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How to know if where you live is “up and coming”: fried chicken vs. coffee shops

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Re: How to know if where you live is “up and coming”: fried chicken vs. coffee shops

#71

Post by mikeash »

TeMPOraL wrote: post #25

Well, China is definitely not an "up and coming" country. I've been here like a week and I already don't want to ever look at chicken in my life again.

Funny, I'm in Beijing right now and there are coffee shops everywhere. You can pick a random street corner, close your eyes, throw a rock, and it will probably shatter the window of a coffee joint. And chicken dishes take at least a bit of effort to find, with pork being the king of meats, and beef a distant second. Aside from KFC, of course, which is all over.

Re: How to know if where you live is “up and coming”: fried chicken vs. coffee shops

#72

Post by robmcm »

tfgg wrote: post #30
robmcm wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Peckham is up and coming though, so it seems to have worked to some extent, albeit a year too late.

That's the thing, you'd need to demonstrate how "coffee shop / chicken shop" density correlates with house prices over time, and whether it's a predictor or a lagging indicator. There might be better correlators - art galleries and cocktail bars are probably other good ones, or most effects might be mostly priced in, or house price increases might be mostly related to investment in repairing shoddy properties, etc. e…

I could be that often coffee shops take over old chicken shops given the size and locations.

In London I have observed that gentrification often stems from students living in a cheap area, they make it cool with lots of bars, pubs, events etc.

This attracts graduates, who are typically DINKYs, they then add to the available cash in the area and start buying property. Eventually they have kids and the area becomes more mature and expensive.

The area next on the tube/train line is typically next to get gentrified by the graduates: Clapham -> Balham/Clapham Junction, East Dulwich -> Peckham/Brockley/Forest Hill, Shorditch -> Dalston/Hakney, whilst new students pick new areas, influenced by cheap rent.

Re: How to know if where you live is “up and coming”: fried chicken vs. coffee shops

#73

Post by TeMPOraL »

mikeash wrote: post #71
TeMPOraL wrote: post #25

Well, China is definitely not an "up and coming" country. I've been here like a week and I already don't want to ever look at chicken in my life again.

Funny, I'm in Beijing right now and there are coffee shops everywhere. You can pick a random street corner, close your eyes, throw a rock, and it will probably shatter the window of a coffee joint. And chicken dishes take at least a bit of effort to find, with pork being the king of meats, and beef a distant second. Aside from KFC, of course, which is all over.

Greetings from Shenzhen. Lots of coffee shops here too, but chicken you can get absolutely everywhere. Pork is ubiquitous too. Beef, as far as I can tell, much less so.

Also, the longer I'm staying here the more I'm getting cured out of obsessing over my energy use. The amount of propane a street vendor uses to prepare a single meal is greater than what I use up in an entire day.

Re: How to know if where you live is “up and coming”: fried chicken vs. coffee shops

#74

Post by lujim »

ethbro wrote: post #49

> Poor on average take worse care of their health and fitness Not intended to be snarky, as I grok the intent of your comment, but poor also don't typically have time to come home and go for an hour jog with frequency during the week.

I think the intent of that comment is genuine. There are poor working multiple jobs to make ends meet and their are unemployed or underemployed poor that have tons of free time. There are middle and upper class people that work 100 hours a week and their are middle class people that sneak by on barely 40 hours a week. I do genuinely notice a spike in joggers in more well to do areas.

It may be that people with more money get to spend their time a bit higher on Maslow's hierarchy of needs, but I don't think it's strictly that all poor are busier than all middle or upper class.

Re: How to know if where you live is “up and coming”: fried chicken vs. coffee shops

#75

Post by gd1 »

DannoHung wrote: post #31

This analysis would be tremendously racist in America.

It's plenty 'racist' here in the UK (at least under the left-wing redefinition of the word racist as any mention of race at all). Chicken shops and jerk chicken are associated with the African-Caribbean population.

All he's done with his analysis is used two thinly disguised proxy variables to hide his true hypothesis, which may very well be a good hypothesis but is unpalatable to discuss in public.

Re: How to know if where you live is “up and coming”: fried chicken vs. coffee shops

#76

Post by mikeash »

TeMPOraL wrote: post #73
mikeash wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Funny, I'm in Beijing right now and there are coffee shops everywhere. You can pick a random street corner, close your eyes, throw a rock, and it will probably shatter the window of a coffee joint. And chicken dishes take at least a bit of effort to find, with pork being the king of meats, and beef a distant second. Aside from KFC, of course, which is all over.

Greetings from Shenzhen. Lots of coffee shops here too, but chicken you can get absolutely everywhere. Pork is ubiquitous too. Beef, as far as I can tell, much less so. Also, the longer I'm staying here the more I'm getting cured out of obsessing over my energy use. The amount of propane a street vendor uses to prepare a single meal is greater than what I use up in an entire day.

I wonder if the choice of meats is a regional thing. I would definitely not peg chicken as characteristic of China, but I've never been anywhere near Shenzhen.

Re: How to know if where you live is “up and coming”: fried chicken vs. coffee shops

#77

Post by SpaghettiCat »

elcct wrote: post #64
Shivetya wrote: post #54

So besides "chicken shops" which must be a regional indicator for poor or undesirable what other establishments are also present? There should be an obvious transition type of business that precedes the coffee shop. Combined with chicken shops perhaps the availability of different businesses could give entrepreneurs an indicator where to set up similar or buy up space?

Pawnshops, payday loan services, barber shops... And pubs closed down, because it is too dangerous for them to operate. Also signs on restaurants "Customer only toilets"

Why barber shops? Don't well-to-do people also go to the barber to get their hair cut?

Re: How to know if where you live is “up and coming”: fried chicken vs. coffee shops

#78

Post by TeMPOraL »

mikeash wrote: post #76
TeMPOraL wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Greetings from Shenzhen. Lots of coffee shops here too, but chicken you can get absolutely everywhere. Pork is ubiquitous too. Beef, as far as I can tell, much less so. Also, the longer I'm staying here the more I'm getting cured out of obsessing over my energy use. The amount of propane a street vendor uses to prepare a single meal is greater than what I use up in an entire day.

I wonder if the choice of meats is a regional thing. I would definitely not peg chicken as characteristic of China, but I've never been anywhere near Shenzhen.

Chicken is sort of a stereotype of China where I come from (Poland) - probably because most of the "chinese" restaurants serve primarily all possible permutations of chicken. What surprised me though is that sea food seems also extremely popular here - you can buy all kinds of crayfish, snails, lobsters, etc.

Re: How to know if where you live is “up and coming”: fried chicken vs. coffee shops

#79

Post by 88e282102ae2e5b »

Xophmeister wrote: post #3

There's no justification for the assumption of a high coffee-to-chicken ratio implying up-and-coming. It's not an unreasonable assumption, but it's definitely anecdotal.

This isn't anecdotal - even an anecdote would have a single data point. This is just a completely untested model.

Re: How to know if where you live is “up and coming”: fried chicken vs. coffee shops

#80

Post by alsetmusic »

Implicated wrote: post #58
angdis wrote: post #50

My "rule-of-thumb" indicator: whether or not there are a lot of check-cashing, bail-bond and furniture rental establishments.

Same principle applies to 'big chain' type retailers and such. If the local grocery stores aren't large regional chain stores... likely not a good area.

The opposite can also be true. Secluded neighborhoods with lots of small mom-and-pop shops instead of commercial giants may be a location driver. My nearest chain is only a mile away but my community is built around a strip of independent shops.
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