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Bitcoin Surges Past $400

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Re: Bitcoin Surges Past $400

#31
post #6

It is however less likely to be due to exchange manipulations this time because the exchanges are more diversified.

No, not really. If you can manipulate the price on one exchange, it will drag the prices in the other exchanges along with it.

MtGox's high BTC rates were too close to arbitrage until it was clear you wouldn't get your money out.

Re: Bitcoin Surges Past $400

#32
post #14
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're the kind of person who upon seeing a gun shot victim and as the coroner says, " He was killed by a bullet entering the body and piercing the heart" would shout out "Correlation does not imply causation" reflexively. Do you really not think the general population's interest in bitcoin has any effect on the price?

Or maybe price is driving the interest?

I'd agree. Buying BTC based on public interest would be too late.

I believe the public interest is sparked by the price - which is perhaps later adding additional additional price hikes sure - but the correlation is not public interest to price; I think it's the opposite, price to public interest.

Price drops - so will public interest.

Re: Bitcoin Surges Past $400

#33
post #22

Tulip bulbs! Got your tulip bulbs right here!

tulips that can be transfer digitally anywhere in the world at a low fee...

I'd like to also add:

- There is no "Federal Reserve" type entity attempting to influence BitCoin (whether that's a good thing or not, is complicated...)

- Privacy (with the help of Zerocoin)

Re: Bitcoin Surges Past $400

#34
There is a LOT of talk about "blockchain technology" going around these days. It seems like another "cloud", i.e. some vague concept that consultants can sell to CTOs who are afraid of appearing behind the technology curve. New clothes for the emperor.

Since bitcoin is the reference implementation of "blockchain technology" obviously all this interest rubs off. And since bitcoin at this point is all promise without much reality behind it (like a "pre-monetization" startup), it is a great vehicle for hype driven speculation, meaning that any price increase drives further speculation, until the next hard crash.

Re: Bitcoin Surges Past $400

#35
There is nothing that can guarantee that this ride is real, but here are a few things:

1. However big is MMM, it's probably too small for the size of the bitcoin economy right now. Remember that if you are transacting in bitcoin, there is one party buying and the other one selling. So you are not rising the price to the moon.

2. The number of transactions has been growing again as of late. It's heating at the blockchain right now ( https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions ). With 1MB, bitcoin can support less than 300k transactions a day.

3. The total output volume is jumping to crazy levels ( https://blockchain.info/charts/output-volume?timespan=all&sh... ) only seen in bubbles.

4. I have a localbitcoins post. I usually get 1-2 requests per week. In the last few days, well, I really lost count.

5. Google trends is spiking: https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin But maybe this is happening because bitcoin price is rising, not the other way around?

6. If the price is rising fast, the supply will dry because nobody wants to sell an appreciating asset. If an asset is appreciating, it'll drive demand. Which will drive the price higher.

7. Media will start talking about it. It'll drive more people. It'll drive the price more.

8. We'll see if the new fancy infrastructure that bitcoin got is rock-solid.

9. If you don't own the keys, you don't own the bitcoins.

10. It's nice, but only if you bought the dip and sold before the crash.

Re: Bitcoin Surges Past $400

#38
post #35

There is nothing that can guarantee that this ride is real, but here are a few things: 1. However big is MMM, it's probably too small for the size of the bitcoin economy right now. Remember that if you are transacting in bitcoin, there is one party buying and the other one selling. So you are not rising the price to the moon. 2. The number of transactions has been growing again as of late. It's heating at the blockch…

> However big is MMM, it's probably too small for the size of the bitcoin economy right now [...]

That's very hard to quantify, but there might well be a feedback loop involving the media which leads to a price increase caused by MMM Global.

The following Google Trends data for South Africa and the Philippines shows a nice correlation between searches for bitcoin and MMM Global: http://www.google.com/trends/explore?hl=en-US&geo=ZA&cmpt=q&...

Re: Bitcoin Surges Past $400

#39
post #11

The China factor behind this "surge" is because this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MMM_(Ponzi_scheme_company) started doing business in China. It's growing very huge.

A film (PiraMMMida) came out in 2011 depicting the rise and fall of MMM in early-90s Russia:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m-JgGV8cH1I

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1606652/

Re: Bitcoin Surges Past $400

#40
post #32
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or maybe price is driving the interest?

I'd agree. Buying BTC based on public interest would be too late. I believe the public interest is sparked by the price - which is perhaps later adding additional additional price hikes sure - but the correlation is not public interest to price; I think it's the opposite, price to public interest. Price drops - so will public interest.

Peek Bitcoin interest on Google Trends happens _prior_ to the peek bitcoin price for each previous bubble.
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