Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Neuroscientists use maps of people’s brains to predict reasoning ability

wired.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

21–30 of 30 posts

Re: Neuroscientists use maps of people’s brains to predict reasoning ability

#21

Post by gwern »

metasean wrote: post #12
gwern wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Say every child gets their connectome mapped when they start school to get placed in the best type of learning environment for them (auditory, visual etc.). There is no reason whatsoever to do this. Aside from the issue that 'multiple intelligences' has not held up and has been abandoned, if you want to measure their intelligence, it's unlikely that brain scans will anytime in the foreseeable future outperform simp…

While I largely agree with you, I have to take issue with a couple of you points. > outperform simply giving a child a 10-minute pencil-and-paper IQ test (and highly unlikely that scans will ever be cheaper or easier than a regular IQ test). For children the test takes, "48–65 minutes to administer" and requires more than pencil-and-paper [1]. > There is no reason whatsoever to do this. More importantly, I think doin…

> For children the test takes, "48–65 minutes to administer" and requires more than pencil-and-paper [1].

For the full-scale WAIS, perhaps. But you can still extract a good estimate from the subscales, and needless to say, the WAIS is far from the only IQ test out there.

> I think doing a regular comparison of the standard IQ test results with this new scanning method could be a good way to account for test bias [2].

Huh? The brain scans are being validated using the existing IQ tests in the first place, and if one doesn't accept all the existing literature on the unbiasedness of current IQ tests (where the concepts are not too difficult - for example, I think many laymen could get through and understand most of _Bias in Mental Testing_, Jensen 1980 http://emilkirkegaard.dk/en/wp-content/uploads/Bias-in-Menta... explaining what biases there would be, how one would test for them, and why IQ tests are unbiased), one is not going to accept the results of the infinitely more complicated & subtler brain imaging pipeline where there's so many details & variability that they had a pretty serious replicability problem for a while, especially when they just yield the same results that the original IQ tests would have.

Re: Neuroscientists use maps of people’s brains to predict reasoning ability

#22

Post by nicklaf »

jbandela1 wrote: post #13

Great xkcd addressing this issue http://xkcd.com/1588/

That xkcd is spot on.

Alan Kay has said that "point of view is worth 80 IQ points".

I don't see how observing internal brain structure is going to reflect the benefit from points of view held, even in the slightest. There could very well be an inverse correlation, in which people having above-average natural ability tend to brute-force their way through problems that could have been avoided entirely with better choices. Just as Gordon Bell said: "The cheapest, fastest, and most reliable components are those that aren't there".

You just don't hear about people getting through life, but failing to understand the notion of, say, "not stepping out onto the crosswalk when the street is still busy". Your environment is extrinsic to your internal brain structure, and you encode information about your environment against your own internal system of thought, regardless of its architecture. It's not like people who happen to be "naturally better spatial thinkers" can somehow do a better job at recalling their own beliefs.

Re: Neuroscientists use maps of people’s brains to predict reasoning ability

#24

Post by prodmerc »

Brains rewire all the time. It's our number 1 feature, adaptability. A good musician can become a good sharpshooter, a good programmer can excel at architectural engineering.

Being a good writer - what does that mean? Someone who has had some real, interesting experiences may be a better writer than someone who is wired to tell good stories.

Physical features also matter - a lot. Your brain may be perfect for a nuclear physicist, but you're no good if you're gonna have a stroke or heart attack suddenly on the job.

And, of course, nurture over nature - people's background, how they grew up, how they were educated from their first year to now, matters way more than genetics.

If you don't/can't account for all of that (and more) when deciding a person's future, then keep this science to yourself.

Re: Neuroscientists use maps of people’s brains to predict reasoning ability

#25

Post by minority-one »

prodmerc wrote: post #24

Brains rewire all the time. It's our number 1 feature, adaptability. A good musician can become a good sharpshooter, a good programmer can excel at architectural engineering. Being a good writer - what does that mean? Someone who has had some real, interesting experiences may be a better writer than someone who is wired to tell good stories. Physical features also matter - a lot. Your brain may be perfect for a nucle…

On the other hand, there's a consensus in the scientific community that IQ is the best predictor of outcome in life, despite the factors you've mentioned.

In other words, all being taken into consideration, it turns out IQ has an incredible predicting power regarding the lives of individuals. It's actually better at predicting life outcome than any other factor.

> And, of course, nurture over nature [...] matters way more than genetics.

