael_L wrote: post #53
peteretep wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I made an absolute killing on them last time, why not again?

Trading just for profits is no different from other kinds of gambling. Even though I like Bitcoin myself, I'm not the most risk-taking kind of person. The market price depends on the collective sentiment of every single trader, and no matter what I believe, I can't force them all to agree with me.

You're spot on that it's gambling.

My specific gamble last time was that I had an information advantage that others did not regarding Bitcoin. I sold up when that no longer felt true, and when the money had become enough that I couldn't afford to lose.

My specific gamble this time is that there is a bubble, but barriers to entry to owning Bitcoin are high enough that it still has momentum. I can afford to lose my current stake, and will stay in while I continue to feel that way, and while I remain under the UK capital gains threshold.

Re: Bitcoin Surges Past $400

#69

Post by Retric »

hellofunk wrote: post #62
trymas wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

+1 Somehow I refuse to believe that this surge in price is natural.

Price fluctuation in tradeable products of any kind is never "natural", it is supply/demand-driven. And supply and demand are complex forces with much turbulence from a vast number of influences.

Speculation is a thing. BC is still infinitesimal in terms of the global economy and even relatively tiny movements of money can underline or pop a bubble.

Re: Bitcoin Surges Past $400

#70

Post by TomGullen »

I find it ironic that if MMM is having an impact on the price, that irrational actors (people buying into MMM) are inflating the price of Bitcoin (mainly promoted by libertarians).

Anyway, the up swing is impressive now and can't be dismissed as normal volatilty: https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/bitfinex/btcusd

There will be a big drop at some point, no one really wants to sell when it's rising like this. This sort of upward movement is exactly why a lot of people have bought Bitcoin. Trying to time the top will be hard though. I imagine a subsequent drop of ~25% would be likely.

It's fun to be back at a time of thinking about when to sell again.

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