China to begin two-child policy • Hacker News Board

Re: China to begin two-child policy

#161

Post by pwm » Thu, Oct 29, 2015, 2:34 PM UTC

bko wrote: post #100

sahreeg wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I completely agree with you. In terms of population alone, we are exceedingly multiplying; something that might not be of out best advantage. More even when you consider that there will be less opportunities for an increasing number of people, and we will lose this personal freedom you spoke of -to an extent- I am also pro child limit laws. I would suggest nothing too strict, just impose a tax on the third child and…

Human ingenuity is the world's greatest resource and leads to wealth creation and advancement of living standards. Limiting population growth would be ill-advised.

While in essence I agree, I think it is much more nuanced and complicated.

Inequality seems to be deeply encoded in the system. Capacity, in my opinion, only makes sense if you extrapolate from an average human, but there is no such thing as an average human being. However, I don't think it is an exaggeration that our western way of life is not sustainable on a global scale. I wish the fruits of human ingenuity could be enjoyed by every single one of us, but unfortunately it seems utopian.

Re: China to begin two-child policy

#162

Post by nsxwolf » Thu, Oct 29, 2015, 2:34 PM UTC

funkyy wrote: post #128

sethbannon wrote: post #56

From the article "All couples will now be allowed to have two children". So it seems China isn't so much ending its one-child policy, as augmenting it by one to a two-child policy. This means the brutal and cruel enforcement will continue, only it will kick in at the third child instead of at the second.

China managed to succeed in increasing people wealth and loosening laws (still bad for Western standards, but huge step comparing to China 30 years ago). Only because West thinks this is "brutal and cruel" dosent mean our laws would ever worked there. Some tried giving Arab countries democracy and it turned out they never really wanted it and most of the dictators were much better alternative (still bad, just better…

Yes, forced abortions and drownings of infants are sometimes necessary in some cultures. We shouldn't judge.

Re: China to begin two-child policy

#163

Post by ZenoArrow » Thu, Oct 29, 2015, 2:36 PM UTC

tremon wrote: post #62

MC7447a wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Overpopulation is a non-problem. Fertility has fallow to near- or below-replacement rate everywhere in the world, except Afrika (which will likely follow in the next decades.) A nice talk from Hans Rosling on this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eA5BM7CE5-8

You mean, it is not a problem because the planet can support that many? Or do you mean it is a problem, but it will solve itself? I don't think either is correct. The first is only true today because non-First World inhabitants are living on a much smaller ecological footprint than Europe and the US. However, that footprint is increasing rapidly. The second reading at least acknowledges there is a problem, but I thin…

> "Even the most generous estimates I've seen place the Earth's carrying capacity at 7.7 billion people."

Can you show me these estimates? Do they take into account ways we could live with a smaller footprint (e.g. vegetarian/vegan diet) and/or advances in eco-friendly technology?

Re: China to begin two-child policy

#164

Post by rtpg » Thu, Oct 29, 2015, 2:36 PM UTC

funkyy wrote: post #128

sethbannon wrote: post #56

From the article "All couples will now be allowed to have two children". So it seems China isn't so much ending its one-child policy, as augmenting it by one to a two-child policy. This means the brutal and cruel enforcement will continue, only it will kick in at the third child instead of at the second.

China managed to succeed in increasing people wealth and loosening laws (still bad for Western standards, but huge step comparing to China 30 years ago). Only because West thinks this is "brutal and cruel" dosent mean our laws would ever worked there. Some tried giving Arab countries democracy and it turned out they never really wanted it and most of the dictators were much better alternative (still bad, just better…

>Same with China - imagine them exploding with an extra 1 Billion people over next 20 years. Who will feed them? What would be social implications of such a move?

Well for one thing, you'd have a billion more potential farmers...

Population growth is a pretty old problem, and if recent developed nations' demographic reports show, it solves itself once you reach a certain level of development.

China's success is not necessarily because of the policies in place by the government. It could very well be in spite of them.

Re: China to begin two-child policy

#165

Post by kailuowang » Thu, Oct 29, 2015, 2:37 PM UTC

zero_iq wrote: post #96

vincentkriek wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Brutal and cruel? I agree it's a severe limit on the personal freedom but China doesn't value personal freedom as highly as the west does. Brutal and cruel is not the right terms for this in my opinion, you can have a beautiful, rich and fullfilling life with 2 children or less. You can plan to have just two children (up to some point). Also, I think it could benefit the earth if more countries would limit children.