That is the opposite of what current research into IQ has shown so far. If you go on YouTube, you can find interviews with Charles Murray, and that will help you understand this better.

> A good musician can become a good sharpshooter, a good programmer can excel at architectural engineering.

Yes, but it's not likely to happen (or you'd have oodles of examples). Predicting is all about what's more likely, and in this capacity, IQ has proven over and over again to be the single best predictor.

Re: Neuroscientists use maps of people’s brains to predict reasoning ability

#26

Post by JoeAltmaier »

minority-one wrote: post #25
prodmerc wrote: post #24

Brains rewire all the time. It's our number 1 feature, adaptability. A good musician can become a good sharpshooter, a good programmer can excel at architectural engineering. Being a good writer - what does that mean? Someone who has had some real, interesting experiences may be a better writer than someone who is wired to tell good stories. Physical features also matter - a lot. Your brain may be perfect for a nucle…

On the other hand, there's a consensus in the scientific community that IQ is the best predictor of outcome in life, despite the factors you've mentioned. In other words, all being taken into consideration, it turns out IQ has an incredible predicting power regarding the lives of individuals. It's actually better at predicting life outcome than any other factor. > And, of course, nurture over nature [...] matters way…

I'm doubtful of that consensus. Is it a real measured thing, or just 'common knowledge' which adds up to urban legend.

I'd understood that the best predictor of success at a job is Conscientiousness. More than test scores, economic class, fancy schools.

Re: Neuroscientists use maps of people’s brains to predict reasoning ability

#27

Post by josinalvo »

Nav_Panel wrote: post #18

I'd like to direct curious readers to my favorite story by Isaac Asimov, called "Profession": http://www.inf.ufpr.br/renato/profession.html It deals with pretty much exactly this topic -- in the story, peoples' professions are determined by brain scans (as in the study), and the requisite professional knowledge is then loaded via a similar device (which seems much further off). The story explores some of the ethical/…

Spoiler and a question in rot13

1.V nz obgurerq sbe guvf vf irel htyl-qhpxyvat-vfu

2.Jul QB gurl pnyy gurz Bylzcvpf?

Re: Neuroscientists use maps of people’s brains to predict reasoning ability

#29

Post by minority-one »

JoeAltmaier wrote: post #26
minority-one wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the other hand, there's a consensus in the scientific community that IQ is the best predictor of outcome in life, despite the factors you've mentioned. In other words, all being taken into consideration, it turns out IQ has an incredible predicting power regarding the lives of individuals. It's actually better at predicting life outcome than any other factor. > And, of course, nurture over nature [...] matters way…

I'm doubtful of that consensus. Is it a real measured thing, or just 'common knowledge' which adds up to urban legend. I'd understood that the best predictor of success at a job is Conscientiousness. More than test scores, economic class, fancy schools.

Honestly, that is in the same level of saying that you doubt the consensus on Evolution.

I say this not to disparage, but you are simply ignorant about the subject. If you read about Psychometrics and perhaps work by Charles Murray et alii you will realize right now you don't know what you are talking about. Start on YouTube and listen to Dr. Murray and he'll give you more papers to read and keywords to look for.

The consensus exists and you can verify it for yourself if you care to.

Re: Neuroscientists use maps of people’s brains to predict reasoning ability

#30

Post by prodmerc »

minority-one wrote: post #25
prodmerc wrote: post #24

Brains rewire all the time. It's our number 1 feature, adaptability. A good musician can become a good sharpshooter, a good programmer can excel at architectural engineering. Being a good writer - what does that mean? Someone who has had some real, interesting experiences may be a better writer than someone who is wired to tell good stories. Physical features also matter - a lot. Your brain may be perfect for a nucle…

On the other hand, there's a consensus in the scientific community that IQ is the best predictor of outcome in life, despite the factors you've mentioned. In other words, all being taken into consideration, it turns out IQ has an incredible predicting power regarding the lives of individuals. It's actually better at predicting life outcome than any other factor. > And, of course, nurture over nature [...] matters way…

IQ is only a good predictor when you compare low average and borderline (who indeed are at a disadvantage no matter their conditions) with average and higher.

Average, above average and higher scoring persons' outcome in life will depend more heavily on upbringing and surroundings than anything else.

In fact, those scoring the highest may actually end up worse - addiction, depression, anxiety, loneliness, etc. - all because they live well below their potential because of their circumstances...

Post reply on HN