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Western Digital agrees to buy SanDisk for about $19B

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Re: Western Digital agrees to buy SanDisk for about $19B

#31

This sucks for consumers. Prices are already way to high for HDs and don't seem to come down anymore. It is as if there is some sort of price fixing going on.

You can buy a Seagate 5tb external for $136 on Amazon.

I was paying that much for 1tb to 1.5tb just a few years ago. That's a significant improvement. Prices have fallen by half for 1tb (~$50); and at the $125-$135 price point, capacity has increased by ~200%.

I fail to see how prices are way too high. Current prices are a steal in my opinion.

Re: Western Digital agrees to buy SanDisk for about $19B

#33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Really? Before the flood, I seem to remember you could get a 1TB Samsung F1 7200rpm drive for £30. Now, an equivalent drive will set you back around £35, and it's taken a long time to reach that level...

This is all anecdotal but... I bought... 1TB WD Green EARS HDDs in 2010 for $70. 2TB WD Red HDDs in spring 2014 for $89. 1TB WD Black HDDs in fall 2014 for $90. Just spot checked the same drives... 1TB WD Green EARS HDDs go for $57. 2TB WD Red HDDs go for $89. 1TB WD Black HDDs go for $71. So prices are slowly falling but I don't think that we're going to see the rapid falls we were accustom to in the last decade due…

HGST 8TB is keeping its high price for about a year already. Prior to that they had wonderful 4TB drives for ~$100 for home NAS, the price for 8TB version is like 6x higher and their 4TB drives are no more since WD acquired them (and Seagate's 8TB home drives have poor reliability, HGST being the only reliable HDD manufacturer atm). Seems like we are in a sort of a limbo when there aren't any reasonably priced SSDs >1TB and HDDs are stuck at 8-10TB for a while already.

As for SSDs, most of the optimization goes to improving bandwidth (where most people won't notice a real-world difference between an SSD plugged into SATA2 and M.2 PCIe baring 8k/4k video creation), but anyone will notice a real-world difference in increased IOPS, which no company cares about and they plateaued at ~100k IOPS for the past few years (i.e. some of the low-end Sandisk SSDs with 4k IOPS are subjectively as slow as HDDs).

Re: Western Digital agrees to buy SanDisk for about $19B

#34
post #14

This sucks for consumers. Prices are already way to high for HDs and don't seem to come down anymore. It is as if there is some sort of price fixing going on.

Hmmm, when did the price decreases stop? I last bought some high capacity drives in 2011 just before the floods in Thailand zapped the industry, and I now note I can buy twice the capacity, 2TB -> 4TB, for $35 less. There could be demand issues, as companies like Amazon, Google, Backblaze, etc. etc. buy them in mass quantities to offer redundant cloud storage. At the other end, SSDs have got to be eating the lunch of…

Here is a nice list of historic hard disk prices (1955-2015): http://www.jcmit.com/diskprice.htm

Re: Western Digital agrees to buy SanDisk for about $19B

#35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Really? Before the flood, I seem to remember you could get a 1TB Samsung F1 7200rpm drive for £30. Now, an equivalent drive will set you back around £35, and it's taken a long time to reach that level...

This is all anecdotal but... I bought... 1TB WD Green EARS HDDs in 2010 for $70. 2TB WD Red HDDs in spring 2014 for $89. 1TB WD Black HDDs in fall 2014 for $90. Just spot checked the same drives... 1TB WD Green EARS HDDs go for $57. 2TB WD Red HDDs go for $89. 1TB WD Black HDDs go for $71. So prices are slowly falling but I don't think that we're going to see the rapid falls we were accustom to in the last decade due…

Quibble or more about your useful exposition, especially WRT:

That's 3-5x growth for the 5 year period. Why has growth slowed? Is it a technological constraint or a lack of investment?

Could be technological. A few years ago I read that magnetic hard disk areal densities were doubling roughly once a year. However, unlike the process node shrinks that allow Moore's law, don't disk improvements come from either small incremental things or huge improvements like giant magnetoresistance (GMR) heads? So the companies could have, for the time being at least, run out big technological advances.

In fact, while I'm not following this at all closely (for various reasons I'm planning on keeping a 4 TB cap on my home storage), the biggest new thing I've read about is shingled recording (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shingled_magnetic_recording), where writes are partially overlapped, and rewrites are expensive. Per that Wikipedia article, this can add 25% to the capacity of a drive ... which in the context of a previous doubling per year isn't much, it's more of a small incremental improvement.

