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The world needs at least 600M new jobs in the next decade for young people

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Re: The world needs at least 600M new jobs in the next decade for young people

#321

Post by marssaxman »

ChuckMcM wrote: post #231
roymurdock wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm afraid I don't have the money to devote my life to politics and I'm much too idealistic to be a good politician. In any event, I've come to the conclusion that the best way to influence the system is to have a lot of money to throw around. Then you can hire a guy to go make speeches for you and spread your message, you can buy scientists to publish research that supports your agenda, you can buy lawyers to silenc…

And that, in a nutshell, is the problem. We are the government, and if you choose not to help make it what you want, it gets made for you by people who don't appreciate your point of view. Look no further than the "hell no" Republican tea-party caucus in the US Congress for a really visible example of people making the government the way they want it made while we sit on the sidelines. You don't do it for the money,…

"We are the government"? Come on, we're not in high school social studies class here. The government of the country I live in answers to bankers and oil companies, with the democratic process providing little more than a glossy sheen of respectability.

There is no meaningful difference between a process I cannot influence and a process which could theoretically be influenced if I could put more time and money into it than I actually have. Either way, it is best regarded as an immutable aspect of the universe, damage to be routed around if possible and accepted if not. If the system were amenable to change it would already have changed.

Re: The world needs at least 600M new jobs in the next decade for young people

#322

Post by roymurdock »

nostrademons wrote: post #263
roymurdock wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Speaking for myself (as a 22 year-old recent graduate) - I was brought up to respect my elders and to consider society as a mostly-altruistic, benevolent mass of humanity with a conscience bent more towards justice and meritocracy than corruption and inequality. I believed that the older generation who shape and structure society through government, industry, and academia were doing their absolute best to set future…

You don't see the people who are doing much better than their parents. The more self-aware of them know that there is nothing good that comes out of drawing attention to their good fortune. The less self-aware just assume that's how it is for everybody and don't think it's remarkable.

Sure, but if people were moving up on aggregate, we would see the middle class growing as children of the poor made their way up. Instead, we see the middle class shrinking, the poor growing, and the wealth collecting to a smaller proportion of the population as families are being pushed down due to the recession.

Re: The world needs at least 600M new jobs in the next decade for young people

#323

Post by DaveWalk »

ChuckMcM wrote: post #211

These stories are always interesting to read, both from what they say, and what they don't say. For example, do you know that world wide there is a shortage of people in various trades roles[1] ? (Welding, masonry, carpentry, electricians, etc) And why are their young people who are loading up on debt they can't afford to go to Ivy league schools when they can be just as successful going to state schools? How much pa…

> Assuming you are paying them a living wage, what economic output could [200-300 million people] accomplish that would be "worth" say 5 to 15 trillion dollars a year?

A good thought experiment! My initial thought was a spiritual successor to WPA-like projects of the depression, but I'm not very well-read on the economic outcomes. My layman view at least sees the humanitarian and creative output of such projects.

But your last sentence is key: would it be "worth" 5-15 trillion/year? Is there a way to "measure" such a number of WPA-like projects?

Re: The world needs at least 600M new jobs in the next decade for young people

#324

Post by petra »

mikepurvis wrote: post #243
petra wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree that there are a million things we could do, but at the end of the day,somebody has to be interested enough to pay for them. That was always the harder issue. But if you have ideas that fit that criteria, please share. We need such discussions.

The point of BI is that the government doesn't actually need to be involved in centrally planning all of the things that need doing— it's a huge amount of unnecessary bureaucracy when many of them are things people would love to do given freedom from having to immediately "earn a living". So the government doesn't pay you to pick up trash in the ravine near your home. The government pays you because you are a citizen…

Currently people who work volunteer more than people who don't work. Further more volunteers give only an average of 3 hours/week. That's not much, in the context of our discussion.

Re: The world needs at least 600M new jobs in the next decade for young people

#325

Post by logfromblammo »

cableshaft wrote: post #138
NotAPerson wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Job seekers are much better served spending an hour sending 10 focused applications than spending that same hour to send 100 sanitized applications. Let's assume that you have a 1 in 20 chance on the focused applications, and a 1 in 200 chance on the sanitized ones. Then the odds that you are offered at least one job, is 40.13% for the focused ones, and 39.42% for the sanitized ones. I'm not sure the emotional inve…

You're doing a cost-benefit analysis on a completely arbitrary guess and then using that as the basis for your conclusion? That doesn't work, sorry. For example, what if in actuality, all other things being equal, they had a 1 in 10 chance focused vs. 1 in 300 chance sanitized, then the results would be 100% chance for the focused versus 33% chance of a response with the sanitized ones. I just used the same thing you…

That's not how probability works.

