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How I Teach Gerrymandering

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Re: How I Teach Gerrymandering

#31

I haven't read the article yet, but I was halfway expecting to see this picture: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/55/Ho...

That picture is great: by basically eliminating the geography it makes the math clear. If someone understands this picture, it will be easy to get a good idea about the more complicated real-world cases.

Re: How I Teach Gerrymandering

#32
post #17

Alternatively, by switching to popular vote, this problem, and many other problems could be avoided entirely. Above all things, is it fair that a voter in Massachusetts has exactly zero (and I mean exactly zero, not their fair 1/3.2e8 share) say over the election, while a voter in Ohio carries a lot of weight?

There's a very good reason why we don't use the popular vote for Presidential elections. It's precisely because without the electoral college, small states would receive zero attention on national politics. Why would anyone spend time courting votes anywhere north of New York when there's a much bigger payoff to be had working the rest of the eastern seaboard and the west coast? To use your examples of Massachusetts…

That might have been the rationale when it was originally introduced, but for the most part it has the opposite effect now, apart from a few very select "swing" states. Convince ~50k voters in Florida to switch allegiance and you win the state, and probably win the electoral college. Convince ~150k voters in Arkansas - a large proportion of that state's electorate - to switch allegiance and (i)it wouldn't affect who wins the state and (ii)it probably wouldn't affect who becomes President even if it turned blue.

Just because it means that local concerns in a couple of large states aren't going to be much of a factor in the presidency (Texas is more likely to freeze over than vote Democrat in the next election) doesn't mean that very many people in smaller states benefit from the electoral system.

There's the Senate to ensure that smaller states get their say in national politics.

Re: How I Teach Gerrymandering

#33
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

FPTP is heavily biased though - you end up in a situation where there's little point voting the way you want, because it won't be effective. Take the Greens, 3.8% of the vote with 0.15% of the final representation. And I bet that 3.8% would actually have been higher if people had felt like they wouldn't be throwing away their vote. I understand your sentiment, but I think "bit meh" is maybe a little uncharitable. Hal…

"you end up in a situation where there's little point voting the way you want, because it won't be effective." How much of that situation is due precisely to that mindset? It seems like circular logic to me. 10 Why not vote for the guy you want to win? 20 Because he won't get enough votes 30 Why won't he get enough votes? 40 Because not enough people will vote for him. 50 So why don't more people vote for him? 60 got…

Really? I'm in an area where one of the seats was hotly contested. I, like thousands of others swapped votes on a website where we pledged to vote on behalf of other people.

My local candidate narrowly won (the one I voted for, not the one I chose) – had a number of us not swapped votes, maybe that wouldn't have happened. For me that's a bit of a win of tactical voting - at least people were able to have some influence.

Another thing to note is that party voting and candidate voting are all rolled together. I actually wanted my local guy to win, but I didn't want to vote for him because I wanted to vote for a different party.

That's all very suboptimal.

Re: How I Teach Gerrymandering

#34
post #10

This is a great way to teach gerrymandering. It also illustrates the problem with 'Party X is evil, Party Y is not.' Political parties (stripping away all else) are groups of people who identify with one another. Take that one step further, and they're groups of people that identify with one another and believe their group is the best one to represent the whole . Or, if you are less idealistic, they want to win (I su…

> Once you believe those few things, it's easy to understand why politicians aren't evil, they're just vested in their group

So you judge politicians based not on their actions but on their supposed intentions?

> Maybe we could call it a constitutional republic?

Nice save. A constitutional republic is the true "a better government, one tweak at a time" since federalism is the laboratory of government.

No one even remembered that was the point of federalism here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10290172

Re: How I Teach Gerrymandering

#35
post #17

Alternatively, by switching to popular vote, this problem, and many other problems could be avoided entirely. Above all things, is it fair that a voter in Massachusetts has exactly zero (and I mean exactly zero, not their fair 1/3.2e8 share) say over the election, while a voter in Ohio carries a lot of weight?

There's a very good reason why we don't use the popular vote for Presidential elections. It's precisely because without the electoral college, small states would receive zero attention on national politics. Why would anyone spend time courting votes anywhere north of New York when there's a much bigger payoff to be had working the rest of the eastern seaboard and the west coast? To use your examples of Massachusetts…

[deleted]

Re: How I Teach Gerrymandering

#36
post #13
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> UK election outcomes have nothing to do with gerrymandering and everything to do with > being a multi-party democracy using a FPTP electoral system, which tends to boost > the representation of leading parties at the expense of smaller parties. More precisely, FPTP tends to boost the representation of leading national _and local_ parties (the latter being best exemplified by the SNP) at the expense of smaller natio…

FPTP is heavily biased though - you end up in a situation where there's little point voting the way you want, because it won't be effective. Take the Greens, 3.8% of the vote with 0.15% of the final representation. And I bet that 3.8% would actually have been higher if people had felt like they wouldn't be throwing away their vote. I understand your sentiment, but I think "bit meh" is maybe a little uncharitable. Hal…

The better example would have been UKIP 12.7% of the total votes, and 0.2%(1) of the total MPs, compared to SNP 4.7% of the total votes and 8.6%(56) of the total MPs.

It's just a shame that the Lib Dems wasted the chance for a more proportional voting system on a referendum for an unliked semi-proportional system (AV) that would have favoured them.

Re: How I Teach Gerrymandering

#37
In the UK under FPTP atleast, I can imagine there is also an effect or reverse gerrymandering or similar.

When it comes round to elections, generally the result of the majority of seats is already known, so they're classified by parties into stronghold (ours), stronghold (theirs), marginal.

When your located within a Labour stronghold, your unlikely to see as much pro-Conservative media, as they are better off spending their time campaigning in marginals and defending their reputations in existing strongholds.

Surely, this effect simply compounds strongholds, making them even harder to change hands overtime, without a significant event to cause the public opinion to shift significantly (e.g. the Scottish independence referendum).

The only way to fix such a problem, would be to randomise the boundaries each election, but this would cause various extra complexities.

Re: How I Teach Gerrymandering

#38
post #37

In the UK under FPTP atleast, I can imagine there is also an effect or reverse gerrymandering or similar. When it comes round to elections, generally the result of the majority of seats is already known, so they're classified by parties into stronghold (ours), stronghold (theirs), marginal. When your located within a Labour stronghold, your unlikely to see as much pro-Conservative media, as they are better off spendi…

It could also be fixed by not having any such boundaries whatsoever.

Re: How I Teach Gerrymandering

#39
post #37

In the UK under FPTP atleast, I can imagine there is also an effect or reverse gerrymandering or similar. When it comes round to elections, generally the result of the majority of seats is already known, so they're classified by parties into stronghold (ours), stronghold (theirs), marginal. When your located within a Labour stronghold, your unlikely to see as much pro-Conservative media, as they are better off spendi…

[deleted]

Re: How I Teach Gerrymandering

#40
post #37

In the UK under FPTP atleast, I can imagine there is also an effect or reverse gerrymandering or similar. When it comes round to elections, generally the result of the majority of seats is already known, so they're classified by parties into stronghold (ours), stronghold (theirs), marginal. When your located within a Labour stronghold, your unlikely to see as much pro-Conservative media, as they are better off spendi…

It could also be fixed by not having any such boundaries whatsoever.

This leads to a situation whereby elected representatives are assigned local constituencies, rather than having any particular link. Or atleast that's the argument which is always returned when people suggest a full PR system.

Personally I think larger multi-member constituencies under STV provide the best compromise.

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