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You're Eight Times More Likely to Be Killed by a Police Officer Than a Terrorist

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Re: You're Eight Times More Likely to Be Killed by a Police Officer Than a Terrorist

#61

Post by schnable »

delinka wrote: post #40
philipkuklis wrote: post #27

"[...]one should ask why police officers are such a significant source of danger." The statements are based on data from 2011. 155 people were killed by police officers in US, total population was about 311.7 million back then. That's roughly 0,00005% and we don't even know the circumstances in which they got killed. Saying you're 8 times more likely to [insert extremely unlikely event] than [insert exceptionally unl…

Indeed it is sensationalism. And it highlights the fact that we're expending far too much effort and money on handwavy "solutions" to handwavy "terrorism."

or maybe some of the effort we put into fighting terrorism is effective.

Re: You're Eight Times More Likely to Be Killed by a Police Officer Than a Terrorist

#62

Post by ctdonath »

You can also significantly adjust your odds of being killed by police by choosing behavior unlikely to attract lethal force.

The core issue with terrorism is you have no such choice, the terrorist making the decision to kill people doing absolutely nothing to warrant lethal force.

ETA: I didn't say "make your odds 0%", I said "significantly adjust". Sure you could be shot for no reason, and a few are, but nearly all killings by police occur precisely because the decedent was knowingly perpetrating a crime for which lethal force was a not-unreasonable response. If you choose to not do something which police would reasonably kill you for, you will significantly reduce the odds of being killed by police.

The lead statistic would be more useful if we divide the odds between, say, those with vs without criminal records.

Re: You're Eight Times More Likely to Be Killed by a Police Officer Than a Terrorist

#63

Post by rgbrenner »

philipkuklis wrote: post #27

"[...]one should ask why police officers are such a significant source of danger." The statements are based on data from 2011. 155 people were killed by police officers in US, total population was about 311.7 million back then. That's roughly 0,00005% and we don't even know the circumstances in which they got killed. Saying you're 8 times more likely to [insert extremely unlikely event] than [insert exceptionally unl…

155? This article has another problem then.

Although the FBI tracks police shootings, reporting is voluntary.. so they're grossly underreported. The washingtonpost did an analysis earlier this year attempting to get a more complete number...

we're on track to surpass 1000 police shootings this year.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/fatal-police-shootin...

Re: You're Eight Times More Likely to Be Killed by a Police Officer Than a Terrorist

#65

Post by steveeq1 »

xacaxulu wrote: post #30
chrisBob wrote: post #3

The problem is the people are going to look at this the wrong way. Its not that you should be scared of police; its that you shouldn't be scared of terrorists.

I'm scared of police and I'm basically a WASP. If I were black or latino, I'd be even more scared. Civil asset forfeiture, drug dogs that always indicate presence of drugs, camera/drone tracking of movements of people, illegal phone searches, militarized police departments with special forces type weapons and vehicles, etc. I'm a former US Marine and the police are basically becoming a domestic occupying military for…

And you are statistically more likely to be killed by a black man than you are by an actual policeman. I agree with chrisBob in that you shouldn't worry about the dangers of policemen in the same way you shouldnt worry about the dangers of black people, even if it's statistically "true". It's simply a bad way to look at it.

There is a lot of police brutality news lately in the media so I suspect a lot of availability bias is going on. Things like shark attacks, airline crashes and terrorism tend to get a lot of mental coverage because it sells. And it tends to get a lot of people worried despite their actual nominal probabilities in the grand scheme of things.

Re: You're Eight Times More Likely to Be Killed by a Police Officer Than a Terrorist

#66

Post by a3voices »

cryoshon wrote: post #21
a3voices wrote: post #5

This is ignoring black swan events. There is no chance that police officers will kill 10 million people tomorrow, but there is a non-zero chance that terrorists will.

Dodges the issue entirely. Police kill people in a non-black swan fashion anyway, because their flaws are systemic. We can actually fix the flaws that the cops have. Terrorists are working as intended, not killing millions of people here but instead squabbling over dirt in a destabilized wasteland while the Russians explode them.

Well there is a chance terrorists will kill millions of people here and it just hasn't happened yet. So the total chance of being killed by a terrorist, if you had more information, might be higher than being killed by an officer.

Re: You're Eight Times More Likely to Be Killed by a Police Officer Than a Terrorist

#67

Post by schrodinger »

skywhopper wrote: post #7
chrisBob wrote: post #3

The problem is the people are going to look at this the wrong way. Its not that you should be scared of police; its that you shouldn't be scared of terrorists.

Oh, you should be very scared of the police. They have complete power over you, your life, and your property any time you interact with them, even if you do nothing to invite the interaction. If they choose to invade your home, confiscate your cash, or shoot you dead because you didn't respond to their commands fast enough, or slow enough, or deferentially enough, you have no power to respond.

You have no power to respond on the spot, but you certainly have power to respond later through the court system.

Re: You're Eight Times More Likely to Be Killed by a Police Officer Than a Terrorist

#68

Post by IkmoIkmo »

schnable wrote: post #61
delinka wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Indeed it is sensationalism. And it highlights the fact that we're expending far too much effort and money on handwavy "solutions" to handwavy "terrorism."

or maybe some of the effort we put into fighting terrorism is effective.

It's hard to say, generally it doesn't appear to be the case but there's a possibility this information is secret to the public. But take the NSA for example, it has been looked into a lot by government (e.g. congress) itself behind closed doors and it seems to be pretty useless so far.

> The Privacy and Civil Liberties Oversight Board (PCLOB) also issued a report in which it stated, “we have not identified a single instance involving a threat to the United States in which [bulk collection under Section 215 of the Patriot Act] made a concrete difference in the outcome of a counterterrorism investigation.”

from: https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2014/06/top-5-claims-defenders...

Re: You're Eight Times More Likely to Be Killed by a Police Officer Than a Terrorist

#69

Post by jMyles »

ctdonath wrote: post #62

You can also significantly adjust your odds of being killed by police by choosing behavior unlikely to attract lethal force. The core issue with terrorism is you have no such choice, the terrorist making the decision to kill people doing absolutely nothing to warrant lethal force. ETA: I didn't say "make your odds 0%", I said "significantly adjust". Sure you could be shot for no reason, and a few are, but nearly all…

> You can also significantly adjust your odds of being killed by police by choosing behavior unlikely to attract lethal force.

Well this is the part that it's dispute, particularly regarding people of color.

Re: You're Eight Times More Likely to Be Killed by a Police Officer Than a Terrorist

#70

Post by ctdonath »

a3voices wrote: post #5

This is ignoring black swan events. There is no chance that police officers will kill 10 million people tomorrow, but there is a non-zero chance that terrorists will.

Some are arguing that the former case isn't 0% due to extreme fluke events, but they ignore that there are people in the latter case actively trying, right now, to make that chance 100%.
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