10 trials with a 10% success rate yields a 65.13% chance for at least one success.

100 trials with a 0.33% success rate yields a 28.39% chance for at least one success.

You have to use the binomial probability theorem to determine any particular number of hits.

trials! / ( successes! * failures! ) * P_success ^ successes * P_failure ^ failures

Re: The world needs at least 600M new jobs in the next decade for young people

#326

Post by pvnick »

mhurron wrote: post #291
strickjb9 wrote: post #270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's called drinking the koolaid and it's very effective. Especially for establishing a career path. Once you "make it", you can loosen up. If you're only applying for a paycheck and not a career then I agree. You should just keep doing what you're doing.

Yes a good dose of self-loathing in order to get a job seems like a very healthy thing to do. It's called 'drinking the koolaid' because it's suicidal. Companies would be in a better situation if they realized that they were just a paycheck to their employees and not a damn lifestyle. That would cut into profits though, they'd have to give raises and improve compensation to keep people. Companies aren't looking for d…

Perhaps you should consider a career path that to you is more than a paycheck. There are zillions of options.

Re: The world needs at least 600M new jobs in the next decade for young people

#327

Post by s73v3r »

morgante wrote: post #84
lisper wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But I can't think of a way that the bubble could actually pop. Or what it would look like if it did. It would look like a social movement. It would look like tens of millions of young people realizing that they have fallen under the yoke of life-long indentured servitude to the older generation, and either 1) getting organized enough to get the law changed or, 2) saying "fuck it, I've got nothing left to lose" and…

> It would look like tens of millions of young people realizing that they have fallen under the yoke of life-long indentured servitude to the older generation Nobody forced them to take out loans. There are lots of options which don't involve crushing debt.

Like what?

Long gone are the days in which one could put themselves through school with a part time job.

Re: The world needs at least 600M new jobs in the next decade for young people

#328

Post by Swizec »

ChuckMcM wrote: post #231
roymurdock wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm afraid I don't have the money to devote my life to politics and I'm much too idealistic to be a good politician. In any event, I've come to the conclusion that the best way to influence the system is to have a lot of money to throw around. Then you can hire a guy to go make speeches for you and spread your message, you can buy scientists to publish research that supports your agenda, you can buy lawyers to silenc…

And that, in a nutshell, is the problem. We are the government, and if you choose not to help make it what you want, it gets made for you by people who don't appreciate your point of view. Look no further than the "hell no" Republican tea-party caucus in the US Congress for a really visible example of people making the government the way they want it made while we sit on the sidelines. You don't do it for the money,…

> You don't do it for the money

That doesn't put food on the table or keep the lights on. Going into politics is very very high on the maslov hierarchy.

But I'm sure my landlord will nod approvingly when I say "Oh, I'm not going to pay rent this month, I'm in politics you see. Changing the world. Don't got time for rent."

Re: The world needs at least 600M new jobs in the next decade for young people

#329

Post by tomp »

ap22213 wrote: post #76
nostromo wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree that student loan debt seems like an asset bubble -- in that the price of an education greatly exceeds the valuation justified by the fundamentals. But I can't think of a way that the bubble could actually pop. Or what it would look like if it did. Unlike housing, you can't walk away from your education; student loans are designed to prevent debtors from ever escaping their obligations. They're also guarantee…

Back around 2000, when I saw education costs rising (and was a big believer in market forces), I figured more educators would enter the market, and things would stabilize. It's been 15 years, and I haven't seen any new colleges or universities formed. What happened?

> and was a big believer in market forces

A non-market force happened. The government started guaranteeing student loans. Although honestly, even without that, I don't think people are good enough in estimating the extra payoff of education they haven't received yet over their 30+ years long career in the future, to properly evaluate the market value of college education; instead, they were just believing the old mantra "college is worth it".

Re: The world needs at least 600M new jobs in the next decade for young people

#330

Post by s73v3r »

learc83 wrote: post #266
zardo wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In year 20 he pays income tax on the forgiven amount. He'd better be saving up for that.

That's never going to happen. Too many people are affected for congress not to act before the tax bill comes due. The economic effects are too large for them to ignore.

Much like the economic effects of not passing a budget, or the economic effects of a temporary government shutdown for petty reasons?
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