Can Detroit Beat Google to the Self-Driving Car? • Hacker News Board

Re: Can Detroit Beat Google to the Self-Driving Car?

#11

Post by slacka » Fri, Oct 30, 2015, 1:33 PM UTC

zellyn wrote: post #3

I don't understand why everyone keeps pretending there's a smooth continuum: "He says they contain GM’s road map to autonomy, starting with “Driver in charge” in 2010, progressing to “Driver mostly in charge” this year, to “Car mostly in charge” in 2020, and finally “Car in charge” in 2025." That just doesn't make sense. To my mind, there's "cruise control" as it exists today, and "car drives itself completely and sa…

> To my mind, there's "cruise control" as it exists today, and "car drives itself completely and safely even in adverse conditions". Pretending that it's safe to suddenly hand over to the human in an emergency is just crazy.

Fine but where do you draw the line? Is it still safe if "cruise control" adds speed matching, steering, lane changing, or braking? As far as safety today, when I'm on the highway, I'd rather have a Telsa on autopilot than a human driving behind me.

Pretending that it's safe or not is an issue for 2025 cars technology as there are no cars on the road that "drive itself completely and safely even in adverse conditions". Not even Google's self-driving cars are there yet. They still don't drive on in inclement weather and have a professional driver monitoring them at all times.

Re: Can Detroit Beat Google to the Self-Driving Car?

#12

Post by maxerickson » Fri, Oct 30, 2015, 1:37 PM UTC

Is it relevant who gets the tech first? I think regulation will end up having them all hit the market at about the same time.

A few minutes later: Especially regulation of hands off systems.

Re: Can Detroit Beat Google to the Self-Driving Car?

#13

Post by Shivetya » Fri, Oct 30, 2015, 1:41 PM UTC

zellyn wrote: post #3

I don't understand why everyone keeps pretending there's a smooth continuum: "He says they contain GM’s road map to autonomy, starting with “Driver in charge” in 2010, progressing to “Driver mostly in charge” this year, to “Car mostly in charge” in 2020, and finally “Car in charge” in 2025." That just doesn't make sense. To my mind, there's "cruise control" as it exists today, and "car drives itself completely and sa…

Well with technology available as it is today I think Google is going to find building the car is more difficult than creating the technology.

See its not just GM looking to do this, almost every make of components for cars is into this space so a solution is already in the pipe. however when it comes to delivering cars that people want; not what government agencies might be coerced into buying; google doesn't stand a chance.

Re: Can Detroit Beat Google to the Self-Driving Car?

#14

Post by maxerickson » Fri, Oct 30, 2015, 1:52 PM UTC

Shivetya wrote: post #13

zellyn wrote: post #3

I don't understand why everyone keeps pretending there's a smooth continuum: "He says they contain GM’s road map to autonomy, starting with “Driver in charge” in 2010, progressing to “Driver mostly in charge” this year, to “Car mostly in charge” in 2020, and finally “Car in charge” in 2025." That just doesn't make sense. To my mind, there's "cruise control" as it exists today, and "car drives itself completely and sa…

Well with technology available as it is today I think Google is going to find building the car is more difficult than creating the technology. See its not just GM looking to do this, almost every make of components for cars is into this space so a solution is already in the pipe. however when it comes to delivering cars that people want; not what government agencies might be coerced into buying; google doesn't stand…

They could license the tech. Car manufacturing isn't really an exciting business to be in.

Re: Can Detroit Beat Google to the Self-Driving Car?

#15

Post by swypych » Fri, Oct 30, 2015, 2:10 PM UTC

Shivetya wrote: post #13

zellyn wrote: post #3

I don't understand why everyone keeps pretending there's a smooth continuum: "He says they contain GM’s road map to autonomy, starting with “Driver in charge” in 2010, progressing to “Driver mostly in charge” this year, to “Car mostly in charge” in 2020, and finally “Car in charge” in 2025." That just doesn't make sense. To my mind, there's "cruise control" as it exists today, and "car drives itself completely and sa…

Well with technology available as it is today I think Google is going to find building the car is more difficult than creating the technology. See its not just GM looking to do this, almost every make of components for cars is into this space so a solution is already in the pipe. however when it comes to delivering cars that people want; not what government agencies might be coerced into buying; google doesn't stand…

I agree.

Supply chain management, government, warranty, unions (UAW), this is not an easy industry to operate within.

Re: Can Detroit Beat Google to the Self-Driving Car?