The other side is demand, of course. I'm not sure on general principles that consumer demand for big drives is down that much, for a small SSD for active stuff + a big nearline drive for media makes a lot of sense. Especially if your Internet connection is capped like mine. This is the approach I've taken since 2007 (with heavy use of high quality CD-Rs for the 2000-2006 period).

Another factor might be an accumulation of people losing too much data on their big hard disks.

Finally, I have to wonder if the big cloud storage providers are slowing down big capacity disk purchases. That'll in part depend on how they use them, do they split out disk farms from compute, or use more homogeneous approaches, such as "moderate" sized disks attached to most machines?

Re: Western Digital agrees to buy SanDisk for about $19B

#36
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hmmm, when did the price decreases stop? I last bought some high capacity drives in 2011 just before the floods in Thailand zapped the industry, and I now note I can buy twice the capacity, 2TB -> 4TB, for $35 less. There could be demand issues, as companies like Amazon, Google, Backblaze, etc. etc. buy them in mass quantities to offer redundant cloud storage. At the other end, SSDs have got to be eating the lunch of…

Really? Before the flood, I seem to remember you could get a 1TB Samsung F1 7200rpm drive for £30. Now, an equivalent drive will set you back around £35, and it's taken a long time to reach that level...

A 1TB spinning-rust disk is quickly becoming a niche product. Looking quickly on Amazon, a 1TB drive is ~$50 while you can get a 5TB for ~$150. The price has plummeted, just not at that capacity.

Re: Western Digital agrees to buy SanDisk for about $19B

#37
post #26

The consolidation in the semiconductors/chip IP industry, thus far in 2015: 1. Intel-Altera: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-01/intel-buys... 2. Avago-Broadcom (and earlier, Avago + LSI): http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-27/avago-said... 3. Silicon Imaging-Lattice: http://www.wsj.com/articles/lattice-to-buy-silicon-image-for... 4. NXP-Freescale: http://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=…

Another consolidation this year: Dialog is buying Atmel, although Atmel is fairly small compared to the other big players in the microcontroller market.

Re: Western Digital agrees to buy SanDisk for about $19B

#38
post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is all anecdotal but... I bought... 1TB WD Green EARS HDDs in 2010 for $70. 2TB WD Red HDDs in spring 2014 for $89. 1TB WD Black HDDs in fall 2014 for $90. Just spot checked the same drives... 1TB WD Green EARS HDDs go for $57. 2TB WD Red HDDs go for $89. 1TB WD Black HDDs go for $71. So prices are slowly falling but I don't think that we're going to see the rapid falls we were accustom to in the last decade due…

Quibble or more about your useful exposition, especially WRT: That's 3-5x growth for the 5 year period. Why has growth slowed? Is it a technological constraint or a lack of investment? Could be technological. A few years ago I read that magnetic hard disk areal densities were doubling roughly once a year. However, unlike the process node shrinks that allow Moore's law, don't disk improvements come from either small i…

I think technologically we've come to an impasse for the reasons you've pointed out, but I suspect that the average user also has little demand for drives greater than 1 TB in capacity which might be just as big a factor. I'm not saying that an individual's combined storage requirements don't exceed that but rather than no one storage need requires drives with a greater capacity.

Re: Western Digital agrees to buy SanDisk for about $19B

#39
post #4

I always have thought that companies were bought for a price of it's market value (stock price * number of stocks), or if someone did not wanted pay all in cash they would've tried to compensate in other ways until market value is reached. But here WD bought SD for ~85-86$ per share, when it was worth ~75$ per share. It's at least 13% more. Does it simply mean that WD hopes that SD will rise in value rapidly? Or I im…

In theory, owning a controlling stake in the company is worth something beyond the price of an individual share, because it gives you the power to affect the outcome of the business. The difference between acquisition price and current market value is often referred to as a "control premium" and 13% isn't a particularly big one.

Re: Western Digital agrees to buy SanDisk for about $19B

#40

This sucks for consumers. Prices are already way to high for HDs and don't seem to come down anymore. It is as if there is some sort of price fixing going on.

Prices of hard drives historically haven't come down. For a very long time consumer hard drives have been between $50 to $200. What changed over time was the size of the drive you could get for $X.

That's still happening, but it's happening a lot slower than it used to be.

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