The policy itself isn't cruel or brutal, but the enforcement can be terrible. Brutal and cruel acts include: * Killing of child immediately after birth * Killing of child whilst being born, e.g. in birth canal during birth * Termination of pregnancy as late as 8.5 months * Forced abortions (incorporating kidnapping and assault) All of these things have happened routinely as part of enforcement of the "one child" poli…

Just to make it clear, these types of enforcement are not norms. The law never suggested such enforcement. The law is that you get a financial fine if you have more than one child, that's it. It's actually against the law to force any kind of abortion. That being said, in some rural area, some officials maybe so greedy to make achievement for their "career" that they "enforce" this policy by breaking the law.

Some of the examples you listed have only one report. And it's policy that lasted almost 40 years in a country with a billion people.

Re: China to begin two-child policy

#166

Post by JoeAltmaier » Thu, Oct 29, 2015, 2:37 PM UTC

logicchains wrote: post #30

nabla9 wrote: post #20

Once-child policy was brutally enforced and cruel. It was also highly effective way to reduce poverty. China vs. India: GDP per capita versus fertility rate http://www.google.se/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&ct...

>It was also highly effective way to reduce poverty. Citation needed; correlation does not equal causation. Other East Asian countries showed similar reductions in fertility in spite of no similar policies, and much greater reductions in poverty. China vs. India vs. Asian Tigers (Hong Kong, Singapore, Korea): GDP per capita versus fertility rate http://www.google.se/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&ct... Taiwan e…

It could be that it worked in China, in concert with other policies. Because it didn't work elsewhere is also correlation without causation.

Re: China to begin two-child policy

#167

Post by kailuowang » Thu, Oct 29, 2015, 2:40 PM UTC

sethbannon wrote: post #56

From the article "All couples will now be allowed to have two children". So it seems China isn't so much ending its one-child policy, as augmenting it by one to a two-child policy. This means the brutal and cruel enforcement will continue, only it will kick in at the third child instead of at the second.

The brutality and cruel enforcement is not a widespread problem at least in the eyes of general Chinese population. The only lawful enforcement for the one-child policy is a financial fine (which more and more people can afford now). Any other forceful abortion is against the law. And that is the more common situation in China.

The problem of illegal and brutal "enforcement" only exists in some rural areas and nowadays with the popularity of Internet, it a lot more rare than before.

And thus it's not part of the incentive to end the one-child policy.

Re: China to begin two-child policy

#168

Post by bigfudge » Thu, Oct 29, 2015, 2:41 PM UTC

freehunter wrote: post #120

bigfudge wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No matter the history, using communist as a synonym for totalitarian is lazy.

No matter the history, using terms as they are applied in real life is generally accepted. The definition of communism means one thing, the real world applications of it are something else. How many communist governments have there been that weren't totalitarian?

As I implicitly recognised in my initial comment, the number of non totalitarian communist governments is small. Nonetheless there are plenty of people who self-identify as communist (e.g. in Greece) who don't advocate policies that require or imply totalitarianism. That's why the precision matters.

Re: China to begin two-child policy

#169

Post by tormeh » Thu, Oct 29, 2015, 2:43 PM UTC

funkyy wrote: post #128

sethbannon wrote: post #56

From the article "All couples will now be allowed to have two children". So it seems China isn't so much ending its one-child policy, as augmenting it by one to a two-child policy. This means the brutal and cruel enforcement will continue, only it will kick in at the third child instead of at the second.

China managed to succeed in increasing people wealth and loosening laws (still bad for Western standards, but huge step comparing to China 30 years ago). Only because West thinks this is "brutal and cruel" dosent mean our laws would ever worked there. Some tried giving Arab countries democracy and it turned out they never really wanted it and most of the dictators were much better alternative (still bad, just better…

>Some tried giving Arab countries democracy and it turned out they never really wanted it and most of the dictators were much better alternative (still bad, just better - to clarify).

A mistake was made. It was not understood that people in war-torn countries want peace and stability above all else, and are willing to hand in their liberties for it. It was also not understood that among people who don't trust news or words of any kind (justified in this case) it is rational to support the candidate that's closest to yourself genetically.

The link between democracy and wealth, stability and trust flow both ways, and it's easier to start with wealth, stability and trust than with democracy.

Re: China to begin two-child policy

#170

Post by nsxwolf » Thu, Oct 29, 2015, 2:43 PM UTC

navait wrote: post #139

brlewis wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps nobody's denying that China doesn't value personal freedom as highly as the west does, or that you can have a beautiful, rich and fullfilling life with 2 children or less. Some, myself included, do deny that it could benefit the earth if more governments would enforce limits on children. I think humans are important to the future of the earth, and treating them in a cruel and brutal fashion will cause more pr…

You're in luck. human overpopulation is mostly a solved problem thanks to modern contraception. To curb it all one needs is to build a robust economy and make it avaliable. No need for state policy beyond it, people will do it themselves. http://www.economist.com/node/14743589

It solved the problem so well that the human race is actually likely to go extinct over the long run. Just need to get Africa and India on board with the program.