#16

Post by lallysingh » Fri, Oct 30, 2015, 2:32 PM UTC

Shivetya wrote: post #13

zellyn wrote: post #3

I don't understand why everyone keeps pretending there's a smooth continuum: "He says they contain GM’s road map to autonomy, starting with “Driver in charge” in 2010, progressing to “Driver mostly in charge” this year, to “Car mostly in charge” in 2020, and finally “Car in charge” in 2025." That just doesn't make sense. To my mind, there's "cruise control" as it exists today, and "car drives itself completely and sa…

Well with technology available as it is today I think Google is going to find building the car is more difficult than creating the technology. See its not just GM looking to do this, almost every make of components for cars is into this space so a solution is already in the pipe. however when it comes to delivering cars that people want; not what government agencies might be coerced into buying; google doesn't stand…

Alphabet's market cap is 490B, Fiat Chrysler is 19B. Toyota is (afaict) 150B. GM is roughly 50B.

I don't think Google's gotta worry about building cars. They can just buy someone who does.

Re: Can Detroit Beat Google to the Self-Driving Car?

#17

Post by Someone1234 » Fri, Oct 30, 2015, 2:33 PM UTC

slacka wrote: post #11

zellyn wrote: post #3

I don't understand why everyone keeps pretending there's a smooth continuum: "He says they contain GM’s road map to autonomy, starting with “Driver in charge” in 2010, progressing to “Driver mostly in charge” this year, to “Car mostly in charge” in 2020, and finally “Car in charge” in 2025." That just doesn't make sense. To my mind, there's "cruise control" as it exists today, and "car drives itself completely and sa…

> To my mind, there's "cruise control" as it exists today, and "car drives itself completely and safely even in adverse conditions". Pretending that it's safe to suddenly hand over to the human in an emergency is just crazy. Fine but where do you draw the line? Is it still safe if "cruise control" adds speed matching, steering, lane changing, or braking? As far as safety today, when I'm on the highway, I'd rather hav…

> Is it still safe if "cruise control" adds speed matching, steering, lane changing, or braking?

That ship sailed years ago. Even in the 2015 model year (mid-2014 release) all of those features are available.

My car does speed matching, minor steering to keep you in the lane (at highway speeds), and auto-braking (both for auto cruise control and for collision avoidance). It works fine.

Re: Can Detroit Beat Google to the Self-Driving Car?

#18

Post by imglorp » Fri, Oct 30, 2015, 2:38 PM UTC

sithadmin wrote: post #5

Detroit being the first to market here is possibly one of the worst things that can happen. The last thing that this area of tech needs is Detroit ruining its reputation before it even really kicks off. US auto manufacturers are worse than laggards when it comes to the electronic systems they embed in their vehicles -- things like Ford MyTouch are borderline hostile to the user, and Jeep has definitely demonstrated a…

It's an industry thing; even the Honda nav software I just got loaded on a brand new vehicle is user hostile. It's firmly 2005 tech and not a moment later.

Their whole development process is glacial and hardware focused. A ten year feature cycle, between conception and release, seems normal.

Tesla using actual software people is going to wipe their floor in this regard.

Re: Can Detroit Beat Google to the Self-Driving Car?

#19

Post by dssddsds » Fri, Oct 30, 2015, 2:38 PM UTC

lallysingh wrote: post #16

Shivetya wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well with technology available as it is today I think Google is going to find building the car is more difficult than creating the technology. See its not just GM looking to do this, almost every make of components for cars is into this space so a solution is already in the pipe. however when it comes to delivering cars that people want; not what government agencies might be coerced into buying; google doesn't stand…

Alphabet's market cap is 490B, Fiat Chrysler is 19B. Toyota is (afaict) 150B. GM is roughly 50B. I don't think Google's gotta worry about building cars. They can just buy someone who does.

Ugh Google just buy Tesla already /s

Re: Can Detroit Beat Google to the Self-Driving Car?

#20

Post by noja » Fri, Oct 30, 2015, 2:38 PM UTC

Someone1234 wrote: post #17

slacka wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> To my mind, there's "cruise control" as it exists today, and "car drives itself completely and safely even in adverse conditions". Pretending that it's safe to suddenly hand over to the human in an emergency is just crazy. Fine but where do you draw the line? Is it still safe if "cruise control" adds speed matching, steering, lane changing, or braking? As far as safety today, when I'm on the highway, I'd rather hav…

> Is it still safe if "cruise control" adds speed matching, steering, lane changing, or braking? That ship sailed years ago. Even in the 2015 model year (mid-2014 release) all of those features are available. My car does speed matching, minor steering to keep you in the lane (at highway speeds), and auto-braking (both for auto cruise control and for collision avoidance). It works fine.

and on your car, if it does any of those things wrong, and you don't correct it (because you are paying less attention, and reacting quick enough would be an impossibility), who is to blame?