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Tesla shares dive after Consumer Reports yanks recommendation for Model S

latimes.com

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Re: Tesla shares dive after Consumer Reports yanks recommendation for Model S

#51

Post by beat »

tdees40 wrote: post #45
beat wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla is a growth company that could be a giant. BMW is a stable old blue chip. Different market values entirely. At the individual car level, Tesla S is priced to match mid/high end sedans from BMW, Mercedes, and Audi, so that's the quality level they need to hit. And such quality isn't about reliability so much as fit and finish. Tesla is doing extremely well against very established competition in that regard.

Tesla' market cap is $30B. GM is $53B. Ford is $61B. If you're buying Tesla, you have to believe that they will become a huge player, and soon. They can't just be bigger, they have to be huge or else you're radically overpaying for a niche producer.

I want to play the game where we can make a fortune on high-growth stocks without any risk.

Re: Tesla shares dive after Consumer Reports yanks recommendation for Model S

#52

Post by cjensen »

derekp7 wrote: post #11

Seeing as how the battery system is primarily what makes electric cars expensive, I really wish automakers would start delivering plugin hybrids that have, say 75 - 100 mile range on battery (to keep cost down), along with a very low horsepower gas engine. (Most plugin hybrids give you about 20 - 30 miles on battery). The way it would work: the battery would drive the front wheels, and you would use the battery for m…

Your suggested configuration has very big downsides. Basically, your config would be an electric car which carries around a complete internal combustion engine, gas tank, and exhaust system just in case it runs out of battery. For simple commutes and around town, you'd be better off jettisoning the weight and cost and getting a slightly bigger battery.

The hybrid car as originally conceived is genius: Small and efficient gas engines are very gutless. Add an electric motor to fix the gutlessness and improve efficiency in stop-and-go circumstances.

Electric cars are wonderful too. Trying to combine the benefits of all-electric with a hybrid is questionable.

Re: Tesla shares dive after Consumer Reports yanks recommendation for Model S

#53

Post by aresant »

Interesting that this important line was omitted from the LATimes article:

“Despite the problems, [CONSUMER REPORTS] data show that Tesla owner satisfaction is still very high: Ninety-seven percent of owners said they would definitely buy their car again."

That is a direct quote from the CS article and featured in other prominent media. (1)

I get that a negative CS article could potentially influence brand perception for non-owners but seems somewhat irresponsible to report only the negative side of the story especially when the Tesla LITERALLY ranked #1 in Consumer Reports 2014's Automotive Satisfaction.

(1) http://www.forbes.com/sites/joannmuller/2015/10/20/teslas-pe...

(2) http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1095745_tesla-model-s-to...

Re: Tesla shares dive after Consumer Reports yanks recommendation for Model S

#54

Post by lifeisstillgood »

So some sales figures from random unchecked websites

Tesla: 10k/qtr or 40k cars pa BMW: 26k/mth or 312k car pa

So BMW sells 8x tesla (lots of hand wavy around figures), and tesla is selling at 13x BMW

Seems like a good bet - Tesla just needs to replace one of the worlds major brands. VW just imploded so there is room in the market without any major shifts.

http://jalopnik.com/tesla-is-finally-giving-us-sales-numbers...

http://f30.bimmerpost.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1122009

Re: Tesla shares dive after Consumer Reports yanks recommendation for Model S

#55

Post by encoderer »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #39
encoderer wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Check out the PEG ratio, which factors in growth. Rapid and sustained growth is not guaranteed and bad press can inhibit it. But you need that growth to justify the valuation. Priced for perfection.

Priced to be the supplier for every other vehicle company that needs batteries, every utility that needs utility scale battery storage, and possibly even an Uber competitor. Properly priced.

Right. So when tesla appears to stumble on this path, that is going to impact the share price more severely than it would a company whose value is more inline with its peers.

Re: Tesla shares dive after Consumer Reports yanks recommendation for Model S

#56

Post by pinkrooftop »

vhold wrote: post #40
pkorzeniewski wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wouldn't take the owner satisfaction ratings too seriously, people who buy Tesla cars are mostly rich enthusiasts of new technologies and will quietly deal with a lot of issues before starting to criticize the car. If someone doesn't care about the electric engine, there's really no reason to buy a Tesla - for the same price you can get a much more luxurious german car with proven technology. It's similar to people…

Also when you spend over $100,000 on a car you're less likely to want to diminish its status value and other peoples' perceptions of your choices by complaining about it.

Jaguar owners have been an exception before recent quality improvements

Re: Tesla shares dive after Consumer Reports yanks recommendation for Model S

#57

Post by toomuchtodo »

encoderer wrote: post #55
toomuchtodo wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Priced to be the supplier for every other vehicle company that needs batteries, every utility that needs utility scale battery storage, and possibly even an Uber competitor. Properly priced.

Right. So when tesla appears to stumble on this path, that is going to impact the share price more severely than it would a company whose value is more inline with its peers.

But Tesla hasn't stumbled on this path, its stumbled on its vehicles. The vehicles have simply been a method to bootstrap their Supercharger network and Gigafactory, which are both on schedule. Arguably, once enough vehicle manufacturers were producing electric cars, Tesla could close up their vehicle manufacturing business if they were so inclined (and exist solely to provide battery packs).

Re: Tesla shares dive after Consumer Reports yanks recommendation for Model S

#58

Post by encoderer »

cma wrote: post #46
encoderer wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Check out the PEG ratio, which factors in growth. Rapid and sustained growth is not guaranteed and bad press can inhibit it. But you need that growth to justify the valuation. Priced for perfection.

Isn't PEG just based on their existing growth within the luxury market, whereas they have publicized plans of entering mass market?

No, it's their PE ratio divided by their growth rate.

Re: Tesla shares dive after Consumer Reports yanks recommendation for Model S

#59

Post by achamayou »

briandear wrote: post #36

I wonder how many CR editors shorter Tesla stock before this was published. It wouldn't even be considered insider trading. I don't really put much stock in CR, unfortunately, the markets did -- quite unfairly actually since most folks buying Teslas aren't doing comparison shopping using CR.

It absolutely would be considered insider trading, as this report before its publication clearly falls under the definition of Material Non-Public Information, ie. any information that could reasonably be expected to affect the price of a security, and that hasn't been published yet.

Re: Tesla shares dive after Consumer Reports yanks recommendation for Model S

#60

Post by 6stringmerc »

ceejayoz wrote: post #22
encoderer wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla's PE in 2016 is forecasted over 130. For comparison bmw is under 10. Tesla is priced for perfection.

Comparing Tesla to BMW like that probably isn't very reasonable. No one has any expectations that BMW will suddenly decide to start selling 10x or 100x the number of cars, while that's Tesla's explicit goal.

That's an interesting point. If Quality Control issues persist (at a rate statistically significant vs. the 'competition'), and there's a larger number of vehicles purchased / in use, then I wonder if the repair and maintenance services by Telsa will be negatively affected? I mean, it's one thing to schedule an appointment when there are XX shops that can work on a brand where the local population is in the thousands (like BMW), but if there are many more cars with issues than there are shops to fix them...that sounds like a choke point to me, and one rather unique to Tesla in this regard.
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