You're Eight Times More Likely to Be Killed by a Police Officer Than a Terrorist • Hacker News Board

Re: You're Eight Times More Likely to Be Killed by a Police Officer Than a Terrorist

#41

Post by lhorie » Thu, Oct 29, 2015, 2:48 PM UTC

a3voices wrote: post #5

This is ignoring black swan events. There is no chance that police officers will kill 10 million people tomorrow, but there is a non-zero chance that terrorists will.

Hmm, 10 million people is roughly a third of the population of Canada. AFAIK, nothing in recorded history ever killed that many people in a single day. (To give some perspective, the atomic bombs in WWII "only" killed in the range of a hundred thousand people)

If you look at a major terrorist attack death toll, you'll probably find that it's within one order of magnitude of, say, a major riot death toll.

Re: You're Eight Times More Likely to Be Killed by a Police Officer Than a Terrorist

#42

Post by rmxt » Thu, Oct 29, 2015, 2:49 PM UTC

throwaway049 wrote: post #38

Being a middle income white person not involved in crime, I suspect my risk for being killed by the police is below average. As I live in London and travel on public transport my risk for being killed by a terrorist is above average.

Poor comparison -- you are drawing a comparison between averages that are on different orders of magnitude. Being "below average" in one case and "above average" in another case doesn't make suddenly make them equivalent.

Re: You're Eight Times More Likely to Be Killed by a Police Officer Than a Terrorist

#43

Post by bigfudge » Thu, Oct 29, 2015, 2:51 PM UTC

DiffEq wrote: post #28

JoeAltmaier wrote: post #12

...and twice as likely to commit suicide, than be killed by anybody.

So this is the problem with statistics; these statistics apply to the average person. But there is no such thing as an average "real person". For instance MY chances of suicide are zero; and the chances of me being killed by a terrorist are far below the average person because of where I live and where I spend my time; the same goes for being killed by a police officer. This applies to MOST people for at least the "b…

It would be nice to assume that were true, but is it actually the case? And what laws were the breaking? Perhaps more interesting is how close the second category comes in terms of frequency: what's the probability for a black man with a mental health issue?

Re: You're Eight Times More Likely to Be Killed by a Police Officer Than a Terrorist

#44

Post by josefresco » Thu, Oct 29, 2015, 2:53 PM UTC

Zigurd wrote: post #8

a3voices wrote: post #5

This is ignoring black swan events. There is no chance that police officers will kill 10 million people tomorrow, but there is a non-zero chance that terrorists will.

No, there isn't such a chance. The only WMDs with the ability to kill tens of thousands are nukes. Terrorists only have nukes on TV, the kind with big countdown displays on them. It's the difference between a black swan and the fantasy of a black swan. The is no real-world hypothesis of how such a black swan happens. That's why black powder bombs are the highest technology terrorists actually use, because it is the m…

"Terrorists only have nukes on TV"

You sure about that? There's a reason the US gives Pakistan billions in "aid".

Re: You're Eight Times More Likely to Be Killed by a Police Officer Than a Terrorist

#45

Post by cubano » Thu, Oct 29, 2015, 2:53 PM UTC

And you are five times more likely to be killed at a railroad crossing then by a police officer.[1]

Headlines like these are obviously created for sensationalism , and while you will be hard pressed to find someone with a bigger animus towards the current USCJS then I, I think we should all be on the lookout for hyperbole, no matter what underlying meme it may be promoting.

[1] http://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/infrastructure/a3...

[EDIT] The original stats used for this analysis have been changed and edited as different versions of the OP have been posted.

Re: You're Eight Times More Likely to Be Killed by a Police Officer Than a Terrorist

#46

Post by _dark_matter_ » Thu, Oct 29, 2015, 2:53 PM UTC

delinka wrote: post #40

philipkuklis wrote: post #27

"[...]one should ask why police officers are such a significant source of danger." The statements are based on data from 2011. 155 people were killed by police officers in US, total population was about 311.7 million back then. That's roughly 0,00005% and we don't even know the circumstances in which they got killed. Saying you're 8 times more likely to [insert extremely unlikely event] than [insert exceptionally unl…

Indeed it is sensationalism. And it highlights the fact that we're expending far too much effort and money on handwavy "solutions" to handwavy "terrorism."

They don't see it that way. Obviously our efforts have been so fruitful that terrorism has been wiped out.

Re: You're Eight Times More Likely to Be Killed by a Police Officer Than a Terrorist

#47

Post by eljimmy » Thu, Oct 29, 2015, 2:54 PM UTC

philipkuklis wrote: post #27

"[...]one should ask why police officers are such a significant source of danger." The statements are based on data from 2011. 155 people were killed by police officers in US, total population was about 311.7 million back then. That's roughly 0,00005% and we don't even know the circumstances in which they got killed. Saying you're 8 times more likely to [insert extremely unlikely event] than [insert exceptionally unl…

I feel it is important to point out that police-related deaths are voluntarily reported by each department.

The true number of deaths is very likely much higher.

Re: You're Eight Times More Likely to Be Killed by a Police Officer Than a Terrorist

#48

Post by irixusr » Thu, Oct 29, 2015, 2:54 PM UTC

I don't really fear police (white 30 year old with no accent) because I know it's fairly rare that some thing bad will happen to me with them.

I also don't fear terrorists who are even less likely to harm me, or the monsters under my bed.

Re: You're Eight Times More Likely to Be Killed by a Police Officer Than a Terrorist

#49

Post by mcnamaratw » Thu, Oct 29, 2015, 2:55 PM UTC

I like numbers, but this one might work better if they put some context:

"You're 50% more likely to be killed by lightning than by a terrorist." or "You're six times more likely to be killed by a police officer than by a bumblebee."

Or the somber "You're 150 times more likely to be killed by a motor vehicle than a terrorist." (The War on Vehicles should apparently be funded to the tune of $150T a year, if I understand the value of American lives properly.)

Re: You're Eight Times More Likely to Be Killed by a Police Officer Than a Terrorist

#50

Post by kazagistar » Thu, Oct 29, 2015, 2:55 PM UTC

exelius wrote: post #20

chrisBob wrote: post #3

The problem is the people are going to look at this the wrong way. Its not that you should be scared of police; its that you shouldn't be scared of terrorists.

This is exactly it. 9/11 was an extraordinary terrorist event: it killed more people than the previous decade of terrorist attacks worldwide. An attack on the scale of 9/11 is simply impossible in the current security climate. And "ordinary" terrorist attacks are simply too isolated to ever be a realistic threat to any one person. Even in Israel, where terror attacks are commonplace, the number of civilian deaths is…

It is unlikely that anyone has won the lottery while being struck by lightning. Keep your examples sensible.