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Universal Basic Income Will Likely Increase Social Cohesion

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Re: Universal Basic Income Will Likely Increase Social Cohesion

#151

Post by MichaelMoser123 »

afterburner wrote: post #147
MichaelMoser123 wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

commie scare? labeling away you opponents is a very nice method of arguing, it also is not without historic precedence. Now concerning choice - you better ask some long term unemployed about the degree of choice that they are experiencing. I guess that this UBI thing is only a catchword to turn long term unemployment into the socially accepted norm. Still in my book: UBI creates a situation that is very similar to th…

Many put it tons of effort and live in near-poverty conditions. How do you think that feels as a disconnect between effort and result? They are trapped, with no options. The indifference and apathy of bureaucratic communism comes from lack of choice, starting with who to vote for. And as for long-term-unemployment... that's kind of the reason UBI is being proposed, because automation will eliminate so many jobs there…

>Would you prefer the new norm to be the owners of that automation forcing those locked out of work opportunities from birth into worse and worse living conditions, because in the automated future their labour has no value?

i don't think that is inevitable; there is a lot you can do - shorter working days come to mind. Also mind me but technology is also creating jobs, a hundred years ago there were no programmers, that's a profession created by technology. A hundred years ago there were more jobs in assembly, nowadays work is more varied - employment is more specialized and there are professions that nobody thought of back then.

The worst you can do is to label off a large percentage of your population and to refuse to educate them. You end up in a situation where many shops need to import H1B workers.

>The indifference and apathy of bureaucratic communism comes from lack of choice, starting with who to vote for.

I think that in the soviet block most people were working on the construction of Egyptian pyramids - projects that were not productive in any sense, everything was subordinate to the the military industrial complex, etc. There are many non democratic countries in the world, but here you had it that the bureaucracy was totally out of touch with reality, that's a quite unique situation.

i think that this would be the real danger - a ruling elite that is disregarding any feedback and which is totally out of touch with reality. One can argue that this can't happen in an enlightened democracy, i am not so sure about that.

Re: Universal Basic Income Will Likely Increase Social Cohesion

#152

Post by task_queue »

worik wrote: post #150
dragonbonheur wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The part of it that is ridiculous is that Americans protect their richest minority without being part of it. Seriously, America is the country where paid sickness leaves or maternity leaves are not guaranteed. America is the country where waiters are expected to make the most of their living income from tips and not from their salary. America is the country where local governments have outlawed people from collecting…

America is the country that sends the most on health for the worst outcomes America is the country that spends millions/billions/trillions invading desert countries and does not fund public education America is the country where politicians have to publish in a register the bribes they take so voters know who they really represent (it is not he voters!) America is the country that would not regulate derivatives and o…

> My hope? The USA elects a Tea Party slate of candidates and goes isolationist.

The Tea Party can be motivated to support our continued invasions as long as it fits in their framework or is promoted by their figureheads, just like any other party.

There's too much money to be made in fucking up the world.

Re: Universal Basic Income Will Likely Increase Social Cohesion

#153

Post by chrispeel »

vlunkr wrote: post #40
chrispeel wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The 'unconditional' I take to mean that everyone, rich and poor, would get the same money. So even though the people with high income are paying more in taxes to cover this, they're also getting the same amount paid to them in a separate check. So yes, they're paying more in taxes, but they're also getting the same benefit as everyone else, and this will take some of the sting off. UBI is an excellent libertarian/sma…

It's still a net loss for them. Yes they're getting some too, but it's just their money coming back to them. You'd be foolish to feel comforted by that. Also, UBI is far from libertarianism. Libertarians want to be in control of their own money.

> It's still a net loss for them. Yes they're getting some too, but it's just their money coming back to them. You'd be foolish to feel comforted by that.

People are foolish. That's the whole basis of behavioral economics. The point is not that a rational homo economicus would be any more comforted by the fact that the basic income is universal, but that normal people would be. I don't think this universal nature is essential to the basic idea, and would be happy to have the negative income tax.

> Also, UBI is far from libertarianism. Libertarians want to be in control of their own money.

Here's an essay on libertarianism.org that goes through some pros and cons: http://www.libertarianism.org/columns/libertarian-case-basic...

Re: Universal Basic Income Will Likely Increase Social Cohesion

#154

Post by chrispeel »

lambdapie wrote: post #36
chrispeel wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The 'unconditional' I take to mean that everyone, rich and poor, would get the same money. So even though the people with high income are paying more in taxes to cover this, they're also getting the same amount paid to them in a separate check. So yes, they're paying more in taxes, but they're also getting the same benefit as everyone else, and this will take some of the sting off. UBI is an excellent libertarian/sma…

UBI might be a great policy, but your argument makes no sense from an accounting point of view. Every kind of redistribution must sum to zero across all people. Basic income is no different in this regard. So to say that basic income is different because the right and poor both receive it is pure sophistry.

> Every kind of redistribution must sum to zero across all people. Basic income is no different in this regard. So to say that basic income is different because the right and poor both receive it is pure sophistry.

I agree with the zero-sum idea; I should have been more clear that the point was only that making basic income universal might help psychologically. Here's my comments to a different post along the same lines above: People are foolish. That's the whole basis of behavioral economics. The point is not that a rational homo economicus would be any more comforted by the fact that the basic income is universal, but that normal people would be. I don't think this universal nature is essential to the basic idea, and would be happy to have a negative income tax.

Re: Universal Basic Income Will Likely Increase Social Cohesion

#155

Post by dllthomas »

dragonwriter wrote: post #72
skybrian wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's no minimum needed to get started. $100 a month isn't going to pay the rent or even be noticed by a lot of people, but on the margin, it will make a difference to people living on the edge. Also remember that the average person breaks even, so affordability isn't really an issue.

> There's no minimum needed to get started. You probably want the initial value to be high enough that you can actually displace some existing means-tested aid programs, even though you may not initially be able to do all of them.

For any amount, if it's counted as income before the means tested programs, you'll displace many means tested programs for some people. Of course, that also means that those people would likely be made worse off in the short term. Hopefully they could put whatever time they'd spent complying with those means tested programs to better use, and hopefully the other side of the discontinuities in pay-to-takehome would be a little more within reach. I've no idea what it all nets out to...

Re: Universal Basic Income Will Likely Increase Social Cohesion

#156

Post by dllthomas »

eru wrote: post #97
drewrv wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

US GDP has risen by more than 5 trillion since the year 2000 driven mostly by productivity improvements from tech. So we could already be doing it if we wanted to.

Is that in 2000 dollars?

Per the numbers Wolfram Alpha is giving, the increase seems to be close to $8 trillion nominally, which amounts to something over $5 trillion in 2000 dollars.

Edited to add: I wondered how much of this was population growth, and certainly there has been some but real GDP per capita has grown about $5k over that period.

Re: Universal Basic Income Will Likely Increase Social Cohesion

#157

Post by dllthomas »

omnomrentier wrote: post #110
intopieces wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> affordable food (or food stamps), and free public housing within 30 minutes to major city centers would seem like a sensible alternative to the basic income system of 'just give people money'. We give people food stamps, they sell them for less than they're worth for cash. We have public housing. It's called "The Projects" and they're generally known as the rough area of town. Both of these services cost taxpayers…

Basic income is not going to be able to provide housing in the absence of other programs; it will just end up captured as increased rents against a static supply of deteriorating housing stock. This model of BI (replacing existing programs) is nothing but a giveaway to landlords, which I assume accounts for the PR juice behind it. It's possible to have social housing that's not terrible or stigmatized. Having moved f…

"Basic income is not going to be able to provide housing in the absence of other programs; it will just end up captured as increased rents against a static supply of deteriorating housing stock."

Rents are a matter of supply versus demand. There is a tremendous supply of housing. What is limited is desirable housing - and a big part of that is housing somewhat near a stable income. A basic income - even a modest one - would seem to radically increase the supply of housing near a stable income.

Re: Universal Basic Income Will Likely Increase Social Cohesion

#158

Post by dllthomas »

randyrand wrote: post #77
paulsutter wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The money for basic income will come from automation driven productivity improvements. Many of the people who are "paying for it" (ie, putting in the thousands of man-years to create those technologies) have exactly that intent, to free people from drudgery. EDIT: pvnick, yes the consensus is measured in decades. Some think fewer, some think more, but yes and thanks.

Automation does not create profit, it reduces prices!!!!* *In markets ones with at least some competition Also, its important to note that even the machine owners wont make profits in a competitive market.

Won't make economic profits. That doesn't preclude accounting profits, which is what we tax. Limiting ourselves to Econ 101, everyone in a competitive market makes the same accounting profit they could in the next industry over - this "opportunity cost" is the difference between the two definitions of profit.

Re: Universal Basic Income Will Likely Increase Social Cohesion

#159

Post by dllthomas »

rebootthesystem wrote: post #146
Sammi wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But all the progress is only going in the direction of automation. The long term macro trend is clear. Why do we have so many pointless jobs today?

> The long term macro trend is clear. Not to me. If I had to make an attempt to predict the future I'd say there might be two trends. And they are opposite extremes: First, the good jobs require more and more knowledge. Second, automation, as you suggested, might result in jobs where very little knowledge is necessary. "Push this button. If that light turns red, push that button". Then again, even in what could be se…

"Push this button. If that light turns red, push that button"

That's not a job. That's something automated away in a day or two.

Re: Universal Basic Income Will Likely Increase Social Cohesion

#160

Post by eru »

dllthomas wrote: post #156
eru wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is that in 2000 dollars?

Per the numbers Wolfram Alpha is giving, the increase seems to be close to $8 trillion nominally, which amounts to something over $5 trillion in 2000 dollars. Edited to add: I wondered how much of this was population growth, and certainly there has been some but real GDP per capita has grown about $5k over that period.

Thanks for looking into this